Ron Brownstein: “The new round of national and state surveys this week generally showing President Obama clinging to a tenuous advantage over Republican Mitt Romney reinforce the conclusion that socially liberal, upscale white women may stand as the president’s indispensable line of defense in his struggle for reelection.”

“Both the national ABC/Washington Post survey released earlier this week, and the NBC/Marist Polls released Thursday in the battleground states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida show Obama retaining preponderant support among minority voters who were critical to his 2008 victory. Conversely, in almost all of the surveys, Obama faces a consistent pattern of erosion from his already meager 2008 levels of support among whites without a college education.”

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and his Republican allies have outspent Tom Barrett (D) and supportive groups more than 3-1 on TV ad buys during the three months leading up to the June 5 recall election, The Hotline reports.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) “is planning a swing-state summer bus tour that will also roll through South Carolina, the early presidential primary battleground,” the Miami Herald reports.

“It’s officially aimed at selling books, not winning votes, but the freshman senator and possible vice presidential pick is set to make multiple stops not just in his home state of Florida but also in North Carolina and Virginia, critical presidential battlegrounds this fall. On the way, he’ll make several appearances in South Carolina, where Republicans hold their first-in-the-South presidential primary.”

An American Son will be released in June.

Andrew Sullivan comments on Mark Halperin’s recent interview with Mitt Romney:

“If you do not feel the urge to cut out your own heart with a dull knife after reading it, there’s something wrong with you.”

“I’ve had a couple of those during the campaign, which have haunted me a
little bit, but I’m sure before this is over will haunt me a lot.”

— Mitt Romney, in an interview with Peggy Noonan, speaking about gaffes “that make me want to kick myself in the seat of my pants.”

A new Civitas Institute poll in North Carolina shows Mitt Romney just edging President Obama in the battleground state, 47% to 45%.

Jeff Barth (D), who is running in the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD), released a freewheeling campaign ad that could be the weirdest of this election cycle.

A glimpse of what makes it so special: Barth makes the point that that his daughters “have straight teeth, college degrees and husbands.”

[Read more…]

Paul Begala: “Quick readers’ guide to the 2012 polls: until the final two weeks, ignore the head-to-head horserace… Instead of obsessing about who’s up and who’s down, look at how folks view the direction of the country. When the ‘right direction’ number creeps up close to 50%, the incumbent is going to win. But when it plunges, get ready to back the moving van up to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. At this writing, that all-important indicator is a middling 31% — almost precisely equidistant from both an outright rejection of Obama and an incumbent’s safe reelection.”

Alan Abramowitz plugs the latest approval and GDP growth numbers into his presidential forecasting model and finds President Obama is expected to win re-election by a very narrow share of the two-party vote.

“Whether we base our prediction on President Obama’s 47% approval rating in the Gallup Poll in early May or a more sophisticated forecasting model incorporating economic conditions and the ‘time for change’ factor, it appears likely that we are headed for a very close election in November. Both models make Obama a slight favorite to win a second term. However, the final outcome will depend on the actual performance of the economy and the public’s evaluation of the president’s job performance in the months ahead. Those interested in assessing where the presidential race stands should focus on these two indicators rather than the day-to-day events of the campaign, which tend to dominate media coverage of the election.”

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: “Ever since the recall wars erupted in this battleground state, the Obama campaign has been faced with a dilemma: how involved does the President get in a polarizing fight with huge national overtones?”

“Less than two weeks to go before the June 5 election, the answer seems pretty clear. The Obama forces are pitching in with voter turnout and fund-raising appeals. But the President has avoided taking a vocal role in the conflict, and there is little expectation of an Obama visit to Wisconsin in the homestretch of the campaign.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Texas shows David Dewhurst (R) leads Ted Cruz (R) by a whopping 17 points in the GOP Senate primary, 46% to 29%

The main question on Tuesday will be whether Dewhurst can get over 50% and avoid a runoff.