James Fallows notes the diverging outlook between political “experts” who say Mitt Romney’s momentum may carry him to victory and quantitative analysts who insist President Obama is still the solid favorite for re-election.

“We have an exceptionally clear instance of people judging from their experience, their ‘bones,’ their personal instinct, etc that things are going one way… while data… point in the opposite direction.”

“I don’t know who’s right, but I note this as a moment of unusual clarity about two approaches to politics. Among the many things we’ll learn two weeks from now (and in the assessment afterwards) is which of these approaches to political analysis has revealed a profound flaw.”

President Obama spoke to the Des Moines Register yesterday on a phone call which was described as “an incredibly informative exchange of questions, answers and an insightful glimpse into the president’s vision for a second term. He made a genuine and passionate case for our endorsement and for reelection.”

But for some reason the White House declared the conversation “off-the-record.”

The newspaper makes its endorsement on Saturday night.

Update: The Des Moines Register was now allowed to publish the transcript of the Obama interview.

Mitt Romney distanced himself from Indiana U.S. Senate candidate Richard Mourdock’s (R) suggestion that pregnancy resulting from rape is “something God intended,” according to the Huffington Post.

A new DNC video points out that just yesterday Romney appeared in a new advertisement supporting Mourdock.

First Read: “Even though the Romney camp quickly distanced itself from Mourdock’s
remarks, the story could matter to Romney. Why? Because just as Romney
is trying to move to the middle — on domestic policy, foreign policy,
and social issues — the Mourdock story is a reminder how the
conservative bent of this Republican Party has been a drag on Romney.”

[Read more…]

Ryan Teague Beckwith has an exhaustive history of the memes of the Obama presidency, including the hope poster, Superman, the teleprompter, Spock, the Joker, the Jedi knight and “not bad.”

“Though they’re usually playful, memes can tell us a lot about what people really think about the president. They’ve tracked the hopes projected on him, the difficulties he’s faced in office and the fears of his opponents. And though they are generated and sustained by grassroots Internet users, Obama has played a key role in popularizing many of them.”

Emails show that White House and State Department officials “were advised two hours after attackers assaulted the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11 that an Islamic militant group had claimed credit for the attack,” Reuters reports.

Ginger White tells Daily Download that she plans to prove that she had a 13-year affair with Herman Cain in a new book which could prompt the former presidential candidate “to be a little more honest with his wife, because the details that I share, only she would know.”

While acknowledging that she was “getting all this help from Herman Cain” — as much as $6,000 a month — White was emphatic in declaring: “I am not a hooker. I am not a prostitute.”

She added: “My thing was, okay, I’ll take advantage of you before you take advantage of me. Let’s flip the script. I’m not gonna be your nice little hottie…You want to take my time away from my kids, my family, I’m going to make you sort of pay for it just a little bit.”

[Read more…]

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Murphy (D)with a 6-point lead over Linda McMahon (R) in the U.S. Senate race,49% to 43%.

National Journal notes the poll closely mirrors the results of an internal poll the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released Wednesday shows Murphy up by five points, 46% to 40%.

A WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race by five points, 48% to 43%.

“Life is that gift from God. I think that even when life begins in that
horrible situation of rape, that it is something God intended to happen.”

— Indiana U.S. Senate candidate Richard Mourdock (R), at a debate tonight with Rep. Joe Donnelly (D).

[Read more…]

A top adviser to Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) said Mitt Romney will lose Nevada this year, the Las Vegas Sun reports.

Said Pete Ernaut: “I think Obama will carry the state somewhere (between 1-3 percentage points), something like that.”

Donald Trump “is to claim that he has unearthed divorce papers of Michelle Obama and the President,” the Daily Mail reports.

“It is alleged that the eccentric real estate mogul will claim that the documents show the First Lady and the President were at one point in their two decades of marriage seriously considering splitting up.”

Trump claimed earlier today that he was set to make an announcement on Wednesday that would be “bordering on gigantic” and that it could change the presidential race.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) called himself a “one-man wrecking crew” on Mitt Romney’s refusal to release his tax returns and warned of “17 angry old white men” spending vast sums on political advertising as he tried to rouse Democratic voters, the Las Vegas Sun reports.

Reid added that Romney was a “plastic man running for president who changes his position every chance he gets. He isn’t someone who should represent this country.”

The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama moving slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%.

However, Obama “maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes.”

Other tracking polls: IBD/TIPP shows Obama up 47% to 45%, Rasmussen shows Romney leading 50% to 46%, Gallup has Romney ahead 51% to 46% and UPI/CVoter has the race tied at 48% to 48%.

A new Pew Research poll finds that 63% of the public says the presidential campaign is interesting, while 28% say it is dull. Last month, 53% found the campaign interesting.

From January through June, majorities said the campaign was dull, and no more than about four-in-ten found it interesting.

Nate Silver: “Unlikely does not equal impossible, but Ohio is central enough in the
electoral math that it now seems to matter as much as the other 49
states put together. I am not sure whether I should be congratulating
you or consoling you if you happen to be reading this in Toledo.”

Donald Trump told Fox News that he’ll reveal “very big” news about President Obama by Wednesday but declined to give any hints about his plan.

Said Trump: “Something very, very big concerning the president of the United States. It’s going to be very big. I know one thing — you will cover it in a very big fashion.”

“Anybody who thinks those states are in the bag is half in the bag themselves.”

— Obama adviser David Axelrod, quoted by Greg Sargent, about Mitt Romney locking up North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida.

He also noted, “We have added millions to TV spending in each of these states. We are doubling down.”