Quants vs. The Pros

James Fallows notes the diverging outlook between political “experts” who say Mitt Romney’s momentum may carry him to victory and quantitative analysts who insist President Obama is still the solid favorite for re-election.

“We have an exceptionally clear instance of people judging from their experience, their ‘bones,’ their personal instinct, etc that things are going one way… while data… point in the opposite direction.”

“I don’t know who’s right, but I note this as a moment of unusual clarity about two approaches to politics. Among the many things we’ll learn two weeks from now (and in the assessment afterwards) is which of these approaches to political analysis has revealed a profound flaw.”