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Nate Silver Goes to Hollywood?

November 14, 2012 at 12:30 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A “high-level talent agency” tells the Hollywood Reporter that Nate Silver “is attracting strong interest from the industry. This person believes Silver could try his hand at everything from box-office analysis to a correspondent gig on a television news program, not to mention radio shows and public speaking.”

Silver confirms he “has been approached with offers from TV producers, is pondering a follow-up to his best-selling book The Signal and the Noise (which hit No. 2 on Amazon post-election) and has been courted by Los Angeles-based talent agencies.”

McCain Pledges Filibuster if Rice Nominated

November 14, 2012 at 11:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said “point-blank” that he would oppose the nomination of U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice to replace Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, National Journal reports.

Asked if he would do anything to block her, including filibuster, he bluntly answered “yes.”

How Romney Killed Reaganomics

November 14, 2012 at 11:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Michael Tomasky: “Here’s something that happened in this election that has been largely overlooked but I think is a very big deal indeed. Trickle-down economics died last Tuesday. The post-election chatter has been dominated by demographics, Latinos, women, and the culture war. But economics played a strong and even pivotal role in this election too, and Reaganomics came out a huge loser, while the Democrats have started to wrap their arms around a simple, winning alternative: the idea that government must invest in the middle class and not the rich. It’s middle-out economics instead of trickle-down, and it won last week and will keep on winning.”


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Hillary Clinton Gets Early 2016 Endorsement

November 14, 2012 at 11:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Buffalo News: “We’ve barely finished a bruising, expensive campaign for president, but it’s not too early to be thinking about who would make an excellent candidate for the presidency in 2016 – particularly if there is a conspicuously capable individual already on the political scene. There is such a candidate, and it should surprise no one that her name is Hillary Clinton.”

Florida Remains an Election Disaster Area

November 14, 2012 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

WSVN-TV: “Nearly a thousand ballots that were not included in Florida’s final count have been found in a warehouse in Broward County.”

Rick Hasen notes election officials say this is “routine” in the county.

Petraeus Will Testify Before Senate

November 14, 2012 at 10:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gen.. David Petraeus will testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein told Politico. But the exact schedule has not been set for his testimony.

Republicans Will Increase Taxes But Not Rates

November 14, 2012 at 9:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “They’re willing to give up additional REVENUES; they just don’t want to see tax RATES go up. The two sides actually aren’t that far apart. The question is whether they can agree on a revenue target for tax reform. That’s Step 1; Step 2 is how the temporary agreement is forged regarding the tax rates for 2013, sequestration, payroll tax, etc. The White House’s view: If you let the Bush tax rates expire for the Top 2%, it makes negotiating the issues surrounding sequestration (even the farm bill!) a lot easier. But the hurdle is big: getting the votes in the House. No Republican wants to vote for a tax RATE hike; it’s likely a primary suicide mission.”

“Ironically, the GOP may end up giving the president and Democrats MORE cover on taxes by agreeing to a revenue goal within tax reform, essentially, covering up tax hikes while the politicians can claim they’ve lowered tax RATES. Ah, the politics of the now vs. the politics of the long term. It’s the GOP’s challenge in managing its own base right now.”

Financial Times: Republicans shift stance on taxing the wealthy.

Wonk Wire: Romney adviser calls for raising (some) taxes.

King Picks the Democrats

November 14, 2012 at 9:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After months of speculation and sidestepping the question, Sen.-elect Angus King (I-ME) announced what many observers had already predicted: he will caucus with the Democratic party when he officially assumes his seat in the Senate, the Portland Press Herald reports.

His reasoning was simple: “Affiliating with the majority makes more sense.”

Pelosi Will Seek Leadership Post Again

November 14, 2012 at 9:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told Democratic colleagues
that she wants them to reelect her as House minority leader when they
return from Thanksgiving break, National Journal reports.

No one is expected to challenge her for the top House Democratic spot as a result.

Washington Post: “She said she felt compelled to remain in leadership as Congress and
President Obama embark on an effort to resolve a fiscal crisis that
could jeopardize core government programs. And she vowed to work to
limit the role of money in politics and to empower women in the
workplace and the political arena.”

Liberals in the Senate

November 14, 2012 at 9:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “There’s a new gang of senators who ran their campaigns as unabashed progressives and won… But the question in a divided Senate is whether the new liberals will be hard-liners who refuse to compromise with the tea party types on the other side of the aisle or negotiators, like Kennedy, who made deals with Republicans ranging from Ronald Reagan to Rep. John Boehner to George W. Bush. In the modern Senate, it’s a lot harder to do the kind of work that won Kennedy fans on the Republican side.”

Candidates Eye Potential Senate Vacancy in Massachusetts

November 14, 2012 at 8:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Potential candidates in Massachusetts “are quietly scrambling to position themselves to run for Sen. John Kerry’s seat if President Obama appoints Kerry to be his next secretary of state, or secretary of defense,” the Boston Globe reports.

“A Senate vacancy would probably create a comeback scenario for Senator Scott Brown, the Republican who lost the seat to Democrat Elizabeth Warren in last week’s election. He has sent clear signals in his concession speech and in recent interviews that he has an eye on another run.”

“Among the high-profile Democratic officeholders who are expressing interest are three of the state’s congressmen: Edward J. Markey of Malden, the 66-year old dean of the congressional delegation; Michael E. Capuano of Somerville, who ran second to Martha Coakley in the 2009 Senate primary; and Stephen F. Lynch of South Boston, a conservative Democrat who won his seat in a 2001 special election in which several liberals divided the vote on the left.”

The Petraeus Scandal Timeline

November 14, 2012 at 7:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Week: “New twists and dime-novel characters pop up daily, but the basic story of the celebrated general’s downfall is falling into place.”

Warner Big Favorite for Virginia Governor

November 14, 2012 at 6:48 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds that if Sen. Mark Warner (D) wants his old job as governor back next year, he’s the overwhelmingly favorite.

Warner, who says he will decide whether to run for governor or remain in the U.S. Senate by Thanksgiving, beats Lt. Bill Gov. Bolling (R), 53% to 33%, and tops Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R), 52% to 34%.

If Terry McAuliffe (D) is the Democratic candidate, he edges Bolling, 38% to 36%, and Cuccinelli, 41% to 37%.

Lee Atwater on the Southern Strategy

November 14, 2012 at 6:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Nation dug up an interview with the infamous GOP strategist Lee Atwater explaining how Republicans can win the vote of racists without sounding racist themselves.

Said Atwater: “You start out in 1954 by saying, ‘Nigger, nigger, nigger.’ By 1968 you can’t say ‘nigger’ — that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites…. ‘We want to cut this,’ is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than ‘Nigger, nigger.'”

Most Support Path to Citizenship

November 14, 2012 at 6:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds most Americans support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, 57% to 39%, an issue that may be gaining traction in Congress in the aftermath of the elections.

Meanwhile, 51% support gay marriage, slightly more than half for the fifth time straight in ABC/Post polls since March 2011.

Obama Seeks $1.6 Trillion Tax Increase

November 13, 2012 at 9:16 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama “will begin budget negotiations with congressional leaders Friday by calling for $1.6 trillion in additional tax revenue over the next decade, far more than Republicans are likely to accept and double the $800 billion discussed in talks with GOP leaders during the summer of 2011, the Wall Street Journal reports.

A Confederacy of Takers

November 13, 2012 at 7:58 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dana Millbank notes that a “large number of patriotic Americans, mostly from states won by Mitt Romney last week, have petitioned the White House to let them secede. They should be careful about what they wish for.”

“Red states receive, on average, far more from the federal government in expenditures than they pay in taxes. The balance is the opposite in blue states. The secession petitions, therefore, give the opportunity to create what would be, in a fiscal sense, a far more perfect union.”

“Among those states with large numbers of petitioners asking out: Louisiana (more than 28,000 signatures at midday Tuesday), which gets about $1.45 in federal largess for every $1 it pays in taxes; Alabama (more than 20,000 signatures), which takes $1.71 for every $1 it puts in; South Carolina (26,000), which takes $1.38 for its dollar; and Missouri (22,000), which takes $1.29 for its dollar.”

Do Campaigns Really Matter?

November 13, 2012 at 7:22 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Pacific Standard: “We all know that most voters decide who to vote for well before the campaigns begin. In political science research, this is called the ‘minimal effects’ thesis. Basically the vast majority of the voters vote how we would expect them to long before the election. The first study to investigate this phenomenon focused on voters during the 1940 election. Researchers found that only 8 percent of voters changed their preference over the course of the campaign. In 70 years, not much has changed.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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