A new study suggests President Obama’s health care reform effort cost Democrats their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2010 election.

Washington Post: “The study ran 10,000 simulations of a scenario in which all vulnerable Democrats voted against the health care bill and found that the rejections would have saved Democrats an average of 25 seats, which would have made the House parties close to a tie. (Republicans won 63 seats overall, but the study suggests around 25 of them would have been salvaged.) In 62% of the simulations, Democrats were able to keep the House.”

A Mitt Romney campaign official told supporters in an email that Romney is within one point of victory in Alabama and can “end this process” by winning the state on Tuesday, Politico reports.

An Alabama poll released earlier today shows Romney two points behind Newt Gingrich. It’s not clear what poll the campaign aide was citing.

A new Mass Insight poll in Massachusetts shows Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) leading challenger Elizabeth Warren (D), 52% to 42%.

Key finding: “While 58% thought it was good for the state to have ‘an independent Republican like Scott Brown representing us in Congress,’ and 39% disagreed, voters were clearly begrudging about watching Republicans retake the Senate. Forty-nine percent thought the state needed to elect a Democrat to prevent the chamber from going Republican, 47% disagreed.”

In response to a question about gun control today, Mitt Romney claimed he owns guns himself.

Said Romney: “I believe in the second amendment, I’ll protect the second amendment, I have guns myself. Not going to tell you where they are. Don’t have them on myself either, alright.”

However, ABC News reports that in 2007, “after Romney claimed that he did have guns he later retracted his statement, saying that he himself does not have guns but his sons do.”

Just published: Defeat at Waterloo: Fighting on the Front lines of the Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign by Amanda Wilkerson.

Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) announced today that he would run for U.S. Senate, “setting the stage for a competitive election year in Nebraska as Democrats fight to retain the seat and Republicans battle to take it back,” the Omaha World Herald reports.

“Kerrey acknowledged that his thought-making process may have been unconventional — he initially said he was out, then said he was in — but he ultimately decided he wanted to be a part of the national debate.”

Said Kerrey: “Doing things the conventional way has never been my strong suit. This afternoon, I will file to become a candidate for the United States Senate in Nebraska. I came to realize that my previous decision was the easy one, not the right one.”

“I gotta press the button. That will be my heavy lift in terms of manufacturing.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by the Washington Post, while touring a family-owned fence-post maker in Ohio.

A new Middle Tennessee State University poll shows Rick Santorum way ahead in next week’s Tennessee GOP primary with 40%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 11%.

First Read: “The biggest impact of Romney’s narrow victory in Michigan: It silences the talk of a white knight riding to the GOP’s rescue. While such an outcome might not have occurred even if Romney lost — was a Christie/Daniels/Jeb Bush really going to jump in this late in the game? — last night pretty much closed the door on that kind of speculation, even if Romney struggles next week on Super Tuesday (which is entirely possible).”

But Michelle Cottle disagrees, saying “don’t look for the dream to die anytime soon. Mitt Romney’s win wasn’t pretty and will continue to fuel concerns that the GOP electorate, despite its visceral hatred of Obama, won’t be as fired up as it needs to be to kick ass in November.”

Steve Kornacki notes Sen. Olympia Snowe’s (R-ME) retirement was a huge gift to Democrats.

“A pickup in Maine would alter the playing field nationally, where Democrats can survive a net loss of three seats and still retain control of the chamber (if Obama is reelected, with Vice President Joe Biden breaking a 50-50 tie). The party is facing potential losses in Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico and elsewhere, with only two obvious pickup targets (Massachusetts and Nevada) — until now. If there is a second term for the Obama White House, Snowe may end up being a lot more helpful to it than she was in the first term.”

First Read says Snowe’s exit “gives Democrats a better than 50%-50% chance of holding the Senate in November. If Democrats win in Maine and Massachusetts, then they’ve moved the bar to Republicans needing to win five seats (if Obama loses) and six (if he wins). We can see how Republicans get to four (North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, and Missouri). And we can see how they maybe get to five (adding Virginia or Wisconsin or Ohio). But six? That would mean that Republicans would need to win in a New Mexico or a Florida or a Michigan.”