Nate Silver: “The argument for a base strategy is something like this: there are very few undecided voters left, and hardly anything has moved the polls. With the election being so close, the contest will come down to turnout. So get your voters as motivated as possible.”
“A risk for Mr. Romney, however, is that even with a favorable turnout, the Republican coalition may have become slightly too narrow for him to win, given that the party is struggling with Hispanics and other minority voters.”
The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds Mitt Romney has moved into a narrow two point lead over President Obama in a small bounce for him from the Republican National Convention, 44% to 42%.
Romney entered the week with Obama leading by four points, 46% to 42%.
The Crimson: “Harvard College’s disciplinary board is investigating nearly half of the 279 students who enrolled in Government 1310: ‘Introduction to Congress’ last spring for allegedly plagiarizing answers or inappropriately collaborating on the class’ final take-home exam.”
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Rep. Paul Ryan drew just slightly more than 20 million viewers for his speech last night at the GOP convention, significantly less than the 37.2 million that Sarah Palin attracted four years ago, Businessweek reports.
Gabrielle Sherman: “Last night’s kerfuffle between Sarah Palin and Fox News was a classic display of Sarah Palin being, well, Sarah Palin. But her Facebook outburst complaining about Fox canceling her appearance at the Republic National Convention reveals something deeper about Palin’s often rocky relationship with the network. Palin’s contract is up in January, and according to sources, Fox News executives are now weighing what kind of deal they would sign, if they sign one at all.”
Democrats have a presence at the GOP festivities in Tampa, the New York Times reports, “a 30-person pop-up shop in a storefront one block beyond the security perimeter of the Tampa Bay Times Forum, where the Republican National Convention is being held, and dedicated to pushing back against the hurricane-strength messaging of the Republicans.”
Said Obama adviser Stephanie Cutter: “There are now 70 days left until the election, and we’re not going to cede any one of them.”
A federal court blocked Texas from enforcing “a strict new voter identification law, ruling that the state had failed to prove that the mandate would not disproportionately suppress turnout among eligible voters who are members of minority groups,” the New York Times reports.
Rick Hasen: “Texas is likely to appeal this case to the Supreme Court, and I would expect to see an application for an emergency injunction allowing Texas to use its voter id law during the upcoming election. If this happens, this will be a major question for the Roberts Court, and it would have to be decided in short order. Given the closeness to the election, it is not clear to me that even if the Supreme Court disagrees on some of the analysis with the district court that it would grant such emergency relief.”
The Tea Party — which energized and even seemed to overtake the Republican Party in 2010 — has been virtually invisible at this Republican National Convention, BuzzFeed reports.
“Not a single one of the 38 speakers during the convention’s key prime time hours has even mentioned the phrase, according to an examination of their transcripts — a sign both of Romney’s own distance from the movement and that polls have suggested that voters view the movement negatively.”
That was quick: Crossroads Generation is out with a new ad featuring the imagery of the faded Obama poster mentioned in Paul Ryan’s GOP convention speech last night.
BuzzFeed compiles clips of the worst jokes from speakers at the Republican National Convention.
Romney adviser Russ Schriefer wasn’t very revealing to Politico when asked about tonight’s convention speaker that has not yet been announced: “If there was a mystery speaker, then it wouldn’t be a mystery anymore.”
Update: Multiple media organizations report the mystery speaker will be actor Clint Eastwood.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Missouri finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) leading embattled challenger Todd Akin (R) by just one point, 45% to 44%.
Key findings: 53% of voters say that they accept Akin’s apology for his comments last week to 40% who do not.
Meanwhile, a Wenzel Strategies survey done for the Family Research Council finds Akin leading 45% to 42%.
Really great vintage-style political postcards: Democrats, Republicans and Combo Set.
Jonathan Cohn: “Paul Ryan’s speech on Wednesday night played well with GOP loyalists in Tampa, with television viewers across the country, and may eventually resonate with the swing voters who will decide the election. But what Ryan actually said last night is objectionable because he was so brazenly willing to twist the truth. At least five times, Ryan misrepresented the facts. And while none of the statements were new, the context was. It’s one thing to hear them on a thirty-second television spot or even in a stump speech before a small crowd. It’s something else entirely to hear them in a prime time address, as a vice presidential nominee accepting his party’s nomination and speaking to the entire country.”
Ezra Klein: “Ryan’s claims weren’t even arguably true. You simply can’t say the president hasn’t released a deficit reduction plan. The plan is right here. You simply can’t say the president broke his promise to keep your GM plant open. The decision to close the plant was made before he entered office — and, by the way, the guy at the top of your ticket opposed the auto bailout. You simply can’t argue that the Affordable Care Act was a government takeover of the health-care system. My doctor still works for Kaiser Permanente, a private company that the government does not own. You simply can’t say that Obama, who was willing to follow historical precedent and sign a clean debt ceiling increase, caused the S&P downgrade, when S&P clearly said it was due to congressional gridlock and even wrote that it was partly due to the GOP’s dogmatic position on taxes.”
First Read: “We want to make a final point about Ryan’s acceptance speech, and it’s the same one we made yesterday: Don’t get carried away by a strong VP speech; it typically doesn’t have a long shelf life. Think Ferraro in ’84, Bentsen in ’88, Kemp in ’96, Lieberman in ’00, and Edwards in ’04. The exception, of course, is Sarah Palin in ’08. But she isn’t the rule.”
“The demographics race we’re losing badly. We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by the Washington Post, on the Republican party’s challenge.
First Read: “If tonight’s speech is to be successful, Romney has to meet four objectives. One, he has to better introduce himself to the American public; it remains striking that after running for president for much of the past five years, voters still don’t have more than a two-dimensional understanding of the soon-to-be nominee. Two, he needs to convince the public that, while he looks the part, he’s the man Americans are comfortable seeing on their TVs for the next four years. Three, he has to try to close the empathy gap; our most recent NBC/WSJ poll found President Obama holding a 22-point advantage on who cares more about average people. And four, he needs to put some meat on the policy bone to make the case how his plans could actually work better than Obama’s — and how they are different from the past Republican administration. If four hours are going to decide this presidential election, the first hour comes tonight.”
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush said he would open his speech to the Republican National Convention tonight “with a defense of his brother George because President Obama keeps running him down,” Politico reports.
Said Bush: “I just feel compelled to do this because almost every day I hear the current incumbent feeling compelled to push down the past to make himself look better. When I was growing up, we were spanked when that happened.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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