“Many progressive donors think President Obama has it in the bag. But he doesn’t even have it in the shopping cart yet, much less in the bag.”

— Paul Begala, in an interview with Greg Sargent, saying Democratic donors need to step up.

Charles Mahtesian
believes that Rep. Allen West (R-FL), best known for his strong Tea
Party affiliation and controversial attacks on Democrats, is likely to
run for president in 2016 or 2020.

“The conservative congressman
hasn’t explicitly said as much, but he’s following a path blazed by
Michele Bachmann, Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul… Thanks to Internet and
direct mail fundraising and the national platform offered by cable news
shows, even a House backbencher can now build a well-financed national
following. And Barack Obama’s victory, just four years removed from the
Illinois state Senate, suggests the boundaries surrounding the question
of office-holding experience have been erased.”

Bill Clinton’s “recent endorsements in a handful of House primaries have conjured up memories of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, as he has sought to reward his wife’s supporters and candidates with loyalties to the couple,” Roll Call reports.

Said one Democratic fundraiser: “There’s nobody in this business that keeps score like the Clintons.”

The AP
reports that Rev. Robert Jeffress, an evangelical leader in Texas, has
called on Christians to support Mitt Romney “in spite of his Mormon
faith.”

Jeffress has previously called Mormonism a cult and said Mitt Romney is not really a Christian.

A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters nationally with the two now tied at 46% each.

Alex Burns: “This is what you’d expect to see at the outset of the general election, as the challenger candidate solidifies his stature as his party’s nominee, but before either campaign really unloads on the other in a comprehensive, expensive way. But it’s helpful to Romney to get a spate of polling that may reassure voters and GOP leaders that his poor favorability rating won’t stop him from making this thing competitive.”

Jesse Kelly (R) won the Republican primary and will face Ron Barber (D) in a special election to fill the remaining months of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ (D-AZ) term in Congress, the Arizona Republic reports.

“Kelly, who lost narrowly to Giffords in 2010, had a campaign ready to go when Giffords resigned in late January to focus on recovering from a 2011 shooting outside a Tucson constituent event. The 30-year-old Kelly benefited from voters knowing his name and having a strong base of ‘tea party’ support built two years ago, when Republicans reclaimed a majority in the House.”

“As Giffords’ former district director, Barber is a formidable candidate… He is also forever linked to the 2011 tragedy, which left six
dead and 13 wounded, including Barber, who survived shots to the leg and
face.”

Mitt Romney told CNBC that there’s precedent for presidential candidates releasing just two years of tax returns.

Said Romney: “Well, we’ve had people run for president before, and they’ve released two years. John Kerry released two years of taxes… I’ve released one already, put the estimate out for the next year. We’ll have two years of taxes.”

But Think Progress points out Kerry actually released 20 years of tax returns when he was a candidate in 2004.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) told ABC News he’s “not looking to become vice president” but left the door open to a conversation about it with Mitt Romney.

Said Christie: “But I also think it is extraordinarily arrogant for you to say you won’t even listen to the nominee of your party — especially for me. It’s someone who I’ve been supporting since last October vigorously around the country — that I wouldn’t take a call from Mitt Romney.”

Meanwhile, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds Christie is the early leader of the GOP’s 2016 field.

“If Barack Obama becomes the president in November, again, I will be either be dead or in jail by this time next year.”

— Musician Ted Nugent, stumping for Mitt Romney at the NRA Convention.

[Read more…]

The Des Moines Register reports that a week after he quit the presidential race, a fundraising letter from Rick Santorum arrived in Iowa mailboxes saying, “It truly frightens me to think what’ll happen if Mitt Romney is the nominee.”

“The blunt message quickly had Republicans here speculating: Did Santorum order up the mailer right before he suspended his campaign on April 10, so its timing was just a simple and understandable mistake? Or, did Santorum, who is still raising money and possibly not quite ready to come to grips with his loss, send this wording out deliberately?”

A new Pew Research poll finds President Obama holds a slim 49% to 45% advantage over Mitt Romney nationally.

Obama’s lead has narrowed since last month, when he had a 12-point advantage, though it is comparable to margins from earlier this year.

Most interesting finding: “The gender gap remains comparable to those in previous surveys during
the current campaign, as well as past election cycles; women favor Obama
by a 53% to 40% margin; among men voters, 50% favor Romney, while 44%
back Obama. Obama has lost ground among both men and women at about the
same rate over the past month.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows President Obama starts the general election with a 5 point edge over Mitt Romney, 50% to 45%.

Obama’s approval is now 51% in the state while 45% who disapprove.

This is the biggest lead Obama’s had in Florida over five polls since the beginning of 2011.

Josh Kraushaar
notices that President Obama’s reelection messaging against Mitt Romney
has shifted away from “charges of the expected GOP nominee as a
flip-flopper, and in its place have been a barrage of attacks portraying
him as the consummate plutocrat.”

“Two lessons to pick up from this:
1) Many Democratic strategists weren’t sold on the effectiveness of the
flip-flop charge because they worried that it unwittingly suggested a
pragmatic side to Romney’s politics, something that could be appealing
to independents… 2) Even though Obama has fundamental problems winning
over working-class whites, his campaign appears to be going all-in on
trying to capture enough of those votes against Romney, knowing it may
be their best chance at threading the victory needle.”