Nate Silver looks the impact of a vice presidential nominee’s home state on the ticket’s ultimate success and finds it is “is normally quite modest — perhaps two or three percentage points on average, if a little more in some cases and a little less in others. To be sure, two or three percentage points in the right swing state is not trivial, but it is probably not enough to outweigh the other strengths and weaknesses that a vice presidential candidate could potentially impart onto the ticket.”
“Indeed, presidential campaigns in recent years have largely abided by
this principle, with recent vice presidential nominees hailing from
states like Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Wyoming that did
not figure to be competitive.”