Nate Silver
notes that while the Republican presidential primary has come down to
collecting delegates on the way to the convention, “the G.O.P.’s
delegate-selection rules are exceptionally complicated and ambiguous.
Many delegates could go to the convention in Tampa either loosely
pledged or entirely unbound to any of the candidates.”

“That means
there will be some wiggle room in the math. Doing things like winning
key states, leading in the aggregate popular vote, leading in national
polls and appearing to have the momentum at the end of the process may
influence the behavior of these unbound delegates. If a candidate can
make a credible claim to having a mandate from the voters, they might
line up behind him. If his claim is poor, they could block his
nomination.”

The Hotline: “The
White House continues to talk about its ability to contest Arizona, but
polling data suggest otherwise — and underscores the fact that
immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and
Democrats… While the Hispanic growth in the state is significant, the
percentage of those who are registered is relatively low – and there
have been few signs of any significant uptick in political
participation. The numbers also provide a cautionary tale to the party’s
likely Senate nominee, Richard Carmona, who is an attractive recruit
because of his Hispanic heritage, but could lose support from white
voters over his opposition to SB 1070… There was a good reason
why Janet Napolitano didn’t run for Senate — her involvement in the
White House’s lawsuit against the state immigration law would have
handicapped her campaign from the start.”

Wyoming state representatives “advanced legislation to launch a study into what Wyoming should do in the event of a complete economic or political collapse in the United States,” the Casper Star Tribune reports.

The bill “would create a state-run government continuity task force, which would study and prepare Wyoming for potential catastrophes, from disruptions in food and energy supplies to a complete meltdown of the federal government.”

A new Vanderbilt University poll in Tennessee finds Rick Santorum leading the GOP presidential primary with 33%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 13% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

That said, an additional 27% “either said they wouldn’t vote for any of the four major remaining candidates, didn’t know how they would vote or refused to answer.”

The Tennessee primary is on March 6.

“Whether Mitt Romney wins or loses the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday, his advisers are warning donors and other supporters to prepare for a longer, more bruising and more expensive fight for the Republican presidential nomination that may not be settled until at least May,” the New York Times reports.

“That is prompting a new round of intensified fund-raising by his financial team, which had hoped by this point to be collecting money for a general election match with President Obama. The campaign is increasingly trying to quell anxiety among Republican leaders, while intently focusing on the mechanics of accumulating delegates needed to secure the nomination.”

The Kansas City Star editorial page asked economist Art Laffer — “yes, he of the famous Laffer curve” — whether Rick Santorum would be the Republican presidential nominee.

“Laffer’s answer was non-verbal. His hands went up on each side of his head. He leaned forward, bug-eyed at the imagined horror of Santorum as the GOP nominee — a response that reflects the fears of many on the Republican side.”

The DNC put together a video of highlights from Mitt Romney’s speech before a nearly empty stadium yesterday.

[Read more…]

Ann Romney told an audience in Michigan that she has decided “no more debates” for her husband, according to BuzzFeed.

Said Mrs. Romney: “If we’re going to do another debate, he’s going to sit in the audience and watch me.”

John Heilemann notes many Republicans “are already looking past 2012. If either Romney or Santorum gains the nomination and then falls before Obama, flubbing an election that just months ago seemed eminently winnable, it will unleash a GOP apocalypse on November 7 — followed by an epic struggle between the regulars and red-hots to refashion the party. And make no mistake: A loss is what the GOP’s political class now expects.”

Said GOP strategist Ed Rollins: “Six months before this thing got going, every Republican I know was saying, ‘We’re gonna win, we’re gonna beat Obama.’ Now even those who’ve endorsed Romney say, “My God, what [an effing] mess.”‘

“I’m in the camp that believes that these folks are being refined and improved by this very difficult process.”

— Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), quoted by NBC News, dismissing the notion that a long and bruising primary is cause for concern from Republicans.

A new American Research Group poll shows Mitt Romney with a slim lead in the Arizona GOP primary at 39%, followed by Rick Santorum at 35%, Newt Gingrich at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.

A new Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll in Georgia shows Newt Gingrich with a double-digit lead over the GOP presidential field at 38%, followed by Rick Santorum at 25%, Mitt Romney at 19% and Ron Paul at 4%.

The number of undecided voters remains at 13% before the March 6 primary.

Politico caught Rick Santorum in a lie this afternoon after he “slipped away from the campaign trail” to speak to a super PAC fundraiser, despite denying previous reports that he planned to do so.