Sean Trende: “The problem, however, is that elections are largely referenda on the incumbent. It takes something very powerful for the people to choose an unpopular incumbent over a challenger of any stripe… In a presidential campaign, both candidates are incredibly well-funded, to the point where they can achieve saturation media coverage in most major markets and still have money left over. This is especially true for Obama, who is a known quantity. His spending just isn’t likely to do that much to change the race, unless he hits upon an argument that disqualifies his opponent.”

Likewise, “I wouldn’t expect Romney to achieve a major breakthrough anytime soon. The economy isn’t so bad that it would cause people to give up utterly on Obama. It is improving, albeit more slowly than he — or the country — would like. That could change, but if it doesn’t, Romney is not going to run away with this election.”

The Atlantic notes that “underwhelming recruitment” by will make it tough for Republicans to win a majority in the U.S. Senate.

A new Economist/YouGov poll shows Mitt Romney with a small edge over President Obama nationally, 44% to 43%.

David Bernstein thinks Mitt Romney’s “shadow years” at Bain Capital are an important story.

“First of all, there’s Romney’s ‘buck stops here’ problem; the buck never seems to stop with him. Everything bad that’s ever happened under him — especially involving Bain — he always blames on other people, and that just isn’t very Presidential. The shadow years look like that in a huge way.”

“It also reinforces the image of Romney as part of the specially insulated corporate overlord class, who get to manipulate the rules so that they always end up the winner… He apparently was able to make a lot of money (or at least, what seems like a lot of money to most people) for being president, owner, and investor in a company while actually being off in Utah doing a completely different full-time job.”

“And, of course, he was apparently freely signing off on anything required of the president and owner, without, apparently, feeling like that meant he actually had any responsibility for anything happening at the company. It looks like legal, regulatory, and fiduciary responsibilities don’t really mean anything to super-wealthy executive types — not like when regular people sign employment documents, or mortgage documents, and so on.”

“Elections are about numbers, and right now the president’s are bad.”

— Karl Rove, writing in the Wall Street Journal.

President Obama’s campaign steps up the attacks on Mitt Romney’s personal finances in a tough new video.

[Read more…]

Alan Abramowitz updates his presidential election forecasting model and finds “growing partisan polarization has important implications for forecasting
the outcome of the 2012 presidential election. With the American
electorate both closely and deeply divided along party lines, we can
expect another close election this year — probably closer than the 2008
election and possibly as close as the 2000 election.”

“There is only one prediction that seems very safe right now — it’s going to be a long election night.”

Mitt Romney “has repeatedly sought to distance himself from some business dealings at Bain Capital by asserting that he left the firm in February 1999, but a review of public records shows that his authority lingered for three more years as Bain repeatedly listed him on government filings as the man in charge,” the Boston Globe reports.

“Until 2002, when Romney and Bain Capital finalized a severance agreement, he remained the firm’s ‘sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer and president,’ according to SEC documents. The description was applied even to the creation of five new Bain partnerships a full three years after Romney has said he relinquished all control.”

“A new urgency has swept into President Obama’s campaign as disappointing fundraising numbers have emerged alongside the shaky economy as a major threat to his prospects for reelection,” The Hill reports.

“While the president’s aides originally maintained they wouldn’t be moving from ‘zero to 60’ when they launched their campaign in May, now, with less than four months until Election Day, it appears they’re pushing down harder on the pedal.”

“If they want more stuff from government, tell them to go vote for the other guy — more free stuff. But don’t forget, nothing is really free.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by MSNBC.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds voters agree by a 48% to 45% margin with with the U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding President Obama’s health care law, while they say 49% to 43% that the Congress should repeal it.

Meanwhile, 59% say the Supreme Court decision will not affect their vote for president, 27% say it will make them less likely to vote for President Obama, while 12% say more likely.

A new Gallup poll finds 75% of registered voters say the fact that Mitt Romney is worth more than $200 million makes no difference to their likelihood of voting for him. However, 20% of voters, mostly Democrats and independents, say Romney’s wealth makes them less likely to vote for him, while 4% say it makes them more likely.