Sean Trende: “The problem, however, is that elections are largely referenda on the incumbent. It takes something very powerful for the people to choose an unpopular incumbent over a challenger of any stripe… In a presidential campaign, both candidates are incredibly well-funded, to the point where they can achieve saturation media coverage in most major markets and still have money left over. This is especially true for Obama, who is a known quantity. His spending just isn’t likely to do that much to change the race, unless he hits upon an argument that disqualifies his opponent.”
Likewise, “I wouldn’t expect Romney to achieve a major breakthrough anytime soon. The economy isn’t so bad that it would cause people to give up utterly on Obama. It is improving, albeit more slowly than he — or the country — would like. That could change, but if it doesn’t, Romney is not going to run away with this election.”
