John Sides: “First, it matters for the 2014 election. A simple model of House election outcomes constructed by political scientist Gary Jacobson shows that the share of seats controlled by the president’s party depends in part on presidential approval…. Obviously, other factors matter too. But a less popular president certainly provides headwinds for Democratic candidates.”

“Second, it matters for the 2016 election. Of course, that’s a long way away, and a lot can happen between now and then. But again, simple forecasting models show that, controlling for other factors, the incumbent party does better when the incumbent president is popular.”

“Third, it matters for whether the President gets what he wants from Congress–with some caveats.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut finds Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) beginning his reelection campaign as a slight underdog against Tom Foley (R), the man he beat three years ago.

Foley edges Malloy by three points, 43% to 40%.

A new Rasmussen survey in New Jersey finds Cory Booker (D) running way ahead of Steve Lonegan (R) in a potential special U.S. Senate election match up, 50% to 33%.

Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) formally announced that he will challenge Sen. Mark Begich (D) next year, Roll Call reports.

“His candidacy, which has been expected for some time, gives Republicans a top-tier opponent in one of the party’s best pickup opportunities in the country.”