Dan Pfieffer: “This is not a drill. Newsom could absolutely be recalled and California — one of the bluest states in the land — would be governed by a Republican. This is not fearmongering. All the polls show that the recall election is basically a coin flip.”

Politico: “Amid increasing scrutiny over his treatment of women and calls for his withdrawal from the race, California Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder is shaking up his campaign team and hired a new campaign manager.”

Politico: “Alexandra Datig, the former fiancee and longtime radio producer for California GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, says she broke off an 18-month engagement with the conservative talk show host in 2015 after he waved a gun at her while high on marijuana.”

John Cox (R), who is challenging California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in the upcoming state recall election, was served with a subpoena while onstage during a debate Tuesday, CNN reports.

A new Core Decision Analytics poll in California finds Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) leading in the recall race 49% to 42% among likely voters.

Among “definite” voters, Newsom leads 50% to 43%.

First Read: “Newsom & Co. have spent $5.9 million in advertising from July 1 to Aug. 2, while Republicans and recall backers have spent just $27,500 during that same time period.”

“And when you look at future ad buys (from Aug. 3 to Sept. 14), Democrats hold a 150-to-1 advantage, $13.3 million to $86,000.”

“Now we expect those GOP ad numbers to increase over the next six weeks. Still, that’s quite a financial disadvantage in this very expensive state.”

If California Gov. Gavin Newsom is recalled, he predicts the effects would be felt “all across the country” for “many, many years,” arguing that it could boost Republican chances in the 2022 midterms, the Sacramento Bee reports.

Said Newsom: “If this was a successful recall, I think it would have profound consequences nationwide, and go to not just politics, but to policy and policymaking.”

“Caitlyn Jenner burst into the California gubernatorial race last month to national fanfare, but the early voter reaction in the state suggests she’s struggling to compete with experienced Republican rivals vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in a fall recall vote,” Politico reports.

Is she really running? Jenner has done just two interviews and held no public events in the last month.

A new UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll finds just 36% of registered voters in the state said they would vote to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), the same percentage of support found in a survey in late January.

In comparison, 49% of voters oppose removing the governor from office.

However, Democratic voters polled “also overwhelmingly favored having a prominent Democratic replacement candidate on the recall ballot in case Newsom was ousted from office, putting them at odds with efforts by their state party and Newsom’s campaign to prevent that from happening.”

“Recall candidate Caitlyn Jenner (R) may have played right into Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) hands when she lamented on Fox News that a neighboring private plane owner at her airport hangar is abandoning California because he ‘can’t take’ seeing homeless people anymore,” Politico reports.

“In less than 24 hours, that comment has drawn more than 5 million views on Twitter and prompted a caustic string of rebukes, potshots and one-liners mocking the TV reality show star as out of touch. It raised the more serious question of whether — in one brief moment — the candidate disarmed one of the Republicans’ most effective caricatures of the wealthy Democratic governor as a tone-deaf leader who dined at the French Laundry during the pandemic.”

A new SurveyUSA poll in California finds that 47% of voters say Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) should remain in office, while 36% say he should be recalled.

Caitlyn Jenner (R), the former Olympic decathlete and reality TV personality now running for California governor, has branded herself as a “compassionate disrupter” fighting against “elitist” career politicians in a new campaign launch video released Tuesday, ABC News reports.

Mark Barabak: “By the time he left office, Schwarzenegger’s disapproval level reached 70%, which is where it stood for Democrat Gray Davis just before he was kicked out of office.”

“Given that, it’s questionable whether Californians will go the celebrity-governor route again.”

“Perhaps most important, Newsom is no Gray Davis, who scratched out reelection with just 47%. Newsom, by contrast, was elected with 62% of the vote.”

First Read: “You might think it’s in part because of his hypocritical night out at the swanky French Laundry restaurant while he was telling Californians to stay inside. You might also think it’s in part because of frustration over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the related public-health restrictions and the vaccination rollout.”

“And you’d be right.”

“But if you look at the actual recall petition that appears poised to have secured enough signatures, there’s no mention of the virus at all. Instead, that petition — dated on Feb. 20, 2020 — criticizes Newsom with a laundry list of grievances, none having anything to do with the pandemic.”

Caitlyn Jenner (R) has filed her initial paperwork to run for governor of California and will officially announce her bid later today, Axios reports.

“Jenner, a longtime Republican, is seeking to replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in a recall election, hoping her celebrity status and name recognition can yield an upset in the nation’s most populous state.”

Los Angeles Times: “Three years after his underwhelming performance in the California governor’s race, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is being talked about as a possible Democratic candidate in the likely recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom.”

“Some political analysts argue that a well-known Democrat should appear on the ballot to blunt the chances of a Republican or fringe candidate winning. Others, including state Democratic leaders, urge a united front and are discouraging Democrats from running. Villaraigosa has criticized the recall. But he’s not publicly ruled out a run, prompting speculation about his plans.”

“Caitlyn Jenner and her political advisers are gathering at her Malibu home next week to discuss her potential candidacy in the upcoming California gubernatorial recall election,” Politico reports.

“Word of Jenner’s potential candidacy has divided top California Republicans — with some dismissing it as a celebrity-driven stunt and others arguing that she would be a strong candidate who could appeal to voters of both parties.”