Polls close in California’s recall election at 11 p.m. ET.

New York Times: “Depending on the number of early ballots and the amount of in-person voting on Tuesday, the math could be clear within a few hours of when the polls close, election experts say. But if the race is tighter than expected, weeks could pass while the counting drags on.”

As the votes come in, leave your reaction in the comments.

Former President Donald Trump explicitly and falsely claimed in a statement that the California recall election is rigged.

After California’s recall race was a dead-heat just a month ago, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) opening up a double-digit lead against the effort, 53% to 42.6%.

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds just 39% of Californians want to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), while 58% are opposed.

The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows 51.3% of Californians are now opposed to recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom, while 44.9% support a recall.

“I hope to live to see the day when you become president.”

— California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder (R), quoted by the Los Angeles Times in an email to Trump aide Stephen Miller in 2016.

“Republican Larry Elder picked up an endorsement from Democrat Gloria Romero, former majority leader of the California State Senate from 2001 to 2008,” Politico reports.

Said Romero: “Our public schools need big change…I believe in charter schools and school choice; so does Larry Elder, but not Gavin Newsom.”

Dan Pfieffer: “This is not a drill. Newsom could absolutely be recalled and California — one of the bluest states in the land — would be governed by a Republican. This is not fearmongering. All the polls show that the recall election is basically a coin flip.”

Politico: “Amid increasing scrutiny over his treatment of women and calls for his withdrawal from the race, California Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder is shaking up his campaign team and hired a new campaign manager.”

Politico: “Alexandra Datig, the former fiancee and longtime radio producer for California GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, says she broke off an 18-month engagement with the conservative talk show host in 2015 after he waved a gun at her while high on marijuana.”

John Cox (R), who is challenging California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in the upcoming state recall election, was served with a subpoena while onstage during a debate Tuesday, CNN reports.

A new Core Decision Analytics poll in California finds Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) leading in the recall race 49% to 42% among likely voters.

Among “definite” voters, Newsom leads 50% to 43%.

First Read: “Newsom & Co. have spent $5.9 million in advertising from July 1 to Aug. 2, while Republicans and recall backers have spent just $27,500 during that same time period.”

“And when you look at future ad buys (from Aug. 3 to Sept. 14), Democrats hold a 150-to-1 advantage, $13.3 million to $86,000.”

“Now we expect those GOP ad numbers to increase over the next six weeks. Still, that’s quite a financial disadvantage in this very expensive state.”

If California Gov. Gavin Newsom is recalled, he predicts the effects would be felt “all across the country” for “many, many years,” arguing that it could boost Republican chances in the 2022 midterms, the Sacramento Bee reports.

Said Newsom: “If this was a successful recall, I think it would have profound consequences nationwide, and go to not just politics, but to policy and policymaking.”

“Caitlyn Jenner burst into the California gubernatorial race last month to national fanfare, but the early voter reaction in the state suggests she’s struggling to compete with experienced Republican rivals vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in a fall recall vote,” Politico reports.

Is she really running? Jenner has done just two interviews and held no public events in the last month.

A new UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll finds just 36% of registered voters in the state said they would vote to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), the same percentage of support found in a survey in late January.

In comparison, 49% of voters oppose removing the governor from office.

However, Democratic voters polled “also overwhelmingly favored having a prominent Democratic replacement candidate on the recall ballot in case Newsom was ousted from office, putting them at odds with efforts by their state party and Newsom’s campaign to prevent that from happening.”

“Recall candidate Caitlyn Jenner (R) may have played right into Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) hands when she lamented on Fox News that a neighboring private plane owner at her airport hangar is abandoning California because he ‘can’t take’ seeing homeless people anymore,” Politico reports.

“In less than 24 hours, that comment has drawn more than 5 million views on Twitter and prompted a caustic string of rebukes, potshots and one-liners mocking the TV reality show star as out of touch. It raised the more serious question of whether — in one brief moment — the candidate disarmed one of the Republicans’ most effective caricatures of the wealthy Democratic governor as a tone-deaf leader who dined at the French Laundry during the pandemic.”

A new SurveyUSA poll in California finds that 47% of voters say Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) should remain in office, while 36% say he should be recalled.