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No Clinton or Bush in 2016?

November 29, 2014 · 9:53 pm ET · 63 Comments

Steve Rose: “Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of running for president, and in any case he thinks she is either ‘rusty’ or ‘she has lost her fastball.’ He bases that on her disastrous book tour, in which she said some very inappropriate things and also did not sell many books.”

“The author of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter for almost 30 years also disappointed a local audience when he did not give Jeb Bush much of a chance of gaining the Republican nomination… He expects the next Republican nominee to be either a tea party Senator or a governor from the Midwest. He wouldn’t predict beyond that.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]If you look at Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings, it’s not unreasonable to think she might be hesitant. [/speech_bubble]

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush

Getting Ready for the Real Thing

November 25, 2014 · 11:42 am ET · 8 Comments

Ruby Cramer has a great look at the “shadow campaign” or “pre-campaign” coming put together to elect Hillary Clinton as president.

“Political operatives wandered the halls of the hotel between meetings, while two or three reporters hung around near the elevators, aimless. What they were covering, how it would all work, and exactly to what end wasn’t clear at the time. But that small, scattered scene at the conference — a daylong series of panel discussions billed as a 2016 “strategy session” — marked the loose beginnings of a coordinated, unprecedented early effort to elect a U.S. president.”

“Three organizations make up what, together, is considered a formidable triad: Ready for Hillary, Correct the Record, Priorities USA. Respectively, the groups have amassed Clinton supporters, defended her in the press, and made preparations to raise millions to augment her possible campaign.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]Many believe the four-year head start President Obama had over Mitt Romney in planning a campaign made all the difference in 2012. That’s what Democrats are trying to do for Clinton. [/speech_bubble]

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Quote of the Day

November 24, 2014 · 1:54 pm ET · 19 Comments

“Sometimes she’d be in those meetings and I’d think, ‘Please don’t let her yell at me.'”

— Clinton White House aide Joan Baggett, quoted in a newly-released Miller Center oral history, about Hillary Clinton.

Clinton Legacy Hillary Clinton, Joan Baggett

Ready for Hillary, But Why?

November 24, 2014 · 11:55 am ET · 15 Comments

Ryan Lizza: “It was an odd event: reporters asked questions about Hillary Clinton’s plans and policy agenda to a group of people who knew as little as anyone about her presumptive campaign and its messaging. In that sense, the Ready for Hillary meeting was the perfect embodiment of the Democrats’ current Hillary problem: everyone in the party seems to be supporting her, and yet nobody can articulate exactly why.”

“The meeting came at the end of an eventful week—one that only underscored Clinton’s continued reluctance to explain what she might want to do as President. In Congress, the Senate debated two major issues: the Keystone XL pipeline and reform of the National Security Agency. Clinton remained silent about both.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Clinton Would Inherit 3 Million Person Mailing List

November 22, 2014 · 4:25 pm ET · 8 Comments

Ready for Hillary has amassed contact information from approximately 3 million people for a potential presidential campaign by Hillary Clinton, USA Today reports.

“Ready for Hillary’s list of supporters will be rented or sold to the Clinton campaign… Alternatively, Ready for Hillary will send e-mails asking for donations to go directly to the Clinton campaign, which essentially provides the campaign with donor information for free…. The list alone would be a big advantage for a presidential campaign to have on Day One, but the infrastructure assembling to support Clinton goes beyond Ready for Hillary.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Clinton Still Giving Paid Speeches

November 21, 2014 · 4:43 pm ET · 14 Comments

“Hillary Clinton is set to give a paid speech at a women’s conference in Silicon Valley in February, an appearance that indicates her time on the speaking circuit is not yet coming to an end with a likely presidential campaign looming,” Politico reports.

“The Feb. 24 appearance seems at odds with suggestions in the media that she is about to wind down her speaking schedule in the coming weeks… Clinton could, of course, cancel the appearance or decline a speaking fee if she announces a campaign before the speech. It’s highly unlikely she would continue to give paid speeches once she’s a candidate, something Republican Rudy Giuliani did in 2007 and took heat for.”

“But the fact that Clinton is still signing up for speeches also gives weight to what a number of people close to her say: that she hasn’t completely made up her mind about running.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Clinton Ratings Very Similar to Obama

November 21, 2014 · 12:52 pm ET · 35 Comments

First Read: “One of the emerging pieces of conventional wisdom is how Hillary Clinton — because she’s white, because she’s a woman — could outperform Obama among some key demographic groups. But what’s striking in our NBC/WSJ poll is how SIMILAR the two are; perhaps she will over perform with some older white voters but right now, there isn’t a lot of evidence of that.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Clinton Campaign-in-Waiting Gets Ready

November 21, 2014 · 7:05 am ET · 2 Comments

Bloomberg: “The complicated political machine known as Clintonland is revving its engine, as outside groups, top donors, and prospective aides begin preparing for an anticipated formal announcement of her presidential candidacy early next year. In the coming week alone there will be a half-dozen fundraisers aimed at greasing the path toward her 2016 debut. Some events are aimed at scooping up checks for existing pro-Clinton groups, while others will pocket financial “commitments” for a future campaign account.”

“While people close to Clinton caution that no final decisions have been made, they say the former secretary of state has shifted her focus from public events and paid speeches to private conversations about the guts of a campaign–messaging, staff, money. Her goal, they say, is to launch with a fully formed political operation.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton Expected to Announce Bid in January

November 19, 2014 · 11:34 am ET · 72 Comments

“Hillary Clinton is expected to announce in January that she will run for president… and the shape of that effort is becoming clear — with a campaign operation headquartered in the New York City suburbs and a campaign message that plays up the possibility of electing the first female president much more so than in 2008,” NBC News reports.

“Party sources emphasize there is still a small chance the former first lady will opt not to run, and some Democrats say there is no reason for her to begin a campaign so soon. But she is expected to begin preparation for a campaign over the next two months, while also giving speeches on some of her favorite causes, such as appearances at the Massachusetts Conference for Women and the League of Conservation Voters in December.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Clinton Shadow Campaign Begins to Wind Down

November 19, 2014 · 7:46 am ET · 1 Comment

“When staffers and supporters of Ready for Hillary gather Friday at a conference in Manhattan, the all-day event will mark the beginning of the end for the grass-roots super PAC that was an impressive branding exercise that, for better or worse, helped freeze the field of competition against Hillary Clinton for 2016,” Politico reports.

“The lower-dollar super PAC is set to begin its wind-down once Hillary Clinton declares her candidacy for president — something her allies insist she still may not do but that most expect her to.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Walker Raises Clinton’s Age

November 18, 2014 · 7:16 am ET · 20 Comments

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) raised the subject of Hillary Clinton’s age when discussing when he might run for president in an interview with a Wisconsin Fox affiliate.

Said Walker: “Whether it’s two years, six years, 20 years from now, because at 47, I mean I think about Hillary Clinton, I could run 20 years from now for president and still be about the same age as the former secretary of State is right now.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton, Scott Walker

Can Hillary Clinton Expand the Map?

November 17, 2014 · 9:43 pm ET · 120 Comments

“The top minds in the proto-Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign infrastructure are already gaming out Electoral College scenarios. What they think they have is a candidate who could compete in a handful of traditionally red states, putting Republicans on the defensive and increasing her chances of winning the White House,” TPM reports.

“There are two buckets of states potentially in play. Arkansas, Indiana and Missouri comprise one bucket. The first is a somewhat unique case, given Clinton’s history there, while the other two were razor-thin in 2008, but the principle is the same: Clinton has a record of appealing to white working-class voters — especially women — and they could be enough when paired with the Obama coalition to pull out a win.”

“The second bucket consists of Arizona and Georgia, two states that Democrats believe are demographically trending toward them, a process that could accelerate with the voter turnout that usually occurs in presidential elections.”

The Fix: “The first bucket of states is ridiculous. The second is plausible — but almost certainly not in 2016.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Podesta Seen as Likely Chair of Clinton Campaign

November 15, 2014 · 7:47 am ET · 11 Comments

Sources tell Al Hunt that Hillary Clinton has discussed bringing John Podesta to served as chairman of her possible presidential campaign.

“There may be no one in Democratic circles who commands more respect than Podesta. His standing is similar that of James Baker, the former secretary of state, in Republican circles three decades ago. Podesta was chief of staff to President Bill Clinton and then started the most successful Democratic think tank, the Center for American Progress. He was the major player in the negotiations with China, which culminated in this week’s joint agreement to cut greenhouse emissions.”

“The unsuccessful Hillary Clinton 2008 campaign was marked by chaotic infighting and, at least initially, a lack of direction. Prominent Democrats believe it’ll take someone of Podesta’s stature to bring order to her expected 2016 quest.”

Earlier on Political Wire: Jockeying begins for Clinton campaign jobs

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton, John Podesta

Jockeying Begins for Clinton Campaign Jobs

November 14, 2014 · 11:48 am ET · 15 Comments

National Journal: “If Clinton hopes to return to the White House after the 2016 election, she’d better hope the people around her follow that advice better than they did last time. The positioning for jobs on a campaign that doesn’t even exist has already quietly begun. And it has the potential to get ugly.”

“Every presidential campaign faces difficult and potentially messy staffing choices, as it balances the competing desires to reward loyalty, make room for new ideas, and impose command and control. Simple math dictates that there will be bruised egos: There are too many people who want good jobs, and not nearly enough to go around.”

“But no presidential candidate in recent memory has accumulated as many potential bruised egos as Hillary Clinton. The Clintons are famous for cultivating friends and staff, and after 30-plus years in politics, traveling from the Arkansas governor’s mansion to the White House to the Senate to a presidential campaign to the State Department, there are lots and lots of people who would like—and believe they deserve—a piece of the action. And that doesn’t even include people who worked for Obama or other Democratic campaigns who want in.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton

Secret Emails from Possible Clinton Managers Leaked

November 14, 2014 · 7:20 am ET · 5 Comments

“For the past five years, a prominent Democratic operative who is a leading contender to manage a Hillary Clinton presidential campaign has maintained a private email listserv for friends and associates that carries a provocative name: the ‘Mook Mafia,'” ABC News reports.

“The listserv, which one member said reaches more than 150 fellow campaign veterans, has been a means for Robby Mook and a close friend Marlon Marshall to stay connected with many of the operatives who would likely populate a Democratic presidential campaign in 2016. Mook and Marshall have both been mentioned as possible Hillary Clinton campaign managers.”

2016 Campaign Hillary Clinton, Robby Mook

Axelrod Says Inevitability is a Problem for Clinton

November 13, 2014 · 11:12 am ET · 21 Comments

David Axelrod, the chief strategist who guided President Obama into the White House, offered a blunt assessment of Hillary Clinton’s likely 2016 presidential campaign, saying she needs to “get out of the cocoon of inevitability,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Axelrod: “Tactics have to follow strategy. I think the danger for Secretary Clinton is that, as was the case in 2007, her candidacy is out in front of the rationale for it.”

2016 Campaign David Axelrord, Hillary Clinton

Obama Readies Immigration Action

November 13, 2014 · 10:13 am ET · 39 Comments

President Obama “is planning to unveil a 10-part plan for overhauling U.S. immigration policy via executive action — including suspending deportations for millions — as early as next Friday,” Fox News reports.

First Read: “Politically, the question is whether such action would be a smart move — or a dumb one… The pros: It’s the best chance for Obama to reform the system in the short term (especially since House Republicans are unwilling to pass their own legislation), and it will fire up Latino voters, who will be a critical bloc to Democrats’ success in 2016. The cons: It would spark a policy fight with Republicans (the outcome of which is impossible to predict), and it could alienate the white voters Democrats lost in 2014.”

“But maybe the biggest political reason to undertake executive action is that it would ensure the action becomes a key part of the 2016 race. Every Republican running for president would have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest then would turn into who’s tougher against the action: Do they promise to deport the undocumented immigrants (if Obama’s ultimate executive action entails allowing them to stay in the country)? Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go — and make it harder for the nominee to return to the middle in the general election. Politically speaking, Obama taking the action could be the biggest favor he does for Hillary Clinton (if she ends up running).”

Immigration Hillary Clinton

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 13, 2014 · 9:36 am ET · 10 Comments

“Bill and I are going to have to have some interesting things to talk about. Look, I’ll still like him when Jeb beats Hillary.”

— Former President George W. Bush, quoted by Business Insider, on his brother’s potential 2016 presidential campaign.

2016 Campaign Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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