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Clinton Crushes Sanders In South Carolina

February 27, 2016 at 6:45 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 442 Comments

“Drawing overwhelming support from the African-American voters who deserted her here eight years ago, Hillary Clinton won her first resounding victory of the 2016 campaign in South Carolina on Saturday, delivering a blow to Sen. Bernie Sanders as their fight turns to the 11 states where Democrats vote on Tuesday,” the New York Times reports.

“After supporting Barack Obama in 2008, African-American voters, who will be the dominant force in the coming Southern primaries, turned out in droves for Mrs. Clinton here. They supported her over Mr. Sanders by more than 6-to-1, and white voters narrowly favored her as well, according to exit polling.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Sanders Effectively Concedes South Carolina

February 27, 2016 at 2:18 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 62 Comments

“South Carolina is holding its Democratic primary today, but you wouldn’t know it just by listening to Bernie Sanders,” Politico reports.

“Jetting off to Austin from Columbia, S.C. this morning — before stops in Dallas and Rochester, Minnesota — Sanders made no reference to the state voting today during his early afternoon rally at a Formula One racetrack here.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Bernie Sanders, South Carolina

Democrats Vote In South Carolina

February 27, 2016 at 8:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard 69 Comments

“The Democratic presidential contest has moved to South Carolina, where voters began casting their ballots Saturday in a primary that serves as two starkly different milestones for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders,” the Washington Post reports.

“Clinton is looking to her expected victory here to prove her strong support among African American voters — and to cement her status as the presumptive front-runner heading toward Super Tuesday three days later, when six of 11 Democratic contests will take place in Southern states with large populations of black voters.”

Politico: Clinton flips the script in South Carolina

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina


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Trump Wins South Carolina

February 20, 2016 at 6:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 460 Comments

Donald Trump has won the Republican primary in South Carolina.

New York Times: “Mr. Trump has benefited so far from a fractious group of candidates running against him. But the results in South Carolina may narrow that field to a small and tenacious handful, possibly opening the way for a concerted challenge to Mr. Trump next month in delegate-rich states like Texas, Virginia and Florida. Yet by capturing the first Southern primary immediately after winning New Hampshire in a landslide, Mr. Trump made clear that he would not be easy to stop.”

Politico: “Trump crushed the rest of the GOP field in South Carolina’s primary Saturday night, giving the real estate mogul major momentum and wounding the more experienced governors and senators who are struggling to keep pace.”

Decision Desk has a good vote tally.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Uncertainty at the End in South Carolina

February 20, 2016 at 10:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

For months, the South Carolina polls have show Donald Trump the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary, with Ted Cruz in second and Marco Rubio in a less-certain third place. But two late-breaking polls released yesterday showed a much closer race.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: South Carolina

One Last Look at the South Carolina Polls

February 20, 2016 at 8:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

Sam Wang: “It seems likely that Donald Trump is headed for another win today – but a closer one than I would have expected even a few days ago. In 4 polls taken February 16-19, the medians are Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Rubio may do even better than these numbers would indicate, since his surge is quite recent.”

Nate Silver: “But unlike in the general election, where the polling average usually gives you a fairly precise estimate of where the race will end up, the South Carolina polls could still wind up being way off. We warned you about this before Iowa, where the polls mispredicted the order of finish, and likewise before New Hampshire, where they were closer to the mark (although hardly perfect). We’re probably going to have to keep warning you until the Republican race settles down to only two or three major candidates — multiway races are historically associated with much larger polling errors.”

South-Carolina-poll-odds

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Rubio Surges In New South Carolina Poll

February 19, 2016 at 3:27 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 118 Comments

A new Opinion Saavy poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading with 27%, followed by Marco Rubio at 24%, Ted Cruz at 19%, Jeb Bush at 11%, Ben Carson at 8% and John Kasich at 7%.

For members: South Carolina primary cheat sheet

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Your South Carolina Primary Cheat Sheet

February 19, 2016 at 8:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The HuffPost Pollster polling averages in South Carolina show Donald Trump way ahead of his rivals with a close battle for second place between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: South Carolina

Trump’s Lead Narrows in South Carolina

February 19, 2016 at 6:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 28%, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio at 15%, Jeb Bush at 13%, John Kasich at 9% and Ben Carson at 9%.

Last month, Trump held a 16-point lead over Cruz.

A new tracking poll from South Carolina House Republicans finds Trump ahead at 34%, followed by Cruz at 18%, Rubio at 16%, Bush at 15%, Kasich at 9% and Carson at 5%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Clinton Maintains Wide Lead in South Carolina

February 18, 2016 at 4:22 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 59 Comments

A new Bloomberg poll in South Carolina finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders, 53% to 31%.

“But the survey also carries warning signs for Clinton about where the loyalties of white Southern Democrats lie as the campaigns prepare for the crush of Super Tuesday contests just three days after South Carolina’s Feb. 27 primary. And it underscores how crucial it will be for Clinton to sustain her lead with black and Hispanic voters, and turn them out, in those contests and beyond.”A new Monmouth poll finds Clinton leading Sanders, 59% to 30%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Trump Still Leads in South Carolina

February 18, 2016 at 10:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

A new Fox News poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP primary race with 32%, followed by Ted Cruz at 19%, Marco Rubio at 15%, Jeb Bush at 9%, Ben Carson at 9% and John Kasich at 6%.

A new Harper Polling survey finds Trump leading with 29%, followed by Cruz at 17%, Rubio at 15%, Bush at 14% and Kasich at 13%.

A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina finds Trump leading with 33%, followed by Rubio at 20%, Kasich at 15%, Cruz at 13%, Bush at 8% and Carson at 3%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Trump Way Ahead in South Carolina

February 17, 2016 at 5:09 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

A new Bloomberg poll in South Carolina shows Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 17%, Marco Rubio at 15%, Jeb Bush at 13%, Ben Carson at 9% and John Kasich at 7%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Trump Far Ahead in South Carolina

February 17, 2016 at 12:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 62 Comments

A new Monmouth poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 35%, followed by Ted Cruz at 19%, Marco Rubio at 17%, John Kasich at 9%, Jeb Bush at 8% and Ben Carson at 7%.

Key finding: “Driving Trump’s broad-based support is the sense that the next president needs to be someone from outside government (54%) rather than someone with government experience (33%). This sentiment has not changed much since last summer.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Two Signs of a Possible Bush Resurgence?

February 17, 2016 at 11:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The Conservative Solutions PAC, which is backing Sen. Marco Rubio in the presidential race, reports a $1.6 million ad buy, according to ProPublica. Much of the money is underwriting a new attack ad against Jeb Bush in South Carolina.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: South Carolina

Trump Splits the Evangelicals

February 17, 2016 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

A fissure has opened wide among South Carolina evangelicals, the Greenville News reports.

“The cracks began to open in 2012 when a twice-divorced Newt Gingrich won South Carolina, but it’s been ripped wide open by a twice-divorced Trump. As candidates court the roughly 65 percent of GOP voters in the state who count themselves as evangelicals, many of those voters are looking beyond faith to choose their candidate.”

Evangelicals “are split into two camps and the divide has grown… Trump, and to a lesser extent Cruz, have tapped into the ‘populist evangelicals,’ those working-class folks who listen to conservative talk radio, are drawn to mass rallies and hold the idea that motivating great masses of people is the way to achieve political influence… Rubio has garnered the support of the bulk of the GOP evangelical power brokers… ‘cosmopolitan evangelicals,’ the strategy-minded, highly educated evangelicals who are reliant on their connections.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Religion Tagged With: Donald Trump, South Carolina

Trump Maintains Lead in Post-Debate Polls

February 16, 2016 at 9:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 33%, followed by Marco Rubio at 16%, Ted Cruz at 14%, John Kasich at 14%, Jeb Bush at 9% and Ben Carson at 3%.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 61% to 31%.

A tracking poll from South Carolina House Republicans finds Trump leading with 34%, followed by Cruz at 16%, Rubio at 15%, Bush at 15%, Kasich at 8% and Carson at 7%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Trump and Clinton Way Ahead in South Carolina

February 16, 2016 at 4:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 61 Comments

A new CNN/ORC poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 38%, followed by Ted Cruz at 22%, Marco Rubio at 14% support, Jeb Bush at 10%, Ben Carson at 6% and John Kasich at 4%.

Key takeaway: “The poll suggests Trump’s support may have softened after Saturday’s debate among the GOP candidates. In interviews conducted before the debate, 40% backed Trump, compared with 31% who said they supported him after the raucous matchup between the remaining candidates in the field.”

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 56% to 38%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

Trump Still Leads Big in South Carolina

February 15, 2016 at 9:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 160 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina — conducted after last weekend’s GOP debate — finds Donald Trump leading the pack with 35%, followed by Ted Cruz at 18%, Marco Rubio at 18%, John Kasich at 10%, Ben Carson at 7% and Jeb Bush at 7%.

Key takeaway: “The GOP poll suggests Trump’s debate performance – in which he criticized former President George W. Bush for the 9/11 attacks – may not be hurting the frontrunner in a state that has deep ties to the Bush family.”

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 55% to 34%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: South Carolina

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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