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Why Are South Carolina Politics So Nasty?

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Washington Post: “And so, the media has flocked South, left taciturn New England behind in search of a quiet spot — the corner booth of a bar, perhaps, or a well-appointed office downtown — hoping to be blessed with those magic words, you didn’t hear this from me, but. South Carolina: home to whisper campaigns, dirty politics, back-alley knife fighters, and other cliches. A land where consultants share shibboleth with bank robbers: No fingerprints, please. It’s a week before the primary, and the Palmetto State is all anonymous fliers and unlisted numbers.”

“In fairness to the natives, South Carolina’s electoral nastiness may be a matter of timing more than geography. The window to win the nomination is rapidly closing, and there’s little advantage in holding back.”

Trump Leads in South Carolina

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William Kristol reports on a private poll from a “very reputable pollster” in South Carolina that finds Donald Trump leading the GOP race with 32%, followed by Ted Cruz at 26%, Marco Rubio at 20%, Jeb Bush at 10%, Ben Carson at 7% and John Kasich at 2%.

“Take it with the usual grains of salt, but I do trust these were the actual results of an honest and competent pollster doing his best to get an accurate read on the situation.”

Tracking Dirty Tricks in South Carolina

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The Charleston Post and Courier introduced a digital tool that asks readers to help keep tabs on the coming wave of dirty tricks.

Politico: “This is a state famous for telephone pollsters implying John McCain had an illegitimate child, and the bogus Mitt Romney Christmas card with controversial quotes from the Book of Mormon. Fliers dropped on South Carolina doorsteps have told people the wrong date to vote; this is where political rivals have bantered openly with racial slurs and innuendo about sexual trysts.”

South Carolina GOP Primary Remains Wide Open

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National Review: “Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, where a consensus among insiders has started to cement projecting Cruz and Trump victories, South Carolina remains an electoral enigma. The Palmetto State is more unpredictable than in past cycles due to a host of factors, including a larger and more ideologically fragmented field.”

“But Republicans say four candidates have both the money and organization to survive until the February 20 primary, and all four have competitive claims in the state: Trump sits atop the polls; Cruz has the most enthusiastic followers; Rubio boasts the most experienced organization; and Bush enjoys the deepest reservoir of donor loyalty. Yet none possess traditional x-factors, such as deep southern roots or military experience, that would make them a natural favorite.”

Why the Early States Matter

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Huffington Post: “Early primaries matter because they establish campaign momentum. The media speaks of Iowa and New Hampshire in hushed tones, and the voters themselves take their first in the nation status most seriously. But, as any South Carolinian will tell you, they are the most consistent bellwether of the Reagan Era. Of the last six open GOP nominations, Iowa correctly picked three winners, New Hampshire four and South Carolina five. The one time all three early states agreed on a nominee was 1980, with Ronald Reagan.”

Trump Widens Lead in South Carolina After Remarks

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A new Fox News poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential primary field with 35%, followed by Ben Carson at 15%, Ted Cruz at 14%, Marco Rubio at 14% and Jeb Bush at 5%.

Trump’s remarks about barring Muslims from entering the country may have helped him. Support for Trump increased eight points after his statement — from 30% the first two nights of the survey vs. 38% the last two nights.

Cruz Starting to Lock Down South Carolina

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Sen. Ted Cruz “has taken his evangelicals-focused Iowa playbook to South Carolina — and conservative leaders in the state say that it’s starting to work,” Politico reports.

“Now, there are signs that the same Christian conservatives-focused approach Cruz used to surge in Iowa, largely at Carson’s expense, is making him a formidable candidate in South Carolina as well, a state in which 65 percent of Republican primary voters in 2012 identified themselves in exit polls as “born-again or evangelical Christians.” Evangelicals are particularly concentrated here in the deeply religious Upstate region.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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