A new University of Massachusetts Amherst poll in New Hampshire finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 28%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 20%, Kamala Harris at 14% and Elizabeth Warren at 9%.
Another 14% said they were “undecided” about what Democrat they would support in the hypothetical 2020 primary matchup.
“Bill Gardner, the New Hampshire official who has zealously guarded his state’s position kicking off U.S. presidential races for four decades, could end his long run in office on Wednesday if lawmakers pick a new secretary of state,” Reuters reports.
“Gardner, 70, has held that role since 1976… Now he faces his first challenger in decades in Colin Van Ostern, a failed gubernatorial candidate.”
“Both candidates are Democrats, but Van Ostern is looking to capitalize on anger among Democrats in the state over Gardner’s role in a now-defunct commission Republican President Trump named to investigate allegations of voter fraud in the 2016 elections.”
Concord Monitor: “It may not be outwardly visible, but behind the scenes, the 2020 race for the White House is definitely underway in New Hampshire, the state that for a century has held the first presidential primary.”
“Potential Democratic presidential contenders are busy putting plans in place to launch likely White House campaigns. They’re also quietly courting Granite State Democratic lawmakers and rainmakers.”
New Hampshire state Rep. Frank Sapareto (R), who was producing and starring in a porn film, “assaulted his business partner in California after he felt his scenes didn’t go well, according to a civil lawsuit filed by the partner,” the AP reports.
“Sapareto, who is in his seventh term in the House and is vice chair of the criminal justice and public safety committee… He is running for re-election next month and said if he wins, he plans to run for House speaker.”
Cook Political Report: “In the wake of the New Hampshire primary, Republicans will be hard-pressed to pry either of the state’s House seats out of the Democratic column. The state’s notoriously independent electorate tends to swing hard towards parties riding a wave, and we’re moving both of the state’s House seats in Democrats’ direction.”
“An exhaustive review by state election officials, including a first-time comparison of voter information shared with 27 other states, has turned up virtually no evidence of possible voter fraud in New Hampshire,” WMUR reports.
A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds President Trump leads Gov. John Kasich (R) in a possible presidential primary by 6 points, 48% to 42%.
Trump leads Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) by a wider margin, 49% to 33%, with 18% of voters undecided.
A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Gov. John Kasich would top President Trump in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary, 52% to 40%.
“We have a massive drug problem where kids are becoming addicted to drugs because the drugs are being sold for less money than candy. I won New Hampshire because New Hampshire is a drug-infested den.”
— President Trump, in a transcript of his first call with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.
Donald Trump’s first campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, conceded to David Axelrod that there was no evidence for the president’s claim that Massachusetts Democrats were brought into New Hampshire by bus on Election Day to steal the state for Hillary Clinton.
A new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll in New Hampshire shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied at 44% each.
The U.S. Senate race is also dead even, with Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) facing a tough challenge from Gov. Maggie Hassan (D).
A new WBUR poll in New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton barely leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 44% to 42%.
Key finding: Just 35% of New Hampshire voters have a positive view of Clinton; only 33% feel that way about Trump.
Early exit polls in New Hampshire find that nearly half of Republican primary voters say they finally picked their candidate only within the last few days, or after Saturday’s Republican presidential debate, according to ABC News.
Also interesting: Nearly half of Republicans say they’re looking for a candidate from “outside the political establishment.”
Boston Globe: “Since 2000, Laconia, located in the Lakes Region, has proven to be a near-perfect reflection of the statewide vote in the presidential primaries for both parties. Not only did Laconia pick the winners in recent New Hampshire primaries, but its results mimic the second and third place finishers for both parties statewide, according to an analysis from pollster David Paleologos. Even more telling: Laconia’s results came within five percentage points of the statewide results in every competitive primary since 2000.”
“Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary Tuesday — according to a premature Fox News report,” Politico reports.
“Citing every precinct reporting, Fox News’ website accidentally published election results declaring Trump the winner with 28 percent support and 14 delegates.”
“As voters in New Hampshire headed to the polls Tuesday, Republican campaigns were bracing for a roller-coaster night and preparing for the possibility of a long primary campaign,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“New Hampshire has always been an uncertain contest for pollsters and pundits, and an overnight snowstorm added to the uncertainty about turnout. Democrats and undeclared voters are allowed by law to vote in the state’s primary, the nation’s second presidential nominating contest, making the outcome notoriously difficult to predict.”
First Read: “For a moment, forget the race for second (or third or fourth) place in the Republican primary. And stop speculating about whether Hillary Clinton can bring the Democratic contest to single digits. Instead, devote your attention, at least for the time being, to the two men who have consistently led the New Hampshire primary amid all of the other uncertainty — Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Think about it: Trump’s been ahead in 75-straight New Hampshire polls going back to June… while Sanders has led 40-straight Granite State surveys going back to early January. Anything — and we mean ANYTHING — can happen tonight. But Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are likely headed to victory tonight, and that would be no small feat.”
“Six months ago, this dual outcome would have been dismissed as pure fantasy. Today, it may be the biggest signal yet that the country is so fed up with its political leadership that voters in New Hampshire will turn to a democratic socialist and a reality TV star to shake things up.”
Sam Wang: “I am not sure that any of the above-listed non-Trump candidates will exit the race after today. Cruz is in to stay. Kasich has risen slowly since the new year, and a strong finish today would keep him in the race. In fact, I give Kasich an even-odds chance of ending up in second place. Already that’s four candidates – a threshold I have identified as problematic for the Republican Party.”
“Alternatively, Jeb Bush could pick up a few points, and decide to stick around along with his super-PAC money. Christie’s support is pretty low, but he had a little too much fun in Saturday’s debate to get out now. All in all, it seems likely that after New Hampshire, the field will remain divided for a while longer.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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