A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Winsome Earle Sears (R) in the governor’s race by 12 points, 52% to 40% among likely voters.

Another 8% remain undecided or don’t know.

Cook Political Report: “Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has stabilized her once-chaotic campaign in recent weeks and found some momentum by seizing on social issues, but her early missteps and the national environment continue to work against her in the open Virginia gubernatorial race.”

“Accordingly, we are shifting our rating from Lean to Likely Democrat.”

“Virginia Lt. Gov Winsome Earle-Sears is continuing to ask President Donald Trump to back her bid in the high-stakes Virginia governor’s race — but the president, as of now, is refusing to endorse her,” Bloomberg reports.

A new Virginia Commonwealth University poll shows Abigail Spanberger (D) ahead of Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race for governor, 49% to 40%.

And don’t forget tonight: Another Test of the Special Election Surge

Abigail Spanberger (D) holds a 7-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race for Virginia governor, 46% to 39%, according to a new Roanoke College Poll that shows the contest tightening since the spring.

Jonathan Martin: “The convergence of paltry fundraising, weak polling and a candidate seen as incapable of fixing either has some in the RGA’s orbit unenthused, I’m told, about giving much more than the $500,000 the group has already contributed to Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears.”

“And while Sears and Trump met privately earlier this year in the White House, the president has yet to embrace her candidacy, a non-endorsement that stems from her criticism of him between his two terms.”

The Hill: Virginia Republicans sound alarm over governor’s race: “It’s a disaster.”

“Republicans are increasingly worried that budget cuts by Elon Musk’s DOGE could cost them dearly in November’s vote for Virginia governor — an early electoral test of President Trump’s policies,” Axios reports.

“Virginia has one of the highest percentages of federal employees in the country — more than 5% of the state’s workforce by some estimates — and Republicans’ internal polls are starting to show the damage from tens of thousands of federal layoffs.”

“Six months out from November, Virginia Democrats believe the governor’s race is Abigail Spanberger’s to lose,” Politico reports.

“There’s a risk the former member of Congress could get bogged down by national malaise toward the Democratic Party, and her margins could end up being tight because of the negative Democratic brand.”

“But Democrats are hopeful that Spanberger can overcome that national dynamic. She flipped a competitive district in 2018 that stretches into rural Southwest Virginia and she benefits from the unpopular actions of President Donald Trump. His stop-and-start trade war coupled with the elimination of thousands of federal jobs and looming Medicaid cuts are widely unwelcome in the Commonwealth. Spanberger enjoys strong name recognition and is far out-fundraising her opponent, a candidate who even some fellow Republicans are wincing about.”

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) “is launching her first TV ad of the 2025 Virginia governor’s race, detailing her background as she ramps up her campaign in one of the most closely watched elections of the year,” NBC News reports.

“Virginia Republicans are bracing for November with a growing sense of doom,” Politico reports.

“The GOP already faced a tough climate in this year’s elections thanks to tech billionaire Elon Musk’s war on the state’s robust federal workforce. Then came a bitter, intraparty feud over Republicans’ lieutenant governor candidate. Now, some Republicans are privately expressing concerns about the viability of their gubernatorial nominee, Winsome Earle-Sears.”

Cook Political Report: “The Virginia governor’s race is officially set, with both Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears avoiding a primary. This means that the commonwealth will elect its first female governor come November.”

“When we initially rated this contest in December, we put the race in Toss Up, given the absence of early polling and the uncertainty of the political climate before Donald Trump’s second term began. However, after talks with sources on both sides of the aisle — taking into consideration the political environment, Democratic enthusiasm and private polling — we are shifting the Virginia governor’s race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.”

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) asked John Reid, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, to step down over explicit photos that Reid denies he reposted on social media, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports.

Said Reid: “As long as I have been in the public space, I have been a target for malicious and salacious lies.”

A Roanoke College poll finds Virginia’s gubernatorial race has taken a dramatic twist as Abigail Spanberger (D) surged to a healthy lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), 39% to 24%.

The two were tied at 39% in the same survey in September. 

“Early surveys show former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race to replace Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), in what is likely to be the marquee gubernatorial matchup of this year’s off-year elections,” Pluribus News reports.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Virginia finds former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race for governor, 47% to 44%.

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) has filed paperwork to run for Virginia governor in 2025, WRIC reports.