Charlie Cook: “The prospects remain very tough for Democrats to hold onto their majority in the Senate, but there is a new scenario emerging–albeit still unlikely–that is turning the majority math a bit on its head.”

“As I have said previously, Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take the majority. The question has generally been whether Republicans just need to knock off six Democratic seats to get to 51, or if they will need to gross seven seats in order to net six. Now there appears to be a real question as to whether Republicans may need to gross eight seats in order to net six, covering for the potential loss of not just Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas but an open seat in Georgia as well.”

“A bruising primary challenge to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) left Matt Bevin (R) with two things: A loss at the ballot box and $5 million worth of name recognition. Now the Louisville businessman is hoping to cash in some of that political legwork in another high profile race: Kentucky governor,” the AP reports.

Said Bevin: “I have not ruled it out. If anything, it is more likely.”

Toni Preckwinkle (D) declared that she won’t run for Chicago mayor, “leaving union and community groups angry over Chicago’s violent crime, school closings and teetering finances searching for a credible candidate to take on Mayor Rahm Emanuel next year,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

“The decision is a boost to Emanuel’s bid for a second term and ensures he won’t have to square off against a popular, countywide elected official capable of uniting disparate voters from the South and West Sides with lakefront liberals.”

A new We Ask America poll in Chicago finds Mayor Rahm Emanuel trailing two rivals in his expected re-election race.

Karen Lewis leads Emanuel, 45% to 36%, while Toni Preckwinkle, “long considered his most formidable challenger,” crushes him 55% to 31%.

The Chicago Tribune says Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s staff is pushing negative stories about possible challenger Toni Preckwinkle.

“Campaigns scouting potential opponents and suggesting negative stories is a decades-old political practice. But what makes the move… somewhat unusual is that it came nine months before the mayoral election and centered on a person who has not declared she is running.”

Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) “will announce as early as Tuesday that he’s officially in the 2015 governor’s race and has selected state Rep. Sannie Overly (D) as his running mate,” CN2 reports.

“Conway has had mixed success running statewide, winning the attorney general’s race in 2007 but losing by 10 points to Rand Paul in the 2010 U.S. Senate race.”

A new Illinois Observer poll finds Toni Preckwinkle leading Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel in the 2015 race for mayor, 40% to 32%, with another 28% undecided.

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) announced he would run for governor of Louisiana in 2015.

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