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Trump Will Propose Second Round of Tax Cuts

June 29, 2018 at 6:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump “said he wanted to further lower the corporate tax rate, from 21% to 20%, as part of a second round of tax cuts later this year,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump, in an interview with Fox News to mark the six-month anniversary of the $1.5 trillion tax-cut law Republicans passed last year, said other parts of the new tax plan would be tailored to the middle class.”

Said Trump: “One of the things we’re thinking about is bringing the 21 percent down to 20 and for the most part, the rest of it will go right to the middle class. It’s a great stimulus.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Bonus Quote of the Day

June 29, 2018 at 8:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The deficit, it’s coming down and it’s coming down rapidly.”

— White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, on Fox News Business, claiming something that everyone knows is not true.

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Support for Tax Law Plunges

June 27, 2018 at 1:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds “public support for the recent tax overhaul plunged in the past two months, as more voters became ambivalent about it.”

“Just 37% of registered voters said they supported the tax-cut laden law, down from 44% in an April poll… Even among Republicans, support for the law dropped to 70%, from 80% in April.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Democrats Hold Lead In Key New Jersey District

June 27, 2018 at 12:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district finds Mikie Sherrill (D) with a slight lead over Jay Webber (R), 40% to 38% among likely voters.

“Neither candidate is particularly well-known at this point in the race, but Democratic enthusiasm is giving this traditionally red district a purplish hue. The poll also finds that the GOP tax reform plan does not play all that well in one of the richest congressional districts in the country.”

“The Democrat’s advantage widens when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Sherrill a 44% to 40% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Sherrill a 45% to 39% lead.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Budget & Taxes Tagged With: NJ-11

CBO Warns of Ballooning U.S. Debt

June 26, 2018 at 4:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CBO reports says the national debt “is on track to nearly double as a share of the economy over the next 30 years,” NBC News reports.

“Federal debt is currently equivalent to 78 percent of the country’s annual Gross Domestic Product, with the report estimating it will rise to 100 percent of GDP by 2030 and 152 percent by 2048. The share of debt would surpass records set in the World War II era.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

The Next Crisis May Be a Government Shutdown

June 26, 2018 at 6:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “The president is having lunch today with House and Senate appropriators — the people who write the spending bills — at the White House. Expect them to talk about the border wall. Anyone who tells you confidently that the government won’t shut down in September over an impasse about the border wall is, well, too confident.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Immigration

What Republicans Are Watching Ahead of the Midterms

June 24, 2018 at 4:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A source close to GOP leadership emails Jonathan Swan: “Only thing that matters now is a) how bad they get crushed on ACA premium increases; b) the final Mueller verdict; and c) how crazy Trump gets with the CR.”

“Republicans are worried about the potential for health insurance premiums to skyrocket in September, shortly before the midterms. Democrats are seizing on health care as their number one issue. Senior Democratic sources say their polling shows voters are now blaming their dissatisfaction with health care on the party that controls the House, Senate and White House rather than the party that implemented the Affordable Care Act.”

“The final Mueller verdict speaks for itself: it would take a new revelation of the most explosive kind to persuade any Republican senators to vote to impeach Trump.”

“And the CR — or continuing resolution — refers to the government spending bill that’s due to expire at the end of September. The unanswerable question is whether Trump decides to shut down the federal government if Congress doesn’t give him enough money to build his wall (spoiler: it won’t).”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Budget & Taxes

Tax Reform Becoming Less Popular

June 22, 2018 at 12:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It’s been six months since President Donald Trump signed into law the Republican tax cuts. During that time, the measure appears to have become less popular — not more. The GOP’s big 2018 midterms sales pitch isn’t working out exactly how party leaders thought it would,” Vox reports.

“According to a Monmouth University poll released this week, just 34 percent of Americans said they approve of the Republican tax reform package, compared to 41 percent who disapprove. That’s down from April, when 40 percent of Americans said they approved of the law and 44 percent did not. In January, respondents were evenly split, with 44 percent saying they approved and another 44 percent voicing disapproval of the plan.”

“Broadly, most polling shows the tax law is more disliked than liked by Americans. A recent Quinnipiac poll found 39 percent of respondents approve of the legislation and 46 percent disapprove of it. An Economist/YouGov poll found a smaller but still negative margin, with 38 percent approving and 40 percent not.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Budget & Taxes

New Tax Law Still Not Popular

June 13, 2018 at 4:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that six months after the passage of tax reform, it’s still not really catching on with voters. Just 31% support it to 38% who are opposed, with 30% not sure one way or the other.

“The core problem for Republicans with tax reform is that voters continue to be skeptical it’s actually going to help them on a personal level. Just 30% say they think it will help their family’s finances, to 33% who think it will hurt, and 25% who don’t think it will have an impact either way.”

Also interesting: “51% think it will mostly benefit the rich to 30% for the middle class, and just 7% for the poor.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Blue States Find Ways to Undercut New Tax Law

June 10, 2018 at 11:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Residents of some blue states may get a surprisingly big tax cut thanks to workarounds state lawmakers are crafting to subvert a controversial new cap on deductions for state and local taxes,” Politico reports.

“It’s a little noticed and unexpected dynamic in the partisan battle over the recent tax overhaul. The new SALT cap has been one of the biggest flashpoints, with Democrats from high-tax states complaining they were targeted by congressional Republicans.”

“Now, months after the law passed, Republicans are having trouble convincing voters that they’re really going to benefit from the cuts the law enacted. Meanwhile, lawmakers in blue states are magnifying the cuts with their workarounds.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Republicans Seek Plan B on Midterm Messaging

June 7, 2018 at 10:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans are working on a backup plan in case the GOP tax law does not turn out to be a strong selling point for their party in this year’s midterm elections,” The Hill reports.

“While the booming economy is expected to be a core pillar of the GOP’s midterm messaging, it’s unclear whether the party is going to get credit for the tax law, which has lagged in polls.”

“As a result, GOP leaders on both sides of the Capitol are emphasizing a breadth of legislative achievements as they seek to convince voters to keep them in charge and not deliver majorities to Democrats.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Budget & Taxes

GOP Staffers Who Wrote Tax Bill Cash In

June 4, 2018 at 7:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Top-level GOP aides who helped write the new tax law are now leaving the Hill in droves to cash in as lobbyists on K Street and other marquee private-sector destinations,” Politico reports.

“Powerhouse accounting firm PwC landed one of the biggest prizes, announcing Monday that Mark Prater, the Senate Finance Committee’s longtime GOP chief tax counsel, is the new managing director of its tax policy services group.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Lobbyists

Bannon Predicts Shutdown Before Midterms

June 1, 2018 at 11:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Steve Bannon told CNN that he thinks President Trump will force another government shutdown this fall.

Said Bannon: “I believe that what he’s going to do is, as we come up on September 30, if that appropriations bill does not include spending to fully build his wall — not some $1.6 billion for prototypes, I mean to build the southern wall — I believe he will shut down the government.”

He added: “The wall is not just totemic. The wall is absolutely central to his program.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Immigration Tagged With: Stephen Bannon

CBO’s Deficit Forecast Dwarfs White House Estimate

May 25, 2018 at 10:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Congressional Budget Office estimates the government will take in $1.9 trillion less in revenue and spend $300 billion more over the next decade than the White House estimated under its latest budget proposal if the plan were enacted,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Deficits would total $9.5 trillion over the coming decade, or $2.3 trillion more than the White House estimates.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Gas Price Rise Erases Impact of Tax Cut for Most

May 25, 2018 at 7:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “As Americans head out for traditional Memorial Day weekend road trips, they’ll confront gas prices of nearly $3 a gallon, the highest since 2014 and a 25 percent spike since last year. The increased cost of fuel is already wiping out a big chunk of the benefit Americans received from the GOP tax cuts. And things could get worse as summer approaches following the administration’s standoff with Iran and a move by oil-producing nations to tighten supplies.”

“The result: The economic and political benefits Trump and the GOP hoped to reap from cutting tax rates could be swamped by higher pump prices that Americans face every time they hit the road.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Energy

Democrats Propose Swapping Tax Cut for Teacher Salaries

May 24, 2018 at 10:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Responding to teacher walkouts across the country, congressional Democrats on Tuesday proposed raising teachers’ salaries by canceling the tax cut for the nation’s top 1 percent of earners,” the AP reports.

“The Republican-controlled Congress was unlikely to support the idea of giving states and school districts $50 billion over a decade to fund the teacher raises at the expense of dismantling the hard-won tax bill.”

“But the proposal gives Democrats an issue they can use ahead of the November midterm elections. Teachers have won widespread support, even in conservative areas, as they complain about low pay.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Education

A Government Shutdown This Fall Is Very Possible

May 22, 2018 at 8:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stan Collender: “Even though the start of the next federal fiscal year is still four months away, Congress’s action…or, really, inaction…over the past week makes it virtually certain both that a continuing resolution will need to be enacted by October 1 to keep the government operating and that there will be a possible government shutdown this fall only six weeks before the midterm elections.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Budget & Taxes

Support for Tax Law Is Falling

May 22, 2018 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll finds the popularity of the new tax law has dropped into net negatives, currently opposed by a 50% to 41% margin.

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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