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Why Trump May Shut Down the Government

September 21, 2018 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “If you’re Trump, is there any cogent case to not shut down the government one week from today? Here is what a few of the president’s allies are whispering to us.”

“It wouldn’t hurt too badly. Congress has already passed a bunch of government spending bills, ensuring a shutdown would only be a partial stoppage of government funding. Trump has bills on his desk that fund critical parts of government. Much of the money Trump wants would come in Department of Homeland Security appropriations. So if he wanted to take a stand, it would be narrowly targeted to one department.”

“This is what he promised. If you are a Republican lawmaker who believes that the 2016 election was about Trump’s hard-line immigration policies — as many conservatives tell us they do — shouldn’t you take a stand on that while you can? Shouldn’t Republicans fear their base is going to stay home if an all-Republican Washington blows it on the wall?”

“Washington might not be red for long. This could be the president’s last chance to get a wall. The House is looking like it could be lost come January. No chance in hell that the leftward-drifting House will give him the wall if they get the majority in 2019. Zero. Zip. Zilch. If Ds win the House, there is no chance the president will get a wall in the lame duck, either.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Immigration

Republicans Have Lost Messaging Battle on Tax Cuts

September 20, 2018 at 5:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new RNC survey has led Republicans “to a glum conclusion regarding President Trump’s signature legislative achievement: Voters overwhelmingly believe his tax overhaul helps the wealthy instead of average Americans,” Bloomberg reports.

Key finding: “By a 2-to-1 margin — 61% to 30% — respondents said the law benefits ‘large corporations and rich Americans’ over ‘middle class families.'”

“The result was fueled by self-identified independent voters who said by a 36-point margin that large corporations and rich Americans benefit more from the tax law — a result that was even more lopsided among Democrats. Republican voters said by a 38-point margin that the middle class benefits more.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Budget & Taxes

Trump Slams Congress Over ‘Ridiculous’ Spending Plan

September 20, 2018 at 8:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump “slammed the Republican-led Congress for not including money for his border wall in its spending bill as U.S. lawmakers push their plan to fund the government before the fiscal year ends this month,” Reuters reports.

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Senate Passes Spending Bill Without Funds for Border Wall

September 18, 2018 at 2:05 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Senate on Tuesday passed a short-term spending bill that would keep the government running through Dec. 7, aiming to put off a fight over funding for President Trump’s border wall until after the midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.

“GOP leaders designed the package to combine key Republican and Democratic priorities in an attempt to garner overwhelming bipartisan support — and give Trump a win on military spending, even as Congress delays a fight over the money he wants for his wall.”

“The legislation still must pass the House, which is expected to take it up next week. But it remains uncertain whether Trump will sign it. The president has toyed repeatedly with shutting down the government to try to get more money for the border wall.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Immigration

The Deficit Hawks Are Dead

September 15, 2018 at 6:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Their demise technically came Tuesday when the Congressional Budget Office calculated the federal deficit at $895 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal 2018 — a stunning gap that was met with a collective shrug on Capitol Hill.”

“But the real death of the deficit hawks came late last year and early this year, as Republicans such as Speaker Paul Ryan who had railed against deficits in the first years of the Obama administration pushed through a massive tax cut despite CBO projections of a surge in federal borrowing.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Congressional Leaders Agree on Plan to Avoid Shutdown

September 13, 2018 at 1:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Congressional leaders from both parties have finalized a plan to avert a government shutdown at the end of the month over President Trump’s demands to fund a border wall, and postpone that fight until after the November midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.

“The bipartisan pact… reflects the desire of Republican leaders to avoid a nasty shutdown fight weeks before the midterm elections — even if it means sacrificing, at least for now, one of Trump’s most prominent policy goals.”

“House GOP leadership aides say they believe the White House is on board with their approach, but no one can be sure what Trump ultimately will do.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Tax Cut Sparks Rush to Deduct Corporate Jets

September 13, 2018 at 7:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The recent changes to the tax code are giving business executives a new perk: the opportunity to deduct the entirety of a corporate-jet purchase,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“President Trump signed more than 100 changes to the U.S. tax code into law at the end of last year. Among them: The price of a new or used airplane purchased by a company can be a 100% write-off against its earnings.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Budget Deficit Soars 32%

September 11, 2018 at 7:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A CBO report finds the federal budget deficit hit $895 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal 2018, an increase of 32% over the same period the previous year.

Axios: “This increase was due mostly to the new Republican tax law and Congress’ routine decision to increase spending, which grew by 7% compared to revenue growth of only 1%. The CBO now says the deficit will approach $1 trillion by the end of this fiscal year, but in April the agency didn’t expect the deficit to reach $1 trillion until 2020.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

At-Risk Republicans Say No to New Tax Bill

September 9, 2018 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The White House and top congressional Republicans want to push for a House vote on a second round of tax cuts ahead of the midterms in hopes of bolstering their economic pitch to voters – but they’re running into opposition within their own party,” Politico reports.

“GOP leaders conceived of the second tax bill as a messaging win that would put Democrats on their heels ahead of the midterms, forcing them to vote against tax relief for the middle class. But the concerns over the bill are largely flowing from the Republican side, mainly from members fighting to keep hold of seats in suburban districts where President Trump is most unpopular – and that are key to the GOP’s hopes of keeping their majority.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

GOP Leaders Try to Coax Trump Away from Shutdown

September 8, 2018 at 8:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell “arrived at the White House this week armed with props aimed at flattering and cajoling President Trump out of shutting down the government at the end of this month,” the Washington Post reports.

“Ryan showed the president glossy photos of a wall under construction along the U.S.-Mexico border… McConnell brought an article from the Washington Examiner that described Trump as brilliantly handling the current budget process, and portrayed the GOP as unified and breaking through years of dysfunction.”

“Their message, according to two people briefed on the meeting: The budget process is going smoothly, the wall is already being built, and there’s no need to shut down the government. Instead, they sought to persuade Trump to put off a fight for more border wall money until after the November midterm elections, promising to try then to get him the outcome he wants.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Trump ‘Most Likely’ Won’t Force Shutdown

September 7, 2018 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump said that he “most likely” will not shut down the government before this November’s midterm elections over funding for his promised border wall, backing down somewhat from comments he made earlier this week hinting that he might take such a step, Politico reports.

Said Trump: “If it was up to me, I’d shut down government over border security. And I guess when you get right down to it, it is up to me but I don’t want to do anything to hurt us or potentially hurt us.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Ryan Claims ‘Understanding’ to Prevent Shutdown

September 6, 2018 at 1:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Speaker Paul Ryan says that he has a “good understanding” with President Trump to fund the government by a Sept. 30 deadline, despite Trump’s comments a day earlier that he would be willing to shut down government if Congress does not provide enough border security funding, Reuters reports.

Said Ryan: “We have a very good understanding with the president that we want to get our appropriations done… And we have a very good agreement and understanding that we’re going to keep government funded.”

Stan Collender: “Trump continues to be ‘consistently inconsistent’ about a shutdown so everything he says about it on any day should be taken with at least a grain, if not a whole shaker, of salt. Bottom line: There’s still a 60 percent chance of a shutdown.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Trump Backs Off Shutdown Threat

September 5, 2018 at 10:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump “said he was unlikely to shut down the federal government ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections over funding the construction of a southern border wall as part of his controversial immigration plan,” Reuters reports.

Said Trump: “I don’t like the idea of shutdowns. I don’t see even myself or anybody else closing down the country right now.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

White House Mulls ‘Partial Shutdown’

September 1, 2018 at 1:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“When Congress returns from recess after Labor Day weekend, lawmakers will have just 11 legislative days before an Oct. 1 deadline to pass new spending legislation or a stopgap funding bill to keep the government open, or risk the third government shutdown in 2018,” CNBC reports.

“But the White House is considering at least one alternative option, according to three people who have discussed the idea with West Wing officials: A ‘partial shutdown,’ in which President Trump would sign stand-alone bills to fund the majority of the government, while reserving the right to veto others if they don’t include funding for the border wall.”

“The strategy, said to be supported internally by senior policy advisor Stephen Miller and, to a lesser extent, budget director Mick Mulvaney, would eliminate traditional shutdown vignettes of withheld paychecks and closed national parks and veterans affairs facilities. It would allow the White House to exact leverage over a specific campaign issue before a potential party reorg in Congress — and prevent a forced signature on a wide-ranging and opaque spending bill that excludes his top priority.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Immigration

Trump May Have Another Reason to Shut Government

August 30, 2018 at 8:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stan Collender: “Donald Trump has added another reason he might cause a government shutdown a month from now: no pay raise for federal employees of domestic federal agencies and departments.”

“Congress can, and in my estimation probably will, reject this. The House and Senate will likely put language that mandates the civilian pay raise in the continuing resolution that will be needed by October 1 to keep the government open.”

“The question then will be what will Trump with a CR that very openly defies him.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Shutdown Odds Likely to Grow

August 27, 2018 at 9:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stan Collender: “Today, with exactly (and just) five weeks to go before the start of the next federal fiscal year, nothing has changed to make the odds of a government shutdown less than they were before the House of Representatives began its summer-Labor Day recess.”

“As a result, I’m sticking with my previous estimate that there’s a 60 percent chance the federal government will shut down this October 1.”

“That is, I’m sticking with 60 percent for now. If anything, the likelihood of a shutdown is only going to increase from here.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Obamacare More Popular Than GOP Tax Cuts

August 23, 2018 at 4:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Fox News poll finds the Affordable Care Act is more popular than the new Republican tax law.

The 2010 health-care law registered a 51% approval rating, compared with 40% for the 2017 Republican tax cuts.

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Health Care

Mulvaney Says Parade Wasn’t Cancelled Over Cost

August 19, 2018 at 11:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Budget director Mick Mulvaney said he believes President Trump’s plans for a military parade were canceled for other reasons besides the cost of the event, but would not specify other “contributing factors,” Politico reports.

Said Mulvaney:  “If the parade had been canceled purely for fiscal reasons, I imagine I would have been in the room when that was made and I wasn’t. So my guess is there were other contributing factors.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes Tagged With: Mick Mulvaney

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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