Speaker Paul Ryan says that he has a “good understanding” with President Trump to fund the government by a Sept. 30 deadline, despite Trump’s comments a day earlier that he would be willing to shut down government if Congress does not provide enough border security funding, Reuters reports.

Said Ryan: “We have a very good understanding with the president that we want to get our appropriations done… And we have a very good agreement and understanding that we’re going to keep government funded.”

Stan Collender: “Trump continues to be ‘consistently inconsistent’ about a shutdown so everything he says about it on any day should be taken with at least a grain, if not a whole shaker, of salt. Bottom line: There’s still a 60 percent chance of a shutdown.”

President Trump “said he was unlikely to shut down the federal government ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections over funding the construction of a southern border wall as part of his controversial immigration plan,” Reuters reports.

Said Trump: “I don’t like the idea of shutdowns. I don’t see even myself or anybody else closing down the country right now.”

Stan Collender: “Donald Trump has added another reason he might cause a government shutdown a month from now: no pay raise for federal employees of domestic federal agencies and departments.”

“Congress can, and in my estimation probably will, reject this. The House and Senate will likely put language that mandates the civilian pay raise in the continuing resolution that will be needed by October 1 to keep the government open.”

“The question then will be what will Trump with a CR that very openly defies him.”

Stan Collender: “Today, with exactly (and just) five weeks to go before the start of the next federal fiscal year, nothing has changed to make the odds of a government shutdown less than they were before the House of Representatives began its summer-Labor Day recess.”

“As a result, I’m sticking with my previous estimate that there’s a 60 percent chance the federal government will shut down this October 1.”

“That is, I’m sticking with 60 percent for now. If anything, the likelihood of a shutdown is only going to increase from here.”

“The instinct that some Democrats have, which is born out of a sense of responsibility as the ‘governing’ party, is to explain exactly how you’re going to pay for everything and how it all adds up. It puts you at a total disadvantage because you’re already constraining your priorities.”

— Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), in an interview with NBC News.

“The Trump administration is considering bypassing Congress to grant a $100 billion tax cut mainly to the wealthy, a legally tenuous maneuver that would cut capital gains taxation and fulfill a long-held ambition of many investors and conservatives,” the New York Times reports.

“Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, said in an interview on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit meeting in Argentina this month that his department was studying whether it could use its regulatory powers to allow Americans to account for inflation in determining capital gains tax liabilities.”

Said Mnuchin: “If it can’t get done through a legislation process, we will look at what tools at Treasury we have to do it on our own and we’ll consider that.”

President Trump “reiterated his willingness Monday to allow the government to shut down this fall if he does not receive sufficient funding for border security but he declined to take a firm stance on the specific amount of money he would accept,” CNN reports.

Said Trump: “If we don’t get border security after many, many years of talk within the United States, I would have no problem doing a shutdown. It’s time we have proper border security. We’re the laughingstock of the world. We have the worst immigration laws anywhere in the world.”

“Some of the biggest winners from President Trump’s new tax law are corporate executives who have reaped gains as their companies buy back a record amount of stock, a practice that rewards shareholders by boosting the value of existing shares,” Politico reports.

“A Politico review of data disclosed in SEC filings shows the executives, who often receive most of their compensation in stock, have been profiting handsomely by selling shares since Trump signed the law on Dec. 22 and slashed corporate tax rates to 21 percent. That trend is likely to increase as Wall Street analysts expect buyback activity to accelerate in the coming weeks.”

President Trump “threatened to shut down the federal government if Congress does not pass sweeping changes to immigration laws, including appropriating more public money to build his long-promised border wall,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump’s threat raises the stakes ahead of a Sept. 30 government funding deadline, a political showdown before the November midterms that Republican congressional leaders had hoped to avoid.”

Playbook: “Republican leaders have been telling us for months that they think they’ve convinced Trump a shutdown is a bad idea. Clearly they have not. In fact, Trump seems to be broadening his demands. He is signaling he’ll demand immigration changes as part of the government funding bill. Government funding runs out 37 days before Election Day.”

“Some in Trump’s universe believe a shutdown would be a good base-rallying tactic.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan “presented a government spending strategy intended to minimize the threat of a politically debilitating government funding lapse over border wall funding. And Trump seemed receptive,” Politico reports.

“Trump made clear to the GOP leaders that he still wants a $5 billion down payment on his wall this year, but he signaled to the leaders that he might be willing to wage that fight after the midterms. Though the House plans to pass a spending bill giving Trump $5 billion for the wall, Senate Democrats are unlikely to agree to fund more than the $1.6 billion initially requested by the Trump administration — meaning any attempt to fund the Department of Homeland Security could lead to a shutdown.”

James Hohmann: “To be sure, Trump changes his mind all the time. And just because he agrees to something today does not mean he won’t change his mind tomorrow. He’s officially endorsed bills, for example, only to equivocate after seeing a negative segment on Fox News.”

“The amount of corporate taxes collected by the federal government has plunged to historically low levels in the first six months of the year, pushing up the federal budget deficit much faster than economists had predicted,” the New York Times reports.

“The reason is President Trump’s tax cuts. The law introduced a standard corporate rate of 21 percent, down from a high of 35 percent, and allowed companies to immediately deduct many new investments. As companies operate with lower taxes and a greater ability to reduce what they owe, the federal government is receiving far less than it would have before the overhaul.”

Stan Collender: “The deadline for Congress and President Donald Trump to come to an agreement that will avoid a government shutdown this fall — which may be a much more frequent threat and occurrence these days than it used to be but would still be anything but routine – is approaching quickly and neither the White House, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) or Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have done anything to make it less likely.”

”Because of that, because the time left to prevent it from happening is steadily dwindling and because the other must-do tasks Congress has left are still multiplying, the chances of a shutdown happening this year are greater now than they were even a few week ago.”