Running to about 1,000 pages, the U.S. tax package known as the “big beautiful bill” covers a bewildering array of topics. Yet one tweak that ought to have been included wasn’t: the “carried interest” distortion that plumps the feather beds of private equity executives, the Financial Times reports.
Accounting Gimmicks Could End Up Biting Republicans
Playbook: “There’s a dawning realization on the Hill that the procedural tricks being deployed by GOP leaders to get this thing done may someday come back to bite them. The Republicans’ use of the so-called current policy baseline — an accounting trick by which temporary tax cuts are made permanent without any apparent cost in the budget — could in theory be used in equally imaginative ways by a future Dem trifecta to enact high-cost policies like Medicare For All via reconciliation.”
Sahil Kapur: “If ‘current policy’ becomes the norm in reconciliation, one (very) hypothetical example of how Democrats could wield it: Pass a $10 trillion Medicare For All bill for 1 yr at a $1T sticker price and extend it permanently the next year at a $0 cost. All without nuking the filibuster.”
Republicans Face Ferocious Ad Campaign
“A ferocious advertising campaign is underway with passage of President Donald Trump’s landmark policy bill hanging in the balance, as political groups and business interests spent at least $35 million just this month to try to sway key members of Congress and their constituents,” CNN reports.
GOP Megabill Would Add $3.3 Trillion to Debt
The CBO estimates that the Republican reconciliation bill that the Senate is considering will increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion between 2025 to 2034, Bloomberg reports.
Punchbowl News says Senate Republicans and the White House reject the CBO estimate as inaccurate. The White House estimates it will cut the deficit by $4.9 trillion over the next decade.
How the GOP Bill Saves Money
“Low-income Americans would lose health coverage and government food assistance on an unprecedented scale under the giant Republican policy bill,“ the New York Times reports.
“But to hear President Trump and Republican lawmakers describe the bill as it nears a vote in the Senate, it cuts no benefits at all.”
Said Trump: “We’re cutting $1.7 trillion in this bill, and you’re not going to feel any of it.”
“That claim rests on a maneuver embedded throughout the sprawling legislation: Instead of explicitly reducing benefits, Republicans would make them harder to get and to keep. The effect, analysts say, is the same, with millions fewer Americans receiving assistance. By including dozens of changes to dates, deadlines, document requirements and rules, Republicans have turned paperwork into one of the bill’s crucial policy-making tools, yielding hundreds of billions of dollars in savings to help offset their signature tax cuts.”
Elon Musk Rips Into Trump’s “Utterly Insane” Tax Bill
“After a brief interlude, Elon Musk on Saturday resumed his public wrestling match with President Donald Trump, ripping into the president’s domestic policy bill as ‘utterly insane and destructive’ just as the Senate met to vote on a key procedural step to pass the ‘big beautiful bill,’” Mother Jones reports.
Wrote Musk, on X: “The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!”
In a later post, Musk warned that the bill would be “political suicide” for the Republican Party.
Schumer to Force Reading of 1,000 Page GOP Megabill
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told Democratic senators Saturday that he will force the clerks to read the 1,000-page Republican megabill on the Senate floor once Republicans vote to proceed to the legislation, a procedural act of defiance that will take an estimated 12 hours and delay final passage of President Trump’s agenda by half a day — at least, The Hill reports.
GOP Toils to Pass a Bill With Plenty to Hate
“As Congress inches toward final action on the sweeping domestic policy package that President Trump is calling the ‘big, beautiful bill,’ it has come down to this: Republicans are preparing to back a measure that they fear gives their constituents little to love and lots to hate,” the New York Times reports.
“The struggle Republicans are experiencing in securing votes for the legislation emanates from the fact that they are being asked to embrace steep cuts to the government safety net that could hit their states and districts hard — all in the service of extending existing tax cuts that don’t offer much in the way of new benefits for most Americans.”
For members: Republicans Push Forward With Deeply Unpopular Bill
Trump Pivots to Tax Cuts to Combat Voter Anxiety
“President Donald Trump is pivoting his attention to passing the cornerstone of his legislative agenda, pressuring Congress to quickly approve a massive tax bill that Republicans believe will seal their political fortunes in the midterm elections,” Bloomberg reports.
“Trump has spent recent days focused on foreign affairs — the Iranian conflict, the Group of 7 in Canada and his most recent trip to a NATO summit in the Netherlands. Now, he’s shifting to a domestic matter: strong-arming fractious Republican lawmakers to cut a deal on a multi-trillion dollar tax bill by an ambitious July 4 deadline.”
NPR: Under pressure, Trump continues to push his agenda.
Trump’s Bill Slashes Safety Net His Voters Rely On
“From the start of his second term, President Trump has bet that he can appeal to low-income voters while slashing safety net programs on which many of those voters depend,” the New York Times reports.
“The enormous tax-and-spending bill he is trying to push through Congress is a high-stakes test of that proposition, a gamble that Mr. Trump can retain the loyalty of his blue-collar supporters despite moves that could harm their immediate economic self-interest.”
Tax Hike Floated for Mega-Millionaires
“Sen. Susan Collins floated a new proposal Wednesday to increase taxes on Americans making more than $100 million a year, the latest indication that Republicans’ work is far from done on the massive tax and spending bill President Donald Trump wants passed by July 4,” Bloomberg reports.
“Republicans battled as the deadline approached over a range of disagreements including how deeply to cut social safety-net programs, what limit to set on deductions for state and local taxes and how to handle financial fallout for institutions such as rural hospitals.”
Mike Johnson Warns About Medicaid Backlash
“Speaker Mike Johnson is warning in private that Senate Republicans could cost House Republicans their majority next year if they try to push through the deep Medicaid cuts in the current Senate version,” Politico reports.
Trump Is Preparing to Test Budget Law
“The Trump administration is preparing to test a 1974 budget law by refusing to spend congressionally mandated funds, senior federal officials say — an escalation that could change the balance of power between Congress and the White House,” the Washington Post reports.
“In both internal communications and interviews, more than two dozen current and former employees across multiple agencies said the administration appears to be readying to push the boundaries of the law meant to prevent the president from unilaterally overturning spending decisions made by Congress.”
“Key White House aides have long argued that the law is an unconstitutional limit on presidential power and suggested they will seek court rulings to overturn it, which could allow the White House to determine which spending to carry out.”
White House Ramps Up Sales Pitch for Tax Plan
“The White House is stepping up its efforts to sell the GOP megabill ahead of an impending Senate vote,” Politico reports.
“The legislation is far from finalized, but the Council of Economic Advisers is sending its first analysis of the Senate bill to Congress Wednesday.”
“The analysis is significantly rosier than projections from most other economists, who doubt that the Republican plan will do much for growth because the tax breaks for businesses — which have the most potential economic oomph — are relatively small, especially compared to the 2017 bill. Their tax package this time around is much more focused on cutting taxes for individuals while piling on debt that most economists believe will push up interest rates and create a drag on growth.”
Republicans Hate the Reconciliation Bill
Punchbowl News: “There are nine days until July 4 — Republicans’ deadline to pass President Donald Trump’s ‘one big, beautiful bill.’”
“But there’s a problem — It seems like lots of Republicans loathe the GOP’s massive reconciliation bill. The complaints span the party’s ideological spectrum — and they’re only getting louder.”
GOP Works to Salvage Cuts to Anti-Hunger Program
“Senate Republicans believe they can salvage tens of billions of dollars in spending cuts across the country’s largest anti-hunger program to help pay for the GOP megabill by making language tweaks to comply with the Senate’s rules,” Politico reports.
Hawley Warns Senators Medicaid Crackdown Won’t Fly
“Sen. Josh Hawley is urging GOP leaders to strike Senate Finance Committee language altering a key Medicaid financing provision, warning he’s already hearing from House Republicans that it can’t clear their chamber,” Politico reports.
Said Hawley: “I don’t know why we would pass something that the House can’t pass and will force us into a conference.”
Axios: “Hawley has been the loudest GOP voice fighting against Medicaid cuts. He was shocked and angered by the Senate going even further than the House to find Medicaid savings. House leadership’s concerns could help his case.“
White House Floats New Funding Trick
Politico: “Russ Vought’s relationship with Republican appropriators was already strained. Then he started talking about pursuing the ultimate end-run around their funding power heading into the fall.”
“The White House budget director has been persistently touting the virtues of ‘pocket rescissions,’ a tactic he has floated as a way to codify the spending cuts Elon Musk made while atop his Department of Government Efficiency initiative, and which the federal government’s top watchdog says is illegal.”
