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What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Ronald Lauder Closes His Wallet

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“For decades, Ronald S. Lauder, the billionaire cosmetics heir and philanthropist, has been something like a one-man bank for Republicans in New York,” the New York Times reports.

“He personally funded a campaign to impose term limits in New York City, helped pay for a lawsuit to overturn the state’s gerrymandered congressional map and, just four years ago, plowed close to $13 million into races that helped Republicans flip the House.”

“Now, in the middle of another crucial midterm election year, Mr. Lauder, 82, appears to have abruptly closed his political checkbook, and the ramifications for the conservative movement he has nurtured in his home state could be significant.”

Democrats Struggle with No Corporate PAC Pledge

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“An increasing number of Democratic candidates are pledging to reject donations from business-linked political action committees in 2026 — a promise House Democrats say is easier said than done,” NOTUS reports.

Said one House Democrat: “I am deciding whether I’m going to committee or a meeting based on whether I have to meet with individual donors. That’s fucked up.'”

“Democrats who take funds from corporate super PACs ‘perform significantly worse’ against a Republican candidate compared to Democrats who reject outside PAC money, according to a recent analysis from the progressive think tank Data for Progress. That leaves candidates facing what is likely to be the most expensive midterm election in history with few good options: take money from corporations and alienate the base, or spend all day, every day, dialing individual donors for dollars.”

The Democrats’ Biggest Donors Have Gone On Strike

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Wall Street Journal: “While many Democratic elites still feel bullish about taking back the House and are willing to throw big money at their favorite candidates, institutional fatigue—and in some cases, full-on drama—has set in among a number of the party’s biggest donors. Like voters, donors say they feel disillusioned with Washington and the party establishment they have long supported.”

“The DNC isn’t the only problem spot for Democrats—other Democratic committees and super PACs lag behind Republicans across the board. It is common for a party that is out of power in Washington to struggle, but Democrats are increasingly concerned it will hurt their chances of winning this fall as Republicans stack up significantly more money in committees and PACs that can organize door-knocking efforts and air TV ads.”

The Most Expensive Democratic Primary Ever

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Mother Jones: “Next Tuesday’s contest in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens holds a dubious distinction: No Democratic congressional primary in history has ever attracted so much super PAC cash. The overwhelming majority of the outside money has gone toward ensuring that Stevens, a moderate, pro-Israel Democrat, defeats El-Sayed, a Bernie Sanders-endorsed champion of Medicare for All and Israel critic.”

“More than $60 million of outside spending has poured into the Senate contest, according to records from the Federal Election Commission and the Federal Communications Commission. The vast majority has come from super PACs that—unlike El-Sayed’s and Stevens’ own campaigns—can accept unlimited donations.”

Ken Martin and the DNC Have a 2028 Problem

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“Major Democratic donors are getting really anxious about 2028,” Politico reports.

“The Democratic National Committee has a massive cash deficit heading into November, and Chair Ken Martin is facing a growing onslaught of criticism for failing to build up reserves in the crucial years ahead of the presidential race. But the issue goes beyond his leadership.”

“More than half a dozen donors, bundlers and donor advisers, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said they’ve lost trust in the party’s top organization.”

Inside Trump’s Unprecedented Fundraising Operation

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“Almost every night in the White House, President Trump calls his fundraiser, Meredith O’Rourke, for an update,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Trump asks O’Rourke which companies and donors have cut checks and which haven’t, and for how much. He often asks her to make much larger financial requests than she was planning—for some donors the ask is $5 million, for others it is $50 million. And the president gives her names to call, often including people who have recently met with him.”

GOP Lawmaker Returns Money After Donor Pardoned

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“Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA) returned a donation to a man convicted of fraud in connection with the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal following reporting that President Donald Trump pardoned him just three days after the contribution,” NOTUS reports.

Trump’s pardon power looks less like an instrument of mercy than a rewards program for people with political connections.
Taegan

Elon Musk Plans at Least $100 Million in Midterm Spending

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“Elon Musk, a year after voicing deep frustration with the Republican Party and threatening to start a third party, appears to be back in the fold and prepared to spend big in the midterms to help GOP candidates,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Musk, the world’s richest person, has authorized his super PAC to spend $100 million to $120 million on a new field program in at least eight states to help elect Republicans in November.”

Musk recently admitted he got “carried away” with politics. His apparent solution is to spend another $100 million on politics.
Taegan

Andy Ogles Hit with $2 Million Cash Barrage in Primary

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“A super PAC that has invested millions to unseat Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) is putting another $700,000 behind his GOP primary challenger in the final week of the campaign,” Axios reports.

“Ogles was already facing one his most perilous reelection battle to date, with Democrats making him one of their top targets in November. But first he has to get the nomination, which is not a done deal.”

Elon Musk Plans Massive Spending for Republicans

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Axios: “Musk is resuscitating his dormant super PAC, America PAC, which spent more than $260 million to help get President Trump elected in 2024.”

“America PAC will focus on door-knocking, digital advertising and direct mail aimed at turning out the conservative base, including voters who typically are less inclined to cast ballots in a non-presidential election year.”

Elon Musk briefly threatened to break the two-party system. Instead, he is spending another fortune to reinforce it.
Taegan

Obama to Headline Democratic Redistricting Fundraiser

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“Former President Barack Obama will hold a fund-raiser in late August for the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a fresh sign that Democrats intend to continue their aggressive push to gerrymander congressional districts ahead of the 2028 election,” the New York Times reports.

Obama once made ending partisan gerrymandering a signature cause of his post-presidency. Now he’s helping Democrats become more effective at it.
Taegan

Bipartisan Bill Bars Campaign Funds for Sex Scandals

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“Federal politicians would be barred from using campaign contributions to fight or settle sexual misconduct allegations under a bill announced Tuesday by two House members from opposite sides of the political spectrum,” the Washington Post reports.

“The proposal, from Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), aims to further shape the debate over how Congress should move forward from a spate of sexual misconduct scandals this spring, which prompted the creation of a bipartisan working group to revise the policies protecting Capitol Hill staffers.”

Susan Collins Holds Enormous Cash Edge in Maine

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“Even before Graham Platner withdrew from Maine’s Senate race in disgrace this month, he and his Democratic allies were severely outmatched in the race for cash,” the New York Times reports.

“Now his replacement, Troy Jackson, inherits a difficult situation: He has just over four months to erect a defense against a towering Republican super PAC apparatus that is intent on re-electing Senator Susan Collins.”

Ken Griffin Gives $10M to Byron Donalds’ Campaign

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“Billionaire GOP donor Ken Griffin is contributing $10 million to Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, who is the overwhelming favorite to get his party’s nomination,” NBC News reports.

“Donalds, a member of Congress, has raised roughly $90 million to date; he has a commanding money lead and polling advantage over a handful of other candidates in the GOP primary. The $10 million check from Griffin, the founder of the Miami-based hedge fund Citadel, is by far the biggest contribution Donalds has received since he launched his bid for governor.”

Democrats Have a Massive Outside Cash Problem

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“Democrats are apprehensive that Republicans’ massive outside spending advantage could erase the prospects of a blue wave heading into the midterms,” Politico reports.

”The three main GOP party committees and their two caucus-aligned super PACs reported $657 million cash on hand at the end of June, according to the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission. That’s nearly double the $334 million held by their Democratic rivals.”

”And those disparities don’t even account for the largest potential GOP money bomb, the MAGA Inc. super PAC linked to President Donald Trump, which reported over $400 million in the bank as of a few weeks ago. Democrats have no equivalent to MAGA Inc.”

Bloomberg: Trump has spent 0.6% of his $401 million super PAC to boost GOP.

Democrats Narrow GOP Cash Advantage

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“Republicans are heading into the fall campaign season with a lopsided cash advantage across their flagship committees and super PACs, but Democrats narrowed the gap with stronger fundraising by individual candidates,” the Washington Post reports.

”The latest campaign finance reports showed the GOP’s wealth concentrated in the hands of President Donald Trump and his advisers, as super PACs and party committees they control dominated the party’s fundraising. Democrats, by contrast, spread their contributions across individual congressional candidates, making them better-equipped than their head-to-head opponents.”

Washington Post: Democrats chip away at GOP cash lead centered on Trump.

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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