JPMorgan says President Trump’s pause of tariffs on most countries makes “the prospect of a recession is a closer call. However, we still think a contraction in real activity later this year is more likely than not.”
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump “privately acknowledged that his trade policy could trigger a recession but said he wanted to be sure it didn’t cause a depression.”
Felix Salmon: “We’ve never lived in a world of anything remotely close to 125 percent tariffs on one of our largest trading partners which means the effects of such things are incredibly hard to model.”
Bloomberg says these tariffs are now “beyond the level economists say would decimate bilateral trade.”
Playbook: “America wakes up to a trade war this morning — just not the one we’d been promised. Trump’s bond-market-induced case of the yips may have won tariff reprieves for dozens of nations, but don’t be fooled. The trade barriers he’s pressing ahead with today still mark a 100-year high point for U.S. protectionism, and will have huge repercussions for the American and global economies.”
“Most significantly, the world’s two most powerful nations now find themselves in an economic standoff of epic proportions — with experts predicting pain on both sides.
You're reading the free version of Political Wire
Upgrade to a paid membership to unlock full access. The process is quick and easy. You can even use Apple Pay.
Ben Thompson: “The problem with these tariffs is that their scale and indiscriminate nature will have the effect of destroying demand and destroying the capability to develop alternative supply. I suppose if the only goal is to hurt China then shooting yourself in the foot, such that you no longer need to buy shoes for stumps, is a strategy you could choose, but that does nothing to help with what should be the primary motivation: shoring up the U.S. national security base.”
“Those national security concerns are real… if the U.S. wants to be competitive in the future, and not be dependent on China, it really does need to make changes — just not these ones.”
To add to the overall uncertainty, President Trump said he might consider exempting some U.S. companies from the tariffs over the 90-day pause period, the New York Times reports.
He said his thinking on this would be made “instinctively.”
A new Quinnipiac poll finds a vast majority of voters (72 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy in the short-term, while a smaller majority (53 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy in the long-term as well.
Playbook: “President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs came into force at midnight, and this morning we awaken to a different world. The free trade system that America has embraced and nurtured since the mid-1930s has been officially torpedoed by direct order of the president.”
“America’s trade barriers are now higher than at any point in the past 100 years, and key trade partners Canada, China and Europe are all preparing to hit back. And Trump made clear last night that this is not the high-water mark, with tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry coming next.”
“This is Trump’s America: You all saw the chart — now it’s reality for importers (and soon, shoppers) across the country. A 104 percent tax on cheap consumer goods from China. A 46 percent tax on cheap clothes made in Vietnam. A 24 percent tax on Japanese machinery and electronics. A 20 percent tax on European food, drink and goods.“
“Republican lawmakers are pressing the Trump administration to strike deals to walk back tariffs and are asking the White House for more details on strategy — even as they remain hesitant to criticize the president’s sweeping changes, which have sparked economic turmoil,” the Washington Post reports.
“Republicans on Capitol Hill remain largely in lockstep with President Donald Trump, holding back on legislation that could give Congress back its once-exclusive authority to issue tariffs. But many worry about paying a political price if the economy falters and are holding out hope that the tariffs are a temporary negotiating tactic.”
“Wall Street billionaires are not used to being on the outside looking in. But that is where they find themselves after President Trump ignored their appeals to call off his tariff plans which they fear could endanger the economy,” the New York Times reports.
“With the backdrop of rapidly mounting stock market losses, corporate titans have worked every angle — phone calls, social media and even a typically staid shareholder letter — to try to change Mr. Trump’s mind.”
“The reality of a global trade war is starting to push corporate bosses to do what they tried for months to avoid: criticize President Trump’s policies,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“In the days after Trump announced the sweeping levies last week, chief executives stuck to privately channeling their frustrations to trade groups and lobbyists. Some hastily arranged new meetings on trade with Trump officials, sometimes receiving unsatisfying answers, executives and corporate advisers say.”
“Now, after a three-day market selloff and warnings from Wall Street titans such as Bill Ackman and Jamie Dimon, more business leaders are openly voicing concern.”
A new Navigator Research poll finds that the share of Americans who say the economy is “getting worse” is now higher than it was before Donald Trump won the election in November 2024, and that 58% of Americans disapprove of his tariffs, while only 30% approve.
“President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles, which went into effect last week, are already sending tremors through the auto industry, prompting companies to stop shipping cars to the United States, shut down factories in Canada and Mexico and lay off workers in Michigan and other states,” the New York Times reports.
Juliette Kayyem: “Deliberately insulting other countries is bad for the U.S. economy.”
Edward Alden: “Whatever is written from here on about Trump, the word “conservative” should never again be attached to his name—he is a revolutionary, tearing down the old order and watching from the comfortable perch of his wealth and power to see where the pieces land.”
“The question now is whether the rest of the country—Congress, the courts, the American people—will follow him into the abyss.”
“I don’t think inflation’s gonna be a big deal.”
— Donald Trump, talking to reporters.
John Ellis: “You can’t grow coffee in any of the United States of America except Hawaii. And you can’t begin to grow enough coffee in Hawaii to meet even a small part of America’s daily demand. So you have import it from all around the world (Africa, South America, Central America, Asia).”
“Right now, a cup of coffee or a can of coffee at the supermarket or a 5-pound bag… costs X. This week it will cost X plus 10%. At least. If the coffee comes from certain countries, it will cost X plus a lot more.”
“Politically speaking, what the White House has managed to create here is a daily reminder to every single coffee drinker in the United States of America that their cost of living has increased. Every day they will get this little memo…
“In the annals of political stupidity go, there are ‘own goals’ and there are ‘own goals’. This one is epic.”
Goldman Sachs said that if President Trump’s next set of tariffs do take effect on Wednesday as planned, “we expect to change our forecast to a recession.”
Axios: “When everything gets more expensive everywhere because of tariffs, that starts a cycle for businesses, too — one that might end with layoffs, bankruptcies, and higher prices for the survivors’ customers.”
“The cycle is just starting now, but the pain is immediate.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”
— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”
“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”
— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report
“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”
— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report
“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”
— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia
“Political Wire is a great, great site.”
— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”
“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”
— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post
“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”
— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit
“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”
— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.