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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

8 in 10 Americans Disapprove of Trump On Inflation

October 1, 2026 · 4:59 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Aaron Blake: “What we can say right now is that President Donald Trump’s handling of inflation is a historic liability — the likes of which we’ve rarely seen in modern American politics.”

“As many as 8 in 10 Americans now disapprove of Trump on that issue. That’s more than disapproved of presidents for wars gone wrong, botched crisis responses and even major scandals like Watergate.”

“A new AP-NORC poll on Thursday was the latest ugly data point for Trump. It showed Americans disapproved of him on cost-of-living issues by a stunning margin: 82% to 17%.”

“It’s rare to get even 70% of Americans to agree on anything political. But Trump has managed to unite 8 in 10 Americans against his handling of one of the country’s most important issues.”

Economy, White House

Republicans Halt Affordability Efforts

October 1, 2026 · 3:37 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Republican-led Congress has left Washington until after the midterm election, abandoning efforts to address voters’ angst over affordability even as President Donald Trump’s economic approval hits new lows,” Bloomberg reports.

“After some fits and starts, GOP lawmakers failed to act on record diesel prices they acknowledge are crushing farmers and truckers. They ignored Trump’s call to shrink credit card swipe fees and a bipartisan plan to cap insulin costs. They’re divided on how to tame the nation’s soaring interest costs. And they made no headway on Trump-backed stimulus checks.”

2026 Campaign, Economy

Mortgage Rates Surge

October 1, 2026 · 2:41 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Mortgage rates posted their largest increase in four years this week, one of the clearest signs of how the recent bond-market selloff is spilling into the broader economy,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Mortgage rates are rising as inflation, a surge in government debt and heavy corporate borrowing for the build-out of AI push up bond yields, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices. The bond-market selloff is raising borrowing costs for home buyers and dealing blow after blow to a limping housing market.”

Economy, Financial Markets

Gap Between the Rich and the Very Rich Is Getting Wider

October 1, 2026 · 7:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The ultrawealthy aren’t just pulling away from average Americans. Buoyed by a stock-market boom that has added trillions of dollars to their net worth, the extremely rich are even pulling away from other rich Americans,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The top 0.1% wealthiest Americans have seen their total wealth more than double since the end of 2019, according to new data from the Federal Reserve. The year the pandemic started was when the ultrawealthy began to pull away from other rich groups.”

Economy

Republicans Agonize Over Their Economic Inaction

October 1, 2026 · 6:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Senate Republicans are departing Washington to defend their majority — and many are carrying with them real fear that the party didn’t do enough to address constituents’ economic concerns ahead of the impending election,” Semafor reports.

“Despite passing a huge tax cut law last year, Republicans are fretting they have not demonstrated to voters that they are tackling high gas prices, stubborn inflation, and sky-high interest rates that threaten their House and Senate majorities come November.”

2026 Campaign, Economy, Senate

Quote of the Day

October 1, 2026 · 6:21 am ET · Leave a Comment

“If you’re not worried, you’re living in a cave. There’s no question that there’s people out there that are hurting.”

— Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV), quoted by Semafor.

Economy

Oil Is Flowing From the Gulf, but Prices Remain High

October 1, 2026 · 5:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

“More oil is flowing from the Middle East than at any point since the start of the war with Iran, yet crude still costs almost $100 a barrel, much more than at other times when supplies were more constrained,” the New York Times reports.

“That seeming conundrum can partly be explained by a change in traders’ views about how long the conflict is going to last. Optimism that an enduring peace deal might be around the corner has given way to concern that hostilities could restart.”

Economy, Foreign Affairs

Populist Policies Win Bipartisan Support

September 29, 2026 · 7:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Americans in both parties back government-imposed price caps and other market interventions to make life more affordable, suggesting new support for populist ideas that were once largely outside the political mainstream,” a Wall Street Journal poll finds.

“The survey suggests that a coalition reaching beyond the nation’s familiar party labels exists for a range of policies at a time when Americans view Republicans and Democrats negatively.”

Economy, Polling

Decline in Tourism Hits U.S. Economy

September 29, 2026 · 7:51 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Overseas visitors to the U.S. are on track to drop by almost two million year-on-year, with even the FIFA Men’s World Cup failing to arrest the decline in tourism,” Semafor reports.

Economy

Americans Are Growing More Pessimistic About Economy

September 29, 2026 · 10:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Americans’ confidence in the economy deteriorated this month as prices remain elevated and wages stagnate amid the ongoing Iran war,” the Associated Press reports.

“The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index tumbled 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August.”

“Respondents’ views of their present situation fell by 7.9 points to 109.3. Their short-term outlook also slid, falling 5.9 points to 63.6.”

Economy

Midterm Pocketbook Pain Bites Trump

September 29, 2026 · 6:38 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Five weeks before the midterms, Americans’ pocketbook pain is getting worse: paychecks haven’t kept up with inflation for the better part of this year, and borrowing costs have surged,” Axios reports.

“President Trump’s record is effectively on the ballot, and economic sentiment remains deeply depressed, including among Republican voters.”

2026 Campaign, Economy

Kevin Hassett Expects 4% GDP Growth as Base Case

September 28, 2026 · 1:28 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“White House Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett expects GDP growth to be around 4% and he says the biggest contributor is the productivity boom,” Bloomberg reports.

Economy

Trump to Announce Largest Steel Plant in in Iowa

September 28, 2026 · 10:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump on Monday is set to announce that the largest steel plant in U.S. history will be built in Iowa over the coming years, a White House official said,” CBS News reports.

“The president and the Minnesota-based company Mesabi Metallics are expected to unveil the company’s $15 billion plans in the Oval Office at 2 p.m. for what the White House is calling a mega steel plant. Once it’s up and running in 2030, the plant is expected to produce 7.5 million or more tons of steel per year. A White House official said the plant is expected to create 1,750 permanent jobs in Iowa.”

Wall Street Journal: Trump will announce a Minnesota company’s plan to build a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa.

Economy, White House

Trump Is ‘Very Seriously’ Looking at Diesel Export Ban

September 28, 2026 · 7:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump said he is still looking ‘very seriously’ at implementing a U.S. ban on diesel exports to combat high prices, even as others in his administration continue to focus on other possible steps,” Bloomberg reports.

Said Trump: “That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we’re looking at it very seriously — we may do it.”

Semafor: Oil prices rise as hope for a U.S.-Iran truce fades.

Economy, Energy, White House

Bonus Quote of the Day

September 28, 2026 · 7:08 am ET · Leave a Comment

“People are worried about the cost of living, I don’t know how else to say it. We just haven’t addressed it.”

— Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), quoted by Politico, as the Senate prepares to leave until after the midterm elections.

Economy, Senate

Moves That Backfired On Trump and Spiked Interest Rates

September 27, 2026 · 11:06 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“In the early days of President Trump’s second term, his economic advisers laid out a simple theory: Show the bond market that Washington was serious about closing its gaping deficits, and long-term interest rates would fall on their own. Trump could leave the Federal Reserve alone,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“It hasn’t worked out that way.”

“Inflation is rising, the Fed is raising rates and the 10-year Treasury yield is well above where it stood on Inauguration Day, when the new team blamed high rates on runaway Biden-era spending. Last week, that yield reached the highest level since 2007 as investors weighed a resilient economy, prolonged energy disruptions that threaten to aggravate price pressures and a central bank losing patience waiting for them to fade.”

Economy, White House

Soaring Diesel Costs Are Clobbering Trump Voters

September 27, 2026 · 7:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Diesel prices soaring to record highs this past week have caused Republican candidates in solid-red parts of the country to call for an end to President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and for a ban on diesel exports, as the issue rattles the party’s MAGA base in a way that few have in this midterm election year,” the Washington Post reports.

2026 Campaign, Economy, Foreign Affairs

MAGA Loyalists Don’t See an Affordability Problem

September 27, 2026 · 6:13 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Not everyone thinks there’s an affordability crisis,” Politico reports.

”While many Americans say the cost of living is the top issue facing the U.S. more than any other, President Donald Trump’s MAGA base does not always agree, according to a new analysis of The Politico Poll. Just 28 percent of voters who self-identify as part of the MAGA movement say expenses have become less affordable since Trump took office.”

“In fact, MAGA voters are more likely to say things have gotten better rather than worse.”

Economy, White House

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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