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The Worries That Drove Uncle Sam to Buy Yen

August 3, 2026 at 5:05 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In carrying out their first joint effort in a generation to boost the yen, the U.S. and Japan are seeking to contain tremors that could be triggered by a cratering Japanese currency,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The yen’s slide to a 40-year low indirectly threatened to bump up U.S. interest rates and risked throwing a wrench in plans to pull billions of dollars of Japanese investment into the U.S. “

“By propping up first Argentina’s currency and now the yen, President Trump is showing that he’s prepared to help allies who are battling financial markets, a contrast to the hands-off approach long favored by U.S. policymakers except in moments of exceptional peril.”

Filed Under: Financial Markets, Foreign Affairs, White House

Bond Sell-Off Sent Warning On Fed’s Credibility

July 31, 2026 at 8:21 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A top Federal Reserve official has warned this week’s sell-off in U.S. Treasuries is a signal that the central bank must earn its ‘credibility’ on fighting inflation by backing up its rhetoric with interest rate rises,” the Financial Times reports.

Said St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “Mr Market spoke this week, and I took a signal from it. The signal emphasized to me that we need to continue to earn our credibility every day with both effective communications and actions as needed.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets

Warsh Considers Reducing Frequency of Fed Meetings

July 31, 2026 at 5:13 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled meetings at which the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, a potentially seismic move that would mark the most significant change in how the central bank operates in years,” the New York Times reports.

“The Federal Reserve’s 12-person policy committee meets eight times a year and votes on whether to lift, lower or hold borrowing costs. Mr. Warsh raised the idea of changing the frequency of those meetings at the Fed’s gathering this week.”

Bloomberg: Warsh’s Fed is “upending markets.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets

Long-Term Treasury Yields at 19-Year High

July 30, 2026 at 8:33 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Treasury yields are hovering at multiyear highs, reflecting worries about rising inflation and the Fed’s willingness to combat it after officials held interest rates unchanged for a seventh month,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Trump can demand lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. But he cannot bully the bond market.
Taegan

Filed Under: Financial Markets

Fed Holds Rates Steady but Three Voted for Increase

July 29, 2026 at 2:04 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady Wednesday over the objections of three bank presidents who wanted an increase, underscoring how pressure is building inside the central bank to act on inflation that has run above its target for five years,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

CNBC: Warsh’s plan for a more opaque Fed will get put to the test by markets on edge.

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets

The New Fed Chair Won’t Tell You What He Thinks

July 26, 2026 at 7:08 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Ask Kevin Warsh how the Federal Reserve should think about inflation, talk to markets or weigh the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy, and the new chair has a stock answer: There’s a task force for that,” the Washington Post reports.

“Five new task forces, in fact. Roughly two months into his tenure, Warsh has handed panels of outside experts core questions about Fed policy and said little about where he thinks any of it should land.”

Said Warsh: “If we get policy right — and we will, the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets

Key Interest Rate Jumps to Highest Level of Trump’s Term

July 24, 2026 at 6:42 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump returned to office promising lower costs across the economy, but an important interest rate that his administration cites as a barometer of its success recently hit its highest level of Mr. Trump’s second term,” the New York Times reports.

“The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, considered one of the most important interest rates in the world, jumped this week to 4.7 percent, up from less than 4 percent before the start of the war in Iran in late February. It was 4.6 percent on the day Mr. Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.”

“The yield underpins borrowing costs across debt markets, from corporate bonds to mortgage loans, and its rise complicates Mr. Trump’s plans to keep costs affordable for companies and households across the United States.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets, White House

Higher Treasury Yields Signal New Era for Interest Rates

July 23, 2026 at 6:35 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The relentless run-up in Treasury yields reflects the globe’s new economic reality: It takes a much richer reward to persuade investors to lend their money, especially for the longer run,” Axios reports.

“Unlike previous bond sell-offs driven by inflation fears, this one reflects a world in which governments and companies are scrambling for enormous amounts of capital to finance wide fiscal deficits, the AI infrastructure buildout and more.”

”The competition is forcing borrowers to pay more.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets

Oil Prices Jump After Houthis Attack Red Sea Tankers

July 23, 2026 at 8:15 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Oil prices are racing back toward $100 this morning after Tehran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening another important route for oil flows and stoking fears that the U.S.-Iran conflict could escalate further,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Filed Under: Financial Markets, Foreign Affairs

Kevin Warsh’s Fed Communication Strategy Has Trade-Offs

July 23, 2026 at 5:00 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh testified before Congress over two days last week, totaling more than five hours. Yet it was comments from several of his colleagues that gave the clearest picture of what the central bank is likely to do at next week’s policy meeting,” Axios reports.

“It is a central paradox of Warsh’s communications strategy. He is determined to get out of the business of giving markets and the public much guidance on future policy, which means the markets fill in the gaps based on comments from other officials.”

“That isn’t necessarily a bad thing — it preserves flexibility on interest rate policy that was diminished when former Fed chiefs all but preannounced upcoming rate moves.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets

The Economy Is Increasingly Relying On the AI Boom

July 22, 2026 at 4:56 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“There is an adage in the financial world: The stock market is not the economy,” the New York Times reports.

“Except that, right now, maybe it is.”

“Major stock indexes have set record after record in recent years, fueled by seemingly boundless appetite among investors for anything connected to artificial intelligence. The total value of the U.S. stock market has more than doubled over the past decade to over $75 trillion, roughly two and a half times the annual output of the entire U.S. economy, itself a record ratio.”

“Much of that value exists only on paper, bets on future profits that may or may not materialize in the years ahead. But the boom is supporting real economic activity today, pumping trillions of dollars of investment into semiconductor factories, data centers, power plants and transmission lines. And the wealth it is creating is helping to drive consumer spending, particularly among affluent Americans, whose appreciating stock portfolios make them more willing to shell out for luxury vacations, pricey electronics and meals at high-end restaurants.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets, Technology

The AI Bubble Is No Ordinary Bubble

July 22, 2026 at 1:00 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Annie Lowrey: “No less an authority than Sam Altman is arguing that we are in an AI bubble. The International Monetary Fund is citing it as a significant risk to financial stability and warning about what might happen when it bursts: diminished investment, tighter credit, reduced consumption, disrupted trade flows.”

“That’s pretty much what happens when any bubble pops, as a Dutch tulip obsessive could have told you in 1637 or a bitcoin evangelist could have told you in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018, or 2022. Yet the AI bubble is no ordinary bubble. Hyper-rich corporations are stoking it, rather than kitchen-table investors. They’re blowing it up when credit is fairly expensive, not dirt cheap. That might make the bubble less fragile and longer lasting than those of the past. But it won’t make it any less painful when it pops.”

Filed Under: Economy, Financial Markets, Technology

Bond Traders Are Tuning Out Trump Posts

July 21, 2026 at 11:15 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Three months into the Iran war, bond market traders are tuning out President Trump’s posts on his personal social media site, Truth Social, analysts say,” Axios reports.

“Researchers from JPMorgan show that for the most part, his social media posts are noise, with very little ability to move the market.”

Filed Under: Financial Markets, White House

Jamie Dimon Says Markets Underestimate Risks

July 21, 2026 at 10:38 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating the risks facing the global economy and that he wouldn’t buy either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at their current prices,” CNBC reports.

Filed Under: Financial Markets

Wall Street’s New Obsession Is Reading Washington

July 10, 2026 at 9:08 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “As investors hunt for the Trump administration’s next winner, they’re increasingly trying to anticipate which industries and companies will benefit from White House policy — from tariffs and export controls to procurement, subsidies and even presidential attention itself.”

“That has changed how investors think about risk. Beyond earnings and cash flow, they’re weighing which CEOs have the White House’s ear, whether a presidential announcement could transform a company’s prospects overnight, or whether a public falling-out could wipe out billions in market value.”

Filed Under: Financial Markets

Fed Officials Were Split On Interest Rates

July 8, 2026 at 3:22 pm ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Federal Reserve officials were split last month about the future of interest rates, with policymakers entertaining scenarios in either direction,” CNBC reports.

Filed Under: Financial Markets

Trump Rings Market Opening Bell at White House

July 6, 2026 at 9:35 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump on Monday morning joined the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq in ringing the opening bell from the White House Oval Office for the first time ever,” CNBC reports.

“The event marking the launch of ‘Trump Accounts,’ the administration’s new tax-advantaged investment vehicles for U.S. kids, is also being attended by a raft of CEOs who are supporting the new accounts, including Dell chief Michael Dell and Visa CEO Ryan McInerney.”

Filed Under: Financial Markets, White House

Internal Report Warns About the Dangers of an AI Bubble

July 6, 2026 at 8:19 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A draft report inside the Treasury Department is set to warn of the risks posed by the artificial intelligence market, likening key aspects of it to the dotcom bubble that upended the U.S. economy when it burst in the early 2000s,” NOTUS reports.

“The document, the existence and contents of which have not been previously reported but was obtained by NOTUS, is a significant departure from the Trump administration’s public tone, which has focused on encouraging unrelenting investment to unlock exponential growth.”

Filed Under: Financial Markets, Technology

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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