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Watergate Had a ‘Road Map’ But Mueller Can’t Read It

September 14, 2018 at 12:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Lawfare: “According to countless media accounts and President Trump’s own lawyers, Special Counsel Robert Mueller is writing some kind of report on allegations of presidential obstruction of justice. Exactly what sort of report this may be is unclear. But to the extent that Mueller is contemplating a referral to Congress of possible impeachment material, he has two historical models of such documents to draw on. One, the so-called Starr Report, is famous and publicly available. The other is a document most people have never heard of: the “Road Map” that Watergate Special Prosecutor Leon Jaworski sent to Congress in 1974 and that informed its impeachment proceedings, which were already underway.”

“The Road Map was very different from the Starr Report. Where Starr wrote a lengthy narrative, the Road Map was reportedly spare. Where Starr evaluated the legal relevance of the evidence he referred, the Road Map apparently contained no analysis and drew no conclusions. And where the Starr Report was in bookstores worldwide and today is just a Google search away, the Road Map is largely forgotten.”

“There’s a reason for that: The Road Map remains under seal at the National Archives. Kenneth Starr couldn’t read it. You can’t read it. And, remarkably for a document that may be the best model available for his current project, Mueller can’t read it either.”

Filed Under: Political History

Democrats Remember When Impeachment Backfired

September 10, 2018 at 6:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “A majority of Democratic voters want President Donald Trump impeached, and, in at least one poll, a plurality of all Americans want the impeachment process to begin. And, regardless of their own opinion on the matter, nearly three out of four voters expect that Democrats will move to impeach Trump if they take back the House this fall.”

“But, of course, Democratic leaders want nothing to do with this conversation, even as Trump and his allies frantically try to bait them into it.”

“Each party’s posture is understandable when you consider the earth-shaking upheaval that ensued the last time a full-fledged impeachment drive was launched on the eve of an election.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Political History

Echoes of Watergate as Trump Is Under Siege

September 8, 2018 at 9:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “The White House seethes with intrigue and backstabbing as aides hunt for the anonymous Deep (state) Throat among them. A president feels besieged by tormentors — Bob Woodward is driving him crazy — so he tends his version of an enemies list, wondering aloud if he should rid himself of his attorney general or the special prosecutor or both.”

“For months, the Trump administration and its scandals have carried whiffs of Watergate and drawn comparisons to the characters and crimes of the Nixon era. But this week, history did not just repeat itself, it climbed out of the dustbin and returned in the flesh.”

Filed Under: Political History


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Our Culture Wars Began at 1968 Democratic Convention

August 28, 2018 at 10:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Leonard Steinhorn: “Fifty years ago today, one of the fiercest battles of the 1960s took place not in the jungles of Vietnam, but on the streets of Chicago.”

“On Day 3 of the 1968 Democratic National Convention, police clashed violently with antiwar demonstrators before a rapt television audience of 90 million Americans. The Battle of Michigan Avenue, as the episode came to be known, in many ways prefigured the culture wars that dominate American politics today.”

Filed Under: Political History

Quote of the Day

August 24, 2018 at 6:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“We are in a sad place in our country’s history.”

— Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), quoted by Politico.

Filed Under: Political History

Did Nixon Beat His Wife?

August 23, 2018 at 12:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Elon Green: “For years, journalists and historians have mostly danced around the reports, gently poking and prodding. Nixon chroniclers tend either to acknowledge that the reports exist without assessing their reliability, or they ignore them altogether. A conspicuous absence of specifics in the public record — dates, locations, and documentation — may be to blame for this, and, especially when writing about allegations of abuse, one must write with care and caution.”

“What can be said with confidence is the truth of the matter has not been been satisfactorily resolved. With the benefit of distance and perspective, it’s worth giving the alleged incidents a second look and considering their sources more closely, because allegations of abuse are taken more seriously today than they were a half-century ago — or even more recently, when this history was being written.”

Filed Under: Political History Tagged With: Pat Nixon, Richard Nixon

The Similarities with Nixon Grow

August 21, 2018 at 9:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Bob Bauer: “How the case develops from here is not possible to judge at this time, but the Cohen campaign finance plea resonates unmistakably with the special counsel investigation, which also concerns what a candidate is prepared to do to win an election and then cover his tracks. The criminal information cites the involvement of unnamed members of the Trump campaign; the campaign, like the candidate, is now clearly in separate legal jeopardy.”

”The similarities between Trump’s problems and those of Richard Nixon continue to grow. In the short term, should there be any doubt about Trump’s unwillingness to sit for an interview with prosecutors, this seems yet another reason why he had no intention to do so. His lawyers will now busily attack Cohen, as they have already begun to do, but they don’t know what he’s told prosecutors or what evidence he has supplied to back up his claims. Any interview with the president would touch on these issues, among others—and the president whose lawyer has proclaimed that ‘truth is not truth’ and who repeatedly rails about ‘perjury traps’ is surely not able to take his chances with his own version of the Daniels and McDougal tales.”

“This is another possibility raised by the Cohen plea. It may not matter whether the president agrees to testify. Others seem prepared to bear that burden. As Nixon found when one of his lawyers also became a witness for the government, this can be the beginning of very hard times.”

Filed Under: Political History, White House

The Myth of Bipartisan Cooperation During Watergate

August 18, 2018 at 4:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With new parallels between the Russia investigation and Watergate popping up almost every week — the latest being White House counsel Donald McGahn cooperating with the special counsel — it’s important to remember what actually happened during Watergate.

One way I’ve done this is by listening to the fantastic Slowburn podcast. The first season looked at what it was like to live through Watergate and reminded us that some things that seemed important at the time are now mostly forgotten. (The second season, on the Clinton impeachment, is equally fascinating.)

Another good reminder was a recent New York Times op-ed by Michael Conway and Jon Marshall which argued that our memories of bipartisan cooperation during the Watergate scandal are actually very wrong.

In fact, Republicans worked hard to defend Richard Nixon, and much like they do today with Trump, frequently revised their statements in support of him when new facts emerged. Most Republicans — and many conservative Democrats — opposed impeachment well into the summer of 1974, more than a year after White House counsel John Dean testified against the president.

House Minority Leader Gerald Ford (R-MI), who later succeeded Nixon as president, even called the investigation a “political witch hunt.”

As Conway and Marshall write:

After it was revealed in July 1973 that Mr. Nixon had secretly taped conversations, Mr. Ford said he found nothing wrong with the president’s practices. Republican Senator John Tower of Texas later warned Congress not to get caught up in “the hysteria of Watergate.”

Most congressional Republicans rallied around Mr. Nixon when the White House released edited transcripts of those tapes in April 1974 that showed Mr. Nixon scheming with his aides. As the House Judiciary Committee began debating possible impeachment in July, Representative Delbert Latta of Ohio said the evidence failed to prove Mr. Nixon’s direct involvement in Watergate.

It wasn’t until the “smoking gun” tape was released — just a few days before Nixon resigned — that Republicans began to finally turn against the president.

But that tape, which proved Nixon had ordered his staff to cover-up the Watergate crimes, wasn’t really the smoking gun we remember today. Ever since Dean had testified a year earlier, there was more than enough solid proof that Nixon was guilty of both abuse of power and obstruction of justice. The tape was the tipping point, however, because it proved to many Republicans that the president had lied.

Until those last few weeks, most Republicans in Congress still defended Nixon.

This doesn’t prove that today’s Republicans will eventually turn on Trump. But it does suggest that loyalty to a president of one’s own party isn’t guaranteed. Events matter and it takes just one to sometimes change the entire politics of the situation.

There’s still a lot we don’t know about Donald Trump, his campaign’s involvement with Russia and his attempts to stop the investigation. But like during Watergate, there’s already plenty of evidence that the president obstructed justice and abused the power of his office. The equivalent “smoking gun” might be Trump’s prior knowledge of the Trump Tower meeting with a Russian agent. Or it might be proof that Trump is deeply in debt to Russian oligarchs or committed money laundering crimes. Or it might be something else entirely.

The biggest difference, of course, between Watergate and now is that Republicans currently control both houses of Congress. During Watergate, it was Democrats who held both chambers.

That’s what makes the 2018 midterm elections so important. If Democrats win control of either house, they can use their subpoena power to push the investigation deeper. What they find — and what they make public — might go a long way to changing minds.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Fox News Host Recalls Defeating ‘Communist Japan’

August 16, 2018 at 10:38 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ainsley Earhardt proudly recalled on Fox & Friends that the U.S. defeated “communist Japan” in World War II while trying to defend America’s greatness.

Said Earhardt: “We defeated communist Japan… We’re the most generous country in all of the world. Yes, we have our faults, but because of this country, this world is definitely a better place. We are great.”

Filed Under: Political History

Presidential Results by Media Market

August 13, 2018 at 11:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

DailyKos has compiled a fantastic spreadsheet of presidential election results by media market over the last 10 elections.

“What’s very interesting about these presidential/media market numbers is that, unlike congressional districts or legislative districts, media market boundaries don’t change every decade… Media market boundaries follow county lines and stay stationary, so you can track those numbers longitudinally and watch how different parts of the country evolve politically, at a more detailed level than states but at a less granular level than individual counties.”

Filed Under: Political History

What Nixon’s Approval Rate Might Tell Us About Today

August 12, 2018 at 2:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll, shares this chart of President Richard Nixon’s approval rate over the course of his shortened presidency:

Some quick observations:

  • Nixon was pretty popular through the first term, nearly always over 50% approval.
  • The most striking fact — at least when looking with today’s perspective — is that his approval among Democrats was fairly strong, almost always in the 40s.
  • Republican approval averaged in the 80s throughout his first term.

Had Nixon left office at the start of his second term, he would have gone out with a strikingly high 67% approval rate. But over the next nine months Nixon experienced one of the sharpest drops in presidential approval in history. Franklin finds his approval plummeted roughly four percent points per month from January 1973 to October 1973, from 67% to 30%.

Although Nixon’s approval rate declined a little more during 1974 until his resignation in August, nearly all of the decline took place in 1973 during a stream of damaging news stories about the Watergate burglary. By the time of the Saturday Night Massacre on October 20, 1973, Nixon’s approval had already reached a “steady state” low point and barely budged again until he left office.

Almost nothing during Nixon’s remaining months — transcripts from White House tapes and the start of impeachment proceedings — moved his overall approval ratings. His support among Republicans was about 54%, independents at 25% and Democrats at 15%.

Only the information made public during those nine months of 1973 moved his approval rate. After that, nothing else seemed to matter. Everyone who could be persuaded had been persuaded.

A key takeaway: It was during the Senate Watergate hearings, in which the evidence was formally laid out, when Nixon lost most Americans. The equivalent has not yet happened in the Mueller investigation. When the Mueller report is finally released (and perhaps trials begin for those indicted) that may be the time when Trump begins to bleed support from his own party.

Another key point: Nixon still had the approval of roughly half of Republicans at the bitter end.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Pence Once Made Moral Case for Removing a President

August 6, 2018 at 6:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Vice President Mike Pence “once argued the president of the United States should be held to the highest moral standards to determine whether he should resign or be removed from office,” CNN reports.

“Pence made the argument in two columns in the late 1990s, where he wrote that then-President Bill Clinton’s admission of an affair with a White House intern and prior lies to the public about the matter, possibly under oath, meant Clinton should be removed from office.”

“Yet Pence also moved beyond the specifics of the Clinton case: He made a far-reaching argument about the importance of morality and integrity to the office of the presidency.”

Filed Under: Political History Tagged With: Mike Pence

The American Dream Died In 2008

August 5, 2018 at 11:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Frank Rich: “The mood in America is arguably as dark as it has ever been in the modern era. The birthrate is at a record low, and the suicide rate is at a 30-year high; mass shootings and opioid overdoses are ubiquitous. In the aftermath of 9/11, the initial shock and horror soon gave way to a semblance of national unity in support of a president whose electoral legitimacy had been bitterly contested only a year earlier. Today’s America is instead marked by fear and despair more akin to what followed the crash of 1929, when unprecedented millions of Americans lost their jobs and homes after the implosion of businesses ranging in scale from big banks to family farms.”

“It’s not hard to pinpoint the dawn of this deep gloom: It arrived in September 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers kicked off the Great Recession that proved to be a more lasting existential threat to America than the terrorist attack of seven Septembers earlier. The shadow it would cast is so dark that a decade later, even our current run of ostensible prosperity and peace does not mitigate the one conviction that still unites all Americans: Everything in the country is broken.”

Filed Under: Political History

Bonus Quote of the Day

August 5, 2018 at 2:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“This has never happened before. We’ve had great presidents; we’ve had terrible presidents, Republicans and Democrats; but we’ve never had anything like this — where we have a president who is incapable of telling the truth.”

— Former White House press secretary Joe Lockhart, in an interview on CNN.

Filed Under: Political History

Historian Says Trump Using ‘Stalinist’ Tactics

August 3, 2018 at 11:11 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Presidential historian Jon Meacham lashed out at President Trump for calling the media an “enemy of the people,” saying it’s a “totalitarian” strategy, The Hill reports.

Said Meacham: “It’s an elective kind of base management. It’s pernicious, it’s dangerous — and this is not media elite people defending media elite people.”

He added: “It’s simply a Stalinist phrase, for God’s sake. It comes out of totalitarian regimes to declare that a free press is the enemy of the people.”

Filed Under: Political History, White House

Time to Retire ‘Red States’ and ‘Blue States’

August 2, 2018 at 1:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Robert Kuttner: “Even states that are heavily Republican have plenty of Democratic voters, not to mention independents and swing voters. So there is no such thing as a ‘red’ state. It’s better and more accurate (and conducive to better understanding) to use terms like ‘Republican-leaning or ‘heavily Democratic.'”

“The current color-coding only dates to the 2000 election. Before 2000, networks did use color-coded maps, but varied them and were more likely to use red for Democrat, blue for Republican. In 2000, Tim Russert began coding Democrats as blue, supposedly to avoid any taint that Democrats were Reds.”

“Whatever the origin of the practice, it’s dumb, sloppy shorthand, with real negative effects. If the mainstream press wants to avoid being a target for Donald Trump’s ‘enemy of the people’ slurs, it can start by cleaning up its own act.”

Filed Under: Political History

Why Don’t U.S. Officials Resign in Protest?

July 23, 2018 at 3:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

In the aftermath of President Trump’s disastrous news conference with Vladimir Putin — some would say treasonous — no Trump administration officials have tendered their resignations to protest the president’s blanket dismissal of U.S. intelligence findings that Russia interfered with U.S. elections.

It’s remarkable considering the severity of the offense.

On the latest episode of Political Wire Conversations, Chris Riback asked former NATO Ambassador Nicholas Burns a bonus question for his newsletter subscribers why American public officials don’t resign more often:

What an extraordinary question. We don’t have a tradition of it. In other countries, Britain is one, there is a tradition when public officials disagree on an issue of great consequence. Perhaps even ethical and moral consequence, that they resign. We don’t appear to have that tradition. Our tradition is you serve. You serve at the pleasure of the president, and the Executive branch. You serve because the public good is enhanced by your service, even if you disagree, you still must serve. That’s more the tradition, but they’re exceptions.

A friend of mine, Brady Kiesling, American Foreign Service Officer, resigned in opposition to the Iraq war in 2003. Wrote a book about it, was very vocal about it. I thought he had every right to do that. And it’s a struggle for people inside government when you contest an idea, privately, behind the scenes in government. And when you end up on the losing side, you’re sometimes asked to go out and support it publicly. That’s the nature of public service.

So your question leads to this fine line. What am I willing to do in service to my country? And what am I not willing to do? And I think everybody goes into politics, or public service, at any level, state, city-state, federal, international, has to have that question firmly in mind. Are there things that I’m not willing to do for the government? Of course there are, and so you’ve always got to keep that in mind.

The complete inaction of Trump administration officials over the last week would suggest that most have never even really thought about it.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Kavanaugh Said Watergate Tapes Decision May Have Been Wrong

July 22, 2018 at 12:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh suggested several years ago that the unanimous high court ruling in 1974 that forced President Richard Nixon to turn over the Watergate tapes, leading to the end of his presidency, may have been wrongly decided,” the AP reports.

“Kavanaugh was taking part in a roundtable discussion with other lawyers when he said at three different points that the decision in U.S. v. Nixon, which marked limits on a president’s ability to withhold information needed for a criminal prosecution, may have come out the wrong way.”

Filed Under: Political History

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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