Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “In the 2024 election, just 16 congressional districts voted differently for president and for U.S. House. Democratic House candidates carried 13 Donald Trump-won districts, and Republican House candidates carried 3 Kamala Harris-won districts.”

“Redistricting, however, has altered the picture and expanded the number of crossover districts. Based on the maps in place now, there are 24 crossover districts: 16 Trump-district Democrats and 8 Harris-district Republicans.”

“Many of these newly-created seats are designed to flip to the party that won the district for president. If 2026 is like 2018, Democrats may have a more lopsided number of crossover districts than they did in 2024.”

“Further redistricting moves in states like Florida, Maryland, New York, and Virginia could expand the number of crossover seats.”

“The Supreme Court on Wednesday allowed California to use a new voter-approved congressional map that is favorable to Democrats in this year’s elections, rejecting a last-ditch plea from state Republicans and the Trump administration,” the AP reports.

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) faces a dilemma, the Washington Post reports.

“Should she play things cautiously when it comes to redistricting, and pursue a strategy that would almost certainly give her party three more safe seats in Congress? Or should she gamble on a plan that could give Democrats four more seats — but only if all goes well, and that might be disastrous for her party if it does not?”

“A number of Virginia Democrats are advocating the latter approach, which would redraw the state’s congressional map into 10 competitive districts that favor Democrats and one district guaranteed to go Republican. If they were having a good year, Democrats would probably take all 10 competitive districts; but a good year for Republicans could see the GOP winning several of the seats.”

A Virginia judge issued an injunction blocking Democrats from moving forward with redrawing the state’s congressional map before the 2026 midterms.

Democrats hoped to pick up as many as four seats in Virginia but that plan is now on hold as the legal process plays out.

Punchbowl News: “A New York judge ruled Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ (R-NY) district is unconstitutional and ordered the redistricting commission to redraw the map by Feb. 6.”

“This is a big win for Democrats who sued to try to reopen the redistricting process in the Empire State. But the real test will be whether this ruling holds up on appeal, which Republicans are sure to attempt.”

The Maryland Redistricting Advisory Commission appointed by Gov. Wes Moore has approved a proposed map that would give Democrats all eight of the state’s congressional seats, Punchbowl News reports.

The concept map will now be sent to the legislature for approval. State Senate President Bill Ferguson, who is on the commission, voted no and is opposed to redistricting.

“The Virginia state Senate on Friday approved a constitutional amendment that paves the way for a special election in which voters will decide whether to approve congressional maps favoring Democrats ahead of the midterms,” NOTUS reports.

“If voters approve the referendum, Democrats could end up with lines that could net their party up to four seats, though the exact makeup of the final map is still unclear.”

NBC News: Virginia lawmakers pass redistricting amendment, sending it to voters for approval.

“In a major victory for Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic Party, a federal court in Los Angeles ruled Wednesday that California can use its newly configured congressional district boundaries for the 2026 midterm elections, increasing Democrats’ odds of winning five additional U.S. House seats and seizing control of the chamber,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Virginia Democrats are launching their last big campaign in the redistricting wars this week — but big questions loom about whether they can agree on how to maximize benefits to their party and whether they can convince voters to support their power grab,” Politico reports.

New York Times: “As the clock runs out and primary elections approach in the spring, leaders on both sides are looking to squeeze out any advantage and pressuring reluctant lawmakers who worry that maximalist gerrymandering could threaten their seats, hurt their party strategically or erode principles of democratic representation.”

“So far, Republicans have picked up roughly nine seats across the country and Democrats have flipped about six, but legal challenges or a wave election could alter the math.”

“Hovering over all the cartographic scribbling is a pending Supreme Court decision that could blow up the political map and give Republicans a major advantage.”

“Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday called a special legislative session on mid-decade redistricting that would take place in late April, a preemptive move coming amid state GOP tensions and national debates on the issue,” Politico reports.

“Florida could be the crown jewel for Republicans’ national redistricting ambitions. Some backers believe the state could yield three to five additional GOP House seats ahead of the 2026 midterms — a big enough number to possibly swing control of the House.”

“During legislative sessions in Frankfort, no bill or idea is ever 100% dead,” the Lexington Herald-Leader reports.

“But, according to a Republican legislative leader who has spoken with White House representatives, the prospect of gerrymandering Kentucky’s congressional map to draw out its only Democrat in Washington is not going anywhere.”

Politico: “In Utah, Republicans are attempting to repeal an anti-gerrymandering measure that would allow them to redraw a new map ahead of the 2028 cycle. If they succeed, the GOP-controlled legislature will be poised to again redraw favorably after the 2030 census — when Utah, the country’s fastest-growing state, will likely be apportioned an additional seat.”

“That means, should Republicans make good on their effort, the state could have different maps in 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2032 — four times in an eight-year span, a near-unprecedented streak.”

The Economist: “One could argue that Republican state senators in Indiana were just being smart politicians earlier this month when they rejected a bill to redraw their state’s congressional districts to benefit their party. Polls showed more of their constituents opposed the measure than supported it.”

“Yet these state senators set a heartening example of courage in public life for a country in need of one. That they had the people and common sense on their side does not diminish their demonstration of character; instead, it supplies a gauge of just how debased American politics have otherwise become.”

“Republicans are frantically searching for more ways to keep the House next Congress after Indiana legislators decided not to redraw their state’s congressional districts,” Semafor reports.

“The decision could deter parallel pushes in other states.”

CNN: “Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.”

Russell Berman: “Over the past few days, I’ve asked both Republicans and Democrats here to explain why Indiana has become the new hotbed of GOP resistance to Trump…”

“I received several answers. Most, however, said that the push for mid-decade redistricting simply ran afoul of the small-c conservatism on which many Indiana Republican legislators still pride themselves… Republicans told me that state Senate opponents of redrawing the maps tended to be more institutionalist than MAGA, echoing a divide that still crops up among the party’s lawmakers in Washington.”