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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

New York Democrats Move to Join Redistricting Battle

June 2, 2026 · 6:52 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “Democrats have finalized their plans for a state constitutional amendment to change New York’s redistricting process — joining a national battle over drawing congressional boundaries.”

“The changes would enable Democrats to shift as many as four Republican-held House seats to their column in the 26-member delegation — giving the party a slight edge in a state with several swing districts.”

Redistricting

How California Redistricting Shrunk the Competitive Map

June 1, 2026 · 8:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Back in 2010, California created something many good government advocates had encouraged and many political incumbents feared: a nonpartisan redistricting commission. The people appointed to the panel were charged with drawing political maps in a way that did not favor one party over the other…”

“Then, last year, partisan redistricting wars ignited across the country. After Texas legislators redrew their state’s congressional districts to favor Republicans, Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed for voters to approve a plan that would allow California Democrats to do the same. They did, by a wide margin.”

“As a result, there are just four competitive congressional districts in the state and just four seats considered safe for Republicans. The rest of the state’s 52 members of Congress are all but certain to be Democrats.”

Redistricting

Louisiana Lawmakers Pass New Map

May 29, 2026 · 2:18 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Louisiana lawmakers passed a new congressional map Friday designed to pick up a Republican seat while leaving the state with just one of its two majority-Black House districts represented by Democrats,” CBS News reports. 

“Republican Gov. Jeff Landry is expected to sign the new map into law. Approval of the new House map came a month after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the state’s current map as an illegal racial gerrymander, weakening the landmark 1965 federal Voting Rights Act.”

New York Times: “The new map is Louisiana’s response to the court’s ruling, which rejected its previous congressional map as an illegal racial gerrymander. After delaying the state’s U.S. House primaries and negotiating for weeks, the Republican-controlled Legislature settled on redrawing the district at the center of the ruling in a way that reduces the number of Black voters who live in it and hands Republicans a structural advantage ahead of the November midterms.”

Redistricting

Republicans to Finish Redistricting War 10 seats Ahead

May 28, 2026 · 7:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The coast-to-coast battle to gain an edge in November’s elections through partisan gerrymandering is racing to its conclusion – with Republicans poised to finish with as many as 10 seats ahead of Democrats through redistricting alone,” CNN reports. 

Redistricting

Judge Allows Florida House Map 

May 27, 2026 · 5:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A judge in Florida declined to temporarily block the state’s aggressive new congressional map on Tuesday, allowing it to remain as a lawsuit challenging it moves forward,” the New York Times reports.

“The map could give Republicans four additional seats as they try to maintain control of Congress in the November midterm elections.”

Axios: Florida congressional map survives first court test.

Redistricting

South Carolina Republicans Defy Trump Again

May 26, 2026 · 4:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Guardian: “Republican lawmakers in South Carolina have defied Donald Trump and rejected a breakneck bid to redraw the state’s congressional districts ahead of November’s US midterm elections.”

“In a 26-18 vote, state senators rejected mid-decade redistricting in a special session of the legislature, ending hope in Washington to split up congressman Jim Clyburn’s district and add to the list of gerrymandered gains for Republicans.”

Redistricting

Court Rejects Alabama House Map

May 26, 2026 · 10:13 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “A panel of federal judges on Tuesday rejected Alabama’s effort to use a new voting map for the November midterm elections, saying that the districts discriminated against Black people and could not be used so shortly before a vote.”

“The state is likely to appeal the decision. Gov. Kay Ivey, a Republican, has already set special primaries in August in four House districts that would be affected by a new congressional map.”

“The ruling further confuses the electoral landscape across the South, as Republican-led legislatures have raced to implement new district lines after the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act of 1965. It also demonstrates how the ruling from the nation’s highest court has further muddled how lower courts interpret the landmark civil rights law.”

Redistricting

How Extreme Gerrymandering Is Transforming Politics

May 25, 2026 · 8:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The nationwide redistricting battle that erupted last year has evolved into a forever war,” the Washington Post reports.

“Politicians, no longer content to leave elections to chance, are working with increased precision to choose their voters, with plans to recalibrate as often as every two years…”

“Extreme gerrymanders could soon be even more extreme. California Democrats could eliminate every Republican in the state’s House delegation, giving them a 52-0 map. Republicans could get rid of nearly every Democrat in Texas.”

Redistricting

Democrats Vow Redistricting Counterpunch

May 24, 2026 · 8:43 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats are poised to finish several seats behind Republicans in 2026 in the nationwide race to redraw maps for the U.S. House. They can catch up in 2028, but only if they overcome a series of redistricting hurdles that the GOP does not face,” the AP reports.

“That’s because Democrats, in many states, can draw partisan political lines only if they evade constraints — some self-imposed — on their ability to counterpunch.”

Redistricting

Maryland Democrats Look Set to Redistrict in 2028

May 22, 2026 · 4:49 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “After months of disagreement, Maryland Democrats appear to be closer than ever to eliminating the state’s lone Republican-held congressional district in time for the 2028 cycle.”

“Bill Ferguson, the leader of the Maryland Senate and the face of Democratic opposition to redrawing maps this year, said in an interview with a local news outlet on Friday that the Supreme Court’s decision on the Voting Rights Act, which led to a scramble among Republican-led legislatures across the South to dismantle or dilute majority-Black, Democratic-controlled districts, forced him to change his calculus.”

Redistricting

How Democrats Can Fight the New GOP Gerrymanders

May 20, 2026 · 2:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Downballot: “Following the Supreme Court’s evisceration of the Voting Rights Act, Republican-run states are rushing headlong to dismantle congressional districts that had been drawn to protect the rights of Black and Latino voters.”

“But Democrats could fight back by targeting at least 21 GOP districts in nine different states in time for the 2028 elections—and they can do so without disrespecting the VRA.”

Redistricting

Mike Johnson Predicts GOP Will Net 7-8 House Seats

May 18, 2026 · 6:20 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Speaker Mike Johnson told top donors in D.C. that he believes Republicans will net seven to eight seats from mid-decade redistricting, Punchbowl News reports.

Redistricting

Redistricting Wars Shift to South Carolina

May 18, 2026 · 6:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

“An effort to reshape South Carolina’s congressional districts will get its first full airing Monday in the state House, as lawmakers launch a lengthy and potentially testy discussion on whether to accede to President Donald Trump’s desires for a U.S. House map that could yield a clean sweep for Republicans,” the AP reports.

Redistricting

Justices Won’t Restore Virginia’s Gerrymander

May 15, 2026 · 6:50 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Supreme Court on Friday rejected Virginia’s bid to restore a congressional map that would have given Democrats a chance to pick up four seats in the closely divided House of Representatives,” the AP reports.

“The court’s order is the latest twist in the nation’s mid-decade redistricting competition.”

Judiciary, Redistricting

Demonstrations to Sweep the South Over Redistricting

May 15, 2026 · 2:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Axios: “A wave of voting rights battles and GOP redistricting fights is triggering a coordinated response across the South, with organizers preparing a ‘Summer of Action’ campaign with marches that start this weekend.”

“Organizers say the fight over congressional maps, voting access and political representation is accelerating in real time as states redraw political power ahead of November’s midterms and the 2028 general election.”

Redistricting

Why the Redistricting Wars Will Continue

May 15, 2026 · 9:52 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “Republican and Democratic voters are all in on an ends-justify-means approach to map redraws, according to the latest Politico Poll conducted by Public First. With South Carolina GOP Gov. Henry McMaster expected to announce a special session today for legislators to push forward a 7-0 gerrymander to draw Democrats out, the fresh polling shows voters favor a maximalist approach.”

“According to the poll, both parties say gerrymandering is influential or decisive — and back it to counter the other. For Democratic voters, 63 percent either support or strongly support an effort to neutralize Republican gains. Only 8 percent oppose or strongly oppose.”

“For Republican voters, 54 percent either support or strongly support an effort to match or neutralize Democratic gains. Roughly 10 percent oppose or strongly oppose such a move.”

Redistricting

You Can’t Gerrymander a Bad Approval Rating

May 15, 2026 · 7:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

G. Elliot Morris: “Republicans across half a dozen states spent the last year passing new congressional gerrymanders to give themselves an unfair advantage over Democrats in this November’s midterm elections. After the Supreme Court blew up Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais two weeks ago, GOP legislatures in Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, and elsewhere have moved to cut even more Democratic seats from the map. Democrats could end up needing to win the popular vote in the House by 4 points or more in order to win the majority of seats.”

“This is a huge boon to a party that, just three weeks ago, was staring down the barrel of a virtually assured loss of the House and likely loss of the Senate, too.”

“And yet, it doesn’t change the big picture of how Americans feel about the president today.”

Redistricting

A Third of Congressional Black Caucus Could Lose Seats

May 15, 2026 · 6:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Almost a third of the membership of the Congressional Black Caucus — 19 of its 62 members — are at risk of losing their seats through the 2028 election cycle as Republicans in southern states where they control the legislature move swiftly to redraw congressional maps less than two weeks after the Supreme Court dealt a blow to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act,” ABC News reports.

Redistricting

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

More about Taegan Goddard →

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