“Virginia Democrats are launching their last big campaign in the redistricting wars this week — but big questions loom about whether they can agree on how to maximize benefits to their party and whether they can convince voters to support their power grab,” Politico reports.

New York Times: “As the clock runs out and primary elections approach in the spring, leaders on both sides are looking to squeeze out any advantage and pressuring reluctant lawmakers who worry that maximalist gerrymandering could threaten their seats, hurt their party strategically or erode principles of democratic representation.”

“So far, Republicans have picked up roughly nine seats across the country and Democrats have flipped about six, but legal challenges or a wave election could alter the math.”

“Hovering over all the cartographic scribbling is a pending Supreme Court decision that could blow up the political map and give Republicans a major advantage.”

“Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday called a special legislative session on mid-decade redistricting that would take place in late April, a preemptive move coming amid state GOP tensions and national debates on the issue,” Politico reports.

“Florida could be the crown jewel for Republicans’ national redistricting ambitions. Some backers believe the state could yield three to five additional GOP House seats ahead of the 2026 midterms — a big enough number to possibly swing control of the House.”

“During legislative sessions in Frankfort, no bill or idea is ever 100% dead,” the Lexington Herald-Leader reports.

“But, according to a Republican legislative leader who has spoken with White House representatives, the prospect of gerrymandering Kentucky’s congressional map to draw out its only Democrat in Washington is not going anywhere.”

Politico: “In Utah, Republicans are attempting to repeal an anti-gerrymandering measure that would allow them to redraw a new map ahead of the 2028 cycle. If they succeed, the GOP-controlled legislature will be poised to again redraw favorably after the 2030 census — when Utah, the country’s fastest-growing state, will likely be apportioned an additional seat.”

“That means, should Republicans make good on their effort, the state could have different maps in 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2032 — four times in an eight-year span, a near-unprecedented streak.”

The Economist: “One could argue that Republican state senators in Indiana were just being smart politicians earlier this month when they rejected a bill to redraw their state’s congressional districts to benefit their party. Polls showed more of their constituents opposed the measure than supported it.”

“Yet these state senators set a heartening example of courage in public life for a country in need of one. That they had the people and common sense on their side does not diminish their demonstration of character; instead, it supplies a gauge of just how debased American politics have otherwise become.”

“Republicans are frantically searching for more ways to keep the House next Congress after Indiana legislators decided not to redraw their state’s congressional districts,” Semafor reports.

“The decision could deter parallel pushes in other states.”

CNN: “Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.”

Russell Berman: “Over the past few days, I’ve asked both Republicans and Democrats here to explain why Indiana has become the new hotbed of GOP resistance to Trump…”

“I received several answers. Most, however, said that the push for mid-decade redistricting simply ran afoul of the small-c conservatism on which many Indiana Republican legislators still pride themselves… Republicans told me that state Senate opponents of redrawing the maps tended to be more institutionalist than MAGA, echoing a divide that still crops up among the party’s lawmakers in Washington.” 

Jonathan Chait: “In rejecting yesterday a redistricting plan backed by President Donald Trump, Indiana’s Republican-controlled senate did not merely deny Republicans two new U.S. House seats in next year’s midterm elections. They also engaged in a mass revolt against the president. The stakes of their defiance reach far beyond the midterms. This vote was possibly the most significant blow yet against the authoritarian ambitions that have defined Trump’s second term.”

“The significance of Indiana’s noncompliance lies not in the specifics of what was refused—attempts to gerrymander electoral maps are hardly unprecedented, even though a mid-decade battle violates norms—but in the act of refusal itself. Trump’s authoritarian project relies on the cultlike hold he has over his party.”

Playbook: “The White House is waking up this morning to some brutal headlines and questions about whether President Donald Trump’s power over the GOP is waning after Indiana state lawmakers summarily rejected his redistricting push in the Hoosier State.”

“The president’s political team long set up what turned into the failed, blowout of a 19-31 vote against his proposed map that would have gerrymandered two more safe red seats as a loyalty test. The answer they got is not the one they wanted. The results imperil the party’s chances of holding control of Congress next November.”

Punchbowl News: “At this point, Trump’s redistricting war is a wash at best. Right now, Republicans may net two or three seats, but even that outcome is uncertain.”

“A couple of key states — Florida and Virginia — won’t draw new maps until next year. And that’s only if state legislators in both states overcome some significant obstacles.”

“The Supreme Court also hasn’t ruled in a major Louisiana Voting Rights Act case, although the full ramifications of that decision may not be felt until 2028.”

“In a monumental rebuke of President Donald Trump’s wishes, Indiana’s supermajority Republican state legislature became the first to formally reject his push for mid-decade redistricting,” the Indianapolis Star reports.

“The Senate’s 19-31 vote caps months of anticipation and pressure from the White House and its allies, placing Indiana at the center of national intrigue and ire.”

“A congressional redistricting proposal that has split Indiana’s Senate Republicans advanced to its final stage Wednesday after lawmakers quickly dispatched three Democratic amendments and positioned the high-stakes bill for a decisive vote on Thursday,” the Indiana Capital Chronicle reports.

“But it remains unclear whether the Senate GOP caucus has enough support to pass the measure.”

Playbook notes President Trump applied pressure his own special way — with an epic 414-word Truth Social post demanding a GOP gerrymander, issuing primary threats and calling Senate President Rodric Bray, a redistricting opponent, “either a bad guy, or a very stupid one!”

“When Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map over the summer, they aimed to flip five districts held by Democrats and were guided by the 2024 presidential election results, which showed voters moving to the right,” the New York Times reports.

“But winning all five of those seats under the new map is far from a lock for Republicans next November.”

“With Hispanic voters showing signs of souring on President Trump in special elections this year and concerns mounting over the cost of living, Democrats believe they could hold on to as many as three of the redrawn seats in Texas, two in the Rio Grande Valley and possibly a third centered in and around San Antonio. The party is also looking at flipping a Republican seat in the Valley, little changed in its partisan makeup by the new map, where a popular Tejano music star is running as a moderate Democrat.”

“Indiana’s redistricting bill passed the Senate’s elections committee, clearing its first hurdle in the chamber that has been reticent to take up the issue,” the Indianapolis Star reports.

“The bill now heads to the Senate floor, where the full chamber is poised to vote on it before the end of the week.”

“Indiana’s mid-decade redistricting bill has cleared its first chamber, passing the House by a 57-41 vote,” the Indianapolis Star reports.

“It’s a significant milestone for the new congressional map proposal, drawn in direct response to a request from President Donald Trump after months of pressure, both direct and indirect. A dozen Republicans joined with Democrats in voting against the proposal.”

“The map proposal now goes to the Indiana Senate, where its fate is far less certain.”