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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

Key Jeffries Ally Endorses Aggressive New Maps

May 14, 2026 · 7:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Rep. Greg Meeks (D-NY), who has close ties to Hakeem Jeffries, “endorsed carving up majority-minority districts to ensure Democratic redistricting gains ahead of the 2028 elections,” Politico reports.

Said Meeks: “I’m supportive of winning and being in the majority. I think we can do that. I’m supportive of preserving our Democrats in the South, which is important, and I think that we can win and do what we need to do in other districts.”

He added: “Trump changed the rules. I don’t like those rules, but we’re going to do what we have to do to win.”

Redistricting

Estimating the GOP’s Gains from Redistricting

May 14, 2026 · 1:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Although several states are still in flux, we may be nearing the end of 2026’s redistricting saga.”

“As tempting as it may be to do so, it won’t be possible to do a precise accounting of redistricting’s effects until after the November election.”

“Assuming Republicans successfully add an extra seat apiece in Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, and that all of the current redraws remain in place, our best guess is a Republican gain in the high single digits from redistricting, with the potential for that to grow or shrink based on the actual results in several key races.”

Redistricting

Top Maryland Democrat Opens Door to Redistricting

May 14, 2026 · 12:54 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Maryland state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D), who blocked a push last year to redraw the state’s congressional map and eliminate the sole Republican seat, is “talking to allies about a path forward on possible redistricting,” NOTUS reports.

Redistricting

Mississippi Will No Longer Redistrict

May 14, 2026 · 12:52 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Mississippi will not redraw any of its electoral districts this month,” the Mississippi Free Press reports.

“Gov. Tate Reeves canceled a special legislative session to redistrict the state’s Supreme Court map after a federal appeals court determined that the state no longer needs to create a majority-Black district…”

“But the governor is urging the Mississippi Legislature to redraw its legislative, state supreme court and congressional lines before the 2027 elections, when state legislative seats will be on the ballot.”

Redistricting

GOP’s Redistricting War Is Decimating the Black Caucus

May 14, 2026 · 5:47 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “The Congressional Black Caucus’ membership swelled to an all-time high of 62 at the beginning of this Congress, up from only 13 in 1971. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is on the brink of becoming the first Black speaker of the House. There are now a record five Black senators.”

“But during the last two weeks, the conservative-dominated Supreme Court and Republican legislators across the South have blown this all up. GOP lawmakers across the region are targeting a half-dozen districts held by Black lawmakers this year for redistricting, and they’re promising to go even further next year.”

“This is an earth-shaking blow to the CBC, which has long been the most powerful voting bloc in Congress. Six or more Black Democrats could lose their seats this November due to the GOP redistricting blitz and the Supreme Court’s Callais decision. By 2028, a dozen Black Democrats could see their seats disappear.”

House of Representatives, Redistricting

Brian Kemp to Call Special Session on Redistricting

May 14, 2026 · 5:44 am ET · Leave a Comment

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is calling a special legislative session to redraw his state’s congressional lines ahead of the 2028 cycle, further advancing GOP gains after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, Politico reports.

Redistricting

Henry McMaster to Call Special Session on Redistricting

May 14, 2026 · 5:42 am ET · Leave a Comment

South Carolina GOP Gov. Henry McMaster is expected to reverse course and announce a special session on redistricting, teeing up the state legislature to pass a Republican gerrymander that would almost certainly cost Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn his seat in this year’s midterms, Politico reports.

Redistricting

House Democrats Prep for Years of Redistricting Hardball

May 14, 2026 · 5:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

“House Democrats say they tried playing nice. Now the gloves are off,” Politico reports.

“After spending more than a decade pushing for anti-gerrymandering measures and other good-government initiatives, Democratic lawmakers said this week they are gearing up to play political hardball in the wake of stunning court losses on redistricting — potentially for years to come.”

Redistricting

Florida Defends New Congressional Map

May 13, 2026 · 2:43 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Florida is pushing back against assertions that the state’s new congressional map was drawn to help Republicans, arguing in a new legal filing that other states such as Virginia and Illinois have engaged in much more blatant partisan gerrymandering,” Politico reports.

Redistricting

Inside the Democratic Battle Plan for Redistricting

May 13, 2026 · 7:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

CNN: “Jeffries and his allies have designed plans for the next two years to push Democratic-held states to set aside nonpartisan redistricting rules or gerrymander even more aggressively, with an eye toward producing a dozen or more new Democratic-held seats by November 2028, people familiar with the matter said. They’re eying seats from Oregon to New York in an effort that will cost hundreds of millions of dollars more in the next two years.”

“And they’re willing to put an uncomfortable spotlight on members of their own party to do it.”

Said Jeffries: “The days of Democrats unilaterally disarming are over, particularly given how high the stakes are.”

“Behind the scenes, the House minority leader’s allies are preparing a messaging push against any Democrats who stand in the way of gerrymandering, insisting that only ‘real Democrats’ are willing to fight.”

Redistricting

Missouri’s New Map Approved

May 13, 2026 · 6:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Missouri Supreme Court enacted the state’s Republican-drawn gerrymander on Tuesday, allowing it to likely take effect for the midterms by handing the GOP victories on two major redistricting cases,” Politico reports.

“The court ruled that the state’s new map — which Republicans in the Legislature drew to break up a Kansas City-area Democratic seat and shift the delegation from 6-2 Republican to a 7-1 advantage — did not violate the state constitution’s redistricting clause. The court also ruled against Democrats in the state who filed a petition seeking to force a referendum on the map, declaring the filing of the petition does not automatically suspend the new map.”

Redistricting

South Carolina Rebuffs Trump on Redistricting

May 12, 2026 · 6:35 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Hill: “South Carolina’s Senate on Monday declined to extend its legislative calendar to consider drawing new GOP-favored congressional lines, dealing a blow to President Trump before the midterms this fall.”

Redistricting

South Carolina GOP Blocks Plan to Eliminate Clyburn’s Seat

May 12, 2026 · 5:14 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Republicans in South Carolina’s legislature on Tuesday rejected a plan aimed at flipping the state’s lone Democratic-held House seat, which has long been occupied by one of the country’s most senior and influential Black leaders.”

“The decision was a victory — at least for now — for Rep. James E. Clyburn, the Democrat whose seat was at risk, and a setback for President Donald Trump. The president has persuaded Republicans in other states to redraw their congressional maps to boost the party’s chances of hanging on to its slim House majority.”

Redistricting

Supreme Court Allows Alabama to Use New Map

May 11, 2026 · 7:19 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Supreme Court on Monday cleared a path for Alabama to use a new voting map for the midterm elections, a victory for Republicans and another sign of the significance of the court’s recent decision narrowing the Voting Rights Act,” the New York Times reports.

“The justices appeared to splinter along ideological lines in the decision, with the court’s three liberals joined in dissent.”

Redistricting

Why Republicans Are Winning the Redistricting War

May 11, 2026 · 5:28 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “That is mostly because of two important criteria in redistricting: whether a party has full control of the governor’s office in a state and both chambers of its legislature — known as a trifecta — and whether the state has policies and laws that permit partisan redistricting.”

“Republicans have 23 trifectas across the country, compared with just 16 for Democrats. And most G.O.P.-controlled states have kept the map-drawing process in control of their state legislatures, which has given Republican lawmakers the power to redraw congressional districts. These maps often need to be signed into law by the governor.”

“Some Democratic-leaning states, by contrast, have adopted independent commissions to draw their congressional maps in an effort to make the redistricting process less political.”

Redistricting

Democrats Ask Supreme Court to Halt Virginia Ruling

May 11, 2026 · 4:13 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Democrats on Monday filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to halt a Virginia ruling invalidating a ballot measure that would have given their party an additional four winnable U.S. House seats.”

“The move came after the Virginia Supreme Court on Friday struck down a constitutional amendment that voters narrowly passed just last month. The 4-3 state court decision found that the Democratic-controlled legislature improperly began the process of placing the amendment on the ballot after early voting had begun in the Virginia’s general election last fall.”

Judiciary, Redistricting

Redistricting Won’t Protect Republicans from a Blue Wave

May 11, 2026 · 3:34 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The House map has taken on a larger GOP bias as a result of redistricting, although when it’s all said and done, the bias by one measure may essentially be the same as it was in 2018, when Democrats easily won the House.”

2026 Campaign, Redistricting

Democrats Say Redistricting War Isn’t Over

May 11, 2026 · 1:47 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) on Monday promised a ‘massive Democratic redistricting counteroffensive’ and said House Democrats would huddle Thursday on the ongoing partisan gerrymandering wars ahead of the 2026 midterm elections,” CNBC reports.

Redistricting

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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