A panel of judges ruled that North Carolina’s new congressional district maps, which would give Republicans a 10-4 advantage, are constitutional, the Raleigh News & Observer reports.
“The GOP-drawn maps would give Republicans a built-in advantage in future elections—but none of the reasons why challengers said the maps are unconstitutional stand up to legal scrutiny, the judges ruled.”
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) “gave a negative review of the House-passed plan to redistrict the state’s two congressional districts, suggesting it would create seats that would be too partisan-leaning,” the New Hampshire Union Leader reports.
Said Sununu: “I don’t love it. I don’t think it’s going to be the plan that ends up on my desk.”
“The comments threw a monkey wrench into a process Republican state party leaders hoped would contain little dissent within GOP ranks since they hold sway in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, state Senate and the corner office.”
“Tennessee Republicans will present plans to split booming Nashville and Davidson County into multiple congressional districts, paving the way for the party to dilute its existing Democratic voter base and gain an additional congressional seat,” the Tennessean reports.
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Cook Political Report: “The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP’s favor than the last decade’s. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden’s approval ratings are still mired in the low-to-mid 40s in November, that won’t be enough to save their razor-thin House majority (currently 221 to 212 seats).”
Key takeaway: “Because Democrats currently possess the lion’s share of marginal seats, estimating the practical effect of new lines in 2022 still points towards a wash or a slight GOP gain.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “There was a flurry of redistricting activity over the holidays, with 7 additional states finalizing their congressional maps.”
“Republicans are up a little overall in the roughly two-thirds of completed districts, while Democrats would have to sweep the Toss-ups — a very difficult task — just to achieve rough parity with what they currently hold in these states.”
“One of the country’s most gerrymandered political maps has suddenly been replaced by one of the fairest,” the New York Times reports.
“A decade after Michigan Republicans gave themselves seemingly impregnable majorities in the state Legislature by drawing districts that heavily favored their party, a newly created independent commission approved maps late Tuesday that create districts so competitive that Democrats have a fighting chance of recapturing the State Senate for the first time since 1984.”
“Michigan’s redistricting commission voted to adopt new congressional districts Tuesday, creating political boundaries for the state’s 13 U.S. House districts for the next decade,” the Detroit Free Press reports.
Politico: “Michigan’s new congressional map likely sets up three battleground seats for the next decade, while teeing up a Democratic member-on-member clash between Reps. Haley Stevens and Andy Levin.”
“The Virginia Supreme Court on Tuesday finalized the state’s new redistricting maps, bending to criticism that congressional representation for the Richmond region was split too many ways by keeping together the western Richmond suburbs,” the Richmond Times Dispatch reports.
Paul Waldman: “It’s still too early to say how all this will turn out, and the 2022 elections are also an uncertainty. But the big picture, as Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report says, is that ‘redistricting is shaping up to be close to a wash.’”
“And as Joel Wertheimer predicted at Data for Progress, ‘when redistricting is finished, more districts in 2022 will be to the left of Joe Biden’s 4.5-point national margin against Trump than in 2020.’ This is about as good an outcome as Democrats could have hoped for.”
“Arizona, one of the most bitterly divided swing states, finalized a new congressional map that could hand the GOP six of its nine congressional districts in 2022,” Politico reports.
“Democrats, who currently control five of the state’s nine seats, are probably staring down a short-term loss in the current political climate. But the new map, drawn over several months by a bipartisan panel of commissioners and adopted unanimously, ensures the state will continue to be a top House battleground for the next decade.”
Cook Political Report: “On Monday, California’s citizens’ redistricting commission voted 14-0 to approve a map that’s a dream for Democrats. Technically, the commission (five Democrats, five Republicans and four others) was prohibited from taking partisan or incumbent data into consideration.”
“But the end product features strong districts for California’s 42 Democratic incumbents (save for two who are retiring) and makes five out of 11 GOP incumbents more vulnerable.”
“Latino voters would see a major boost in political clout under new congressional and legislative districts approved unanimously Monday by the independent citizen panel charged with redrawing the state’s political map,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“Although the panel, created by voter initiative in 2008, does not take partisan balance into account in drawing district lines, the maps it produced all but guarantee that Democrats will retain super majorities in the Legislature and their current lopsided majority in California’s congressional delegation.”
Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) said she “totally got fucked” by the Democratic state legislature in redistricting, the Nevada Current reports.
Said Titus: “I’m sorry to say it like that, but I don’t know any other way to say it.”
“Titus was referring to a shift of Democrats away from the first congressional district, historically an ironclad safe seat for Democrats, in order to strengthen their position in the state’s two swing districts. She warned the three congressional seats held by Nevada Democrats are now at risk of turning Republican during the 2022 election cycle, under the new maps approved by the state lawmakers and the governor last month.”
She added: “You read that the Republicans are using gerrymandering to cut out Democratic seats, but they didn’t have to in this state. We did it to ourselves.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball reports there are now 26 states with congressional maps in place for the 2022 election.
“These 26 states will have a combined 169 U.S. House seats based on the new census, or about 39% of all the seats. Currently in these states, Republicans have a 96-70 edge. Based on the new apportionment, these states have collectively added 3 net seats, which accounts for the discrepancy between the number of seats these states currently have (166) compared to what they will have under the new census (169).”
“Based on our Crystal Ball ratings for the new districts in these completed states, we have 99 districts at least leaning to the Republicans, 65 at least leaning to the Democrats, and 5 Toss-ups. One of the Toss-ups is a newly-added seat in Colorado, CO-8; the other 4 are currently Democratic-held seats IA-3, IL-17, ME-2, and NC-1. So one way of looking at this is that the Republicans are up 3 seats in these states, collectively, while the Democrats would have to win all of the Toss-ups just to get to the 70 seats they currently hold in these states.”
Dallas Morning News: “Nearly a quarter of a million people were incarcerated in Texas when the Census was taken last year. When lawmakers redrew the state’s voting maps this fall, these inmates were counted in the prison towns where they were locked up, rather than where they lived beforehand.”
“A Dallas Morning News analysis of Census and prison data found this practice, which opponents call “prison gerrymandering,” inflates the political power of Republican districts while draining clout from Democratic strongholds. It also makes more conservative, rural areas of the state look larger and more diverse than they truly are.”
The Wall Street Journal finds just 12 politically competitive districts in the 22 states that have completed their House redistricting maps so far, down from 25 such districts currently.
“First came passage of one of the nation’s most restrictive voting bills. Then came efforts to overhaul the number of elected offices in one of Georgia’s largest counties,” Politico reports.
“Now, with the pending passage of a new congressional map, Republicans have taken another step toward dismantling the Atlanta-area engine that turned Georgia blue, powering President Joe Biden to victory in 2020 and flipping control of the Senate to Democrats.”
“Just as Georgia has emerged as a pivotal swing state, the GOP-controlled legislature has gone to extraordinary lengths to overhaul election administration, rewrite election rules and redraw political lines in the fast-growing metro region that is currently reshaping state politics.”
Jonathan Last: “Both parties participate in gerrymandering. But not equally. And one party has been making a good faith effort to try to roll gerrymandering back, while the other party has been leaning into it.”
“Look, I don’t want to get out over my skis here—and again, Democrats have not been total angels—but election reform should not be a suicide pact.”
David Wasserman: “By our estimate, neutral/commission maps in the blue states of California, Colorado, New Jersey, Virginia and Washington — 93 seats total — will end up costing Democrats 10 to 15 House seats they could have seized by gerrymandering, making Republicans even stronger favorites for House control.”
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Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.