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A Two-Front Political War

October 4, 2017 at 11:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

GOP strategist Bruce Mehlman released a new report on the political climate that is definitely worth perusing.

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Filed Under: Members, Trends

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

September 27, 2017 at 12:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I thought they were voting for libertarian Republicans. But after some soul-searching, I realized when they voted for Rand and Ron [Paul] and me in these primaries, they weren’t voting for libertarian ideas. They were voting for the craziest son of a bitch in the race. And Donald Trump won best in class.”

— Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), quoted by the Washington Examiner., explaining what motivates Tea Party voters.

Filed Under: Trends Tagged With: Thomas Massie

Partisans Stay Locked In

September 14, 2017 at 2:06 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

CBS News Nation Tracker: “This study shows party attachments have remained very stable in 2017, with neither Republicans nor Democrats able to draw many independents over to their side so far. Democrats aren’t becoming Republicans en masse, nor are Republicans becoming Democrats, and the few who have vacillated between parties aren’t as likely to vote in the first place — which sheds light on why today’s politics often seems dominated by partisans.”

“Overall, 91% of respondents identified with the same party in their most recent interview as they did the first time we talked to them this winter.”

Filed Under: Trends


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Taking Another Look at the Electoral Math

September 14, 2017 at 1:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

John Judis: “On one level, there’s no arguing with the math. If you take the percentage of Americans that the U.S. census defines as ‘minorities’ and project their past voting habits into the next decade and beyond, you’ll come up with a very sunny version of the Democrats’ prospects.”

“There are only two problems with this line of thinking, but they’re pretty big ones. For starters, the census prediction of a ‘majority-minority’ America — slated to arrive in 2044 — is deeply flawed. And so is the notion that ethnic minorities will always and forever continue to back Democrats in Obama-like numbers.”

Filed Under: Trends

The Retreat of the Moderates

September 6, 2017 at 1:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The following post for members is by David T.S. Jonas, who most recently served as policy director for Tom Perriello’s (D) campaign for Virginia Governor.

Even in 2017, you can sometimes see it. After Hurricane Harvey, after Charlottesville, after a grave national loss, some better part of us rises to the top. The noise cuts out, the hecklers get booed down, and the values that the overwhelming majority of us share get the attention they deserve.

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Filed Under: Members, Trends

Americans Have Lackluster Views of Their Country

September 6, 2017 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that just 28% of adults called America the “single best place to live in the world,” with another 17% calling it “among the very few best places.”

More respondents put United States closer to the middle of the pack, with 37% calling America merely “above average” and 14% rating the country as “average.” An additional four percent called the U.S. “below average” on the global scale.

Filed Under: Trends

The Ultimate Swing Voter

August 11, 2017 at 5:05 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Alexander Agadjanian takes a historical look at the vote choice among whites by educational background going back to 1952.

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Filed Under: Members, Trends

Exurbs Begin to Turn Away from Republicans

August 7, 2017 at 6:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Data from Gallup show 45.5% of adults in exurban communities self-identified as Republican in the second quarter of 2017, down from 49.6% in the first quarter of 2017 and 51.6% in the fourth quarter of 2016. It was also the lowest quarterly number for self-identified Republicans in the exurbs since 2013, the earliest numbers available.”

“The data also showed an increase in self-identified Democrats in exurban counties to 40.5% from 37.3% in the first quarter of 2017 and 36.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016. The 40.5% was the highest number recorded from Democrats since 2013.”

Filed Under: Trends

Politics Matters on Dating Sites

August 4, 2017 at 2:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

At this same time in 2016, 24.6% of women on eHarmony, and 16.5% of men, answered the political affiliation question on their profile page, according to Refinery29.

This year, those figures have peaked to 68% and 47%, respectively.

Filed Under: Trends

Baby Boomers Are No Longer the Largest Voting Bloc

July 31, 2017 at 7:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Baby Boomers and other older Americans are no longer the majority of voters in U.S. presidential elections,” according to Pew Research.

“Millennials and Generation Xers cast 69.6 million votes in the 2016 general election, a slight majority of the 137.5 million total votes cast, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. Meanwhile, Boomers and older voters represented fewer than half of all votes for the first time in decades.”

Filed Under: Trends

More People Paying Attention to Politics

July 20, 2017 at 2:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Pew Research: “Nearly six-in-ten women (58%) say they are paying increased attention to politics since Trump’s election, compared with 46% of men. Overall, more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents than Republicans and Republican leaners say they have become more attentive to politics. But there are similarly wide gender gaps in heightened interest to politics among members of both parties.”

Also interesting: “Most people (59%) say it is ‘stressful and frustrating’ to talk about politics with people who have a different opinion of Trump than they do; just 35% find such conversations ‘interesting and informative.'”

Filed Under: Trends

7 Trends Driving Our Political Disruption

July 13, 2017 at 8:11 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

GOP lobbyist Bruce Mehlman is out with a very interesting presentation which attempts to explain the root of Donald Trump’s popularity.

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Filed Under: Members, Trends

Big Majority Say U.S. Politics Is Less Civil Under Trump

July 3, 2017 at 11:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds 70% of Americans say the level of civility in Washington has gotten worse since President Trump was elected, while just 6% say the overall tone has improved.

For comparison, 35% in 2009 said civility in the country had declined in the U.S. following President Obama’s election while 21% thought civility and the tone of discourse in the country had improved.

The survey also shows distrust of many of the nation’s fundamental democratic institutions.

Filed Under: Trends

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

July 1, 2017 at 6:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“By 2040, 70 percent of Americans are expected to live in the 15 largest states, which are also home to the overwhelming majority of the 30 largest cities in the country. By extension, 30 percent of Americans will live in the other 35 states. That means that the 70 percent of Americans get all of 30 Senators and 30 percent of Americans get 70 Senators.”

— Political scientist David Birdsell, quoted by City Limits.

Filed Under: Trends

Big Majority of Americans Feel ‘Alarmed’ or ‘Uneasy’

June 29, 2017 at 12:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds that 42% of of those surveyed when asked how they felt when they think about how things are going in Washington today said there were “alarmed.” Another 33% feel “uneasy.” Just 11% choose the positive “excited.”

“The air of angst is bipartisan. Nine of 10 Democrats feel uneasy or alarmed; so do a majority of Republicans.”

Filed Under: Trends

Americans Say U.S. Political Debate is Increasingly Uncivil

June 19, 2017 at 10:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CBS News poll finds 73% of Americans say the tone of the political debate is encouraging political violence.

“Democrats are especially likely to say so. About a third of Americans consider the recent shooting of a Congressman and others a terrorist attack.”

Filed Under: Trends

Public Trust In Government Remains at Historic Lows

May 3, 2017 at 4:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research poll finds that the overall level of trust in government remains near historic lows; just 20% say they trust the government to do what’s right always or most of the time.

Far more say they trust the government only some of the time (68%); 11% volunteer that they never trust the government to do what’s right.

Filed Under: Trends

Nearly Half of Americans Believe In the ‘Deep State’

April 27, 2017 at 7:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that 48% of Americans believe in the concept of a deep state — i.e. “military, intelligence and government officials who try to secretly manipulate government policy” — and 35% dismiss it as a conspiracy theory.

The belief is very bipartisan. While 45% of Republicans believe it exists — perhaps believing it is undermining Trump even as we speak — 46% of Democrats also believe it exists — perhaps hoping it is undermining Trump even as we speak.

Filed Under: Trends

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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