Nate Silver:
“Mr. Romney’s mediocre favorability ratings at this early stage of the
race are no death sentence. There have been clear reversals in
favorability ratings in the recent past once the general election
campaign got under way, such as in 1988 and 1992… The favorability
deficit between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama is more likely to be meaningful
the longer it persists. If, for instance, we still see this
favorability deficit in July — and certainly if we see it in September
or October — the odds are fairly good that Mr. Obama will perform more
strongly than the economic fundamentals alone would dictate and could
win an election that he is otherwise ‘supposed’ to lose… For the time
being, I’d consider them a negative but fairly minor factor when we
evaluate his chances at victory.”
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