Ezra Klein worked with three political scientists to create a model to forecast the 2012 presidential. You predict how the economy will do, and where President Obama’s approval rating will be in 2012, and the model spits out the winner.
The inputs “may seem a bit thin. But it calls 12 of the past 16 elections right. The average error in its prediction of the two-party vote share is less than three percentage points.”
