A Very Stable Presidential Race

Nate Silver: “We’ve now been running our presidential forecast model for almost two months, but very little has changed in our analysis of the race. Each day, we have shown Barack Obama as a modest favorite to win re-election. At no point has projected margin of victory in the popular vote been smaller than 1.7 percentage points, or larger than 2.7 percentage points; it was 2.3 percentage points as of Tuesday evening’s forecast.”