Predicting the Convention Bumps

Tom Holbrook forecasts polling bumps coming out of the conventions of 3.6 percentage points for Mitt Romney and 1.1 percentage points for President Obama.

“Right now, the two candidates are in a tight race, with Obama holding a slight advantage in the polls. Based on my bump predictions, I expect that the race will continue to be tight after the conventions but that Romney will hold a slight lead.”