Why One Bad Debate Hurt Obama

Joshua Green: “Until just over a week ago, President Obama’s campaign was on the cusp of doing something unprecedented in modern presidential politics: turning the election into a referendum on the challenger, Mitt Romney. Why is that so special? Because every prior example of an incumbent running for reelection in recent times has wound up being a referendum on the guy in the White House.”

“Those who run the re-election campaigns for sitting presidents are usually loath to admit this, especially when the preceding four years have not been a runaway success. Obama’s campaign is no different.”

“This would have been an impressive bit of jujitsu had Obama been able to
sustain it. But of course he couldn’t. The president’s poor showing in
the first debate, and Romney’s crisp and effective contrast, have broken
the spell. Now Obama is the one trying to reassure frantic supporters
and Romney the one rising in the polls. This suggests the election will
revert to something more like the historical mean.”