All About the Midwest?

First Read: “Is this campaign about one region and one region alone? How the Midwest goes, so goes this election? Now the question is whether Mitt Romney and Republicans have made inroads in the Midwestern battlegrounds or not. They say they have. But our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Iowa and Wisconsin, plus our survey last week of Ohio, suggest that President Obama has built a firewall in the Midwest, even after Romney’s momentum from that first presidential debate.”

“In Wisconsin, Obama leads Romney by six points among likely voters, 51%-45%, which is virtually unchanged from the margin last month. In Iowa, Obama is up by eight points, 51%-43%, which also is nearly identical to where it was in September. And as we revealed last week, Obama was ahead in Ohio, 51%-45%. What’s significant here: If Obama wins all three states, he surpasses 270 electoral votes. But if Romney is able to pick off one of them, that widens the GOP’s path to 270 and narrows the Democratic one.”