Ohio Is Not a Toss Up

Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio — made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days — and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.

“There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich… It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election.”