Why Karl Rove May Fail

Nate Silver suggests Karl Rove’s latest effort to fund “electable” candidates in Republican primaries may actually fail.

“An analysis of Republican Senate primaries in 2010 and 2012 suggests that money is usually the least pressing problem for the incumbents and other establishment-backed candidates whom Mr. Rove’s group might be inclined to support. Instead, some insurgent candidates won their races despite having been at more than a 10-to-1 fund-raising disadvantage heading into the primary.”

“Does that mean there is literally no benefit to having more money in a Republican primary? Not exactly… there is a modest but positive correlation between the share of the funds that went to the establishment candidate and that candidate’s margin of victory or defeat. However, the relationship is much weaker than it is in general elections for the Senate, when fund-raising totals have about twice as much power to predict the margin between the Democratic and Republican candidates.”

Fox News: Rove under fire from the right.