Analyzing the Senate Gun Control Vote

Nate Silver models the Senate vote on gun background checks and finds that four senators that were projected by the model to be nay votes actually voted yes: Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Pat Toomey (R-PA), John McCain (R-AZ) and Susan Collins (R-ME).

The most unlikely no vote — excluding Sen. Harry Reid who voted nay for procedural reasons — was Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), who is not running for re-election until 2018. The model suggested there was a 87% chance she would vote in favor of the amendment.