Why Mark Pryor Is In Trouble

Harry Enten: “When Pryor first won his Senate seat in 2002, Arkansas was only 3pt more Republican than the nation in the nearest two presidential elections. Over the past two cycles, Arkansas averaged 14pt to the right of the country at large. That puts it on the same level as Alabama and more Republican than any other southern state, including Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. This [means] that instead of Arkansas being the most Republican southern state as it is today on the presidential level, it was the most Democratic southern state. Other data sends the same signal. At the time of his 2008 reelection bid, Democrats controlled 75% of the Arkansas House of Representatives and 77% of the state Senate; now it’s only 48% and 40%, respectively. Three of the four Arkansas members of the House of Representatives were Democrats in 2008, while it is 0 today.”