Does Obama’s Approval Rate Matter?

Real Clear Politics shows President Obama’s average net approval rate is now underwater by 6.6 percentage points.

Harry Enten: “Obama’s approval rating can greatly affect the 2014 midterm elections and, to a lesser extent, the 2016 presidential election… If the president’s approval rating were to hold, a very simple regression finds the Democrats would lose 30 seats in the House.”

“To be sure, the incumbent president’s approval rating matters less when he is not running for re-election… [Even so,] once we control for the economy, every 5pt increase in a president’s net approval rating increases his party’s candidate’s margin by 1pt in the [next] presidential election per Drew Linzer.”