Warning Sign for Democrats in Midterm Elections

Charlie Cook:
“Something that might be of concern to Democrats, however, is that in
this year’s data, independents are tilting Republican by 18 points, 43
percent to 25 percent. This is even more than the 14-point edge that the
GOP had in the 2010 polling (40 percent to 26 percent) and dramatically
different from the 1-point Democratic edge in 2012 (35 percent to 34
percent). While independents tend to vote in smaller numbers than they
do in presidential years, so do some of the strongest Democratic groups,
namely minorities, youths, and, in particular, young women. These are
the voters who made a huge difference for the Democrats in the 2008 and
2012 elections. This turnout disparity between midterm and presidential
years spells trouble for Democrats. They overcame that obstacle in 2006
by running strongly among those independents who had turned on President
Bush over the war in Iraq, among other things. The forces at work are
considerably different this time around.”