Forecast Says GOP Slightly Favored to Take Senate

The Monkey Cage finds Republicans with a 54% chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s midterm elections.

“Our initial Senate forecast for 2014 suggested that Republicans had a solid chance of taking back the Senate.  Now we want to show how they can do it.  Our model suggests, in fact, if Republicans win the Senate elections in only four states — Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, and Montana — then they are very likely to take control of the chamber.”