Senate Control at Tipping Point

Alan Abramowitz updates his generic ballot and finds the battle for control of the Senate is a toss up.

“Because there is a Democrat in the White House and Democrats have 21 seats at stake compared with only 15 seats for Republicans, the GOP is almost guaranteed to make gains in the 2014 Senate elections. Based on the generic ballot forecasting model, Democrats will need a cushion of at least five points on the generic ballot question in early September in order to have a better than 50/50 chance of keeping control of the Senate. The good news for Democrats is that any Republican majority in the 114th Senate is almost certain to be very narrow, and the Senate seats that are up for grabs in 2016 would give them an excellent chance of regaining control of the Senate in that year.”