The Tea Party May Not Be a Factor in 2016

National Interest: “The common wisdom holds that the GOP 2016 presidential race will boil down to a joust between the ‘establishment’ and the ‘insurgents.’ … It has only one small problem. It is wrong.”

“Exit and entrance polls of Republican primaries and caucuses going back to 1996 show that the Republican presidential electorate is remarkably stable. It does not divide neatly along establishment-versus-conservative lines. Rather, the GOP contains four discrete factions that are based primarily on ideology, with elements of class and religious background tempering that focus. Open nomination contests during this period are resolved first by how candidates become favorites of each of these factions, and then by how they are positioned to absorb the voting blocs of the other factions as their favorites drop out.”