Republicans Now Favored to Take Control of Senate

Nate Silver: “We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber… You’ll find that our characterization of the 36 races in most cases is very close to that issued by such forecasters as the Cook Political Report and Rothenberg Political Report. We’re looking at the same sort of information they are, and they have strong track records, so it’s natural there should be similarities.”

“One point of difference is that we’re much more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. These races have a lot in common, taking place in three red states where longtime Democratic incumbents have retired.”

Meanwhile, Paul Krugman says the relaunch of Silver’s FiveThirtyEight “looks like something between a disappointment and a disaster.”