Will Clinton Effectively Run as an Incumbent?

Harry Enten: “Early polls often don’t foretell the eventual margins of the primaries, something that shouldn’t be surprising. But what if Clinton in fact wins the Democratic nomination in a landslide, while the Republican nominee does so only after a long and close race?”

“History suggests possibly. There’s been a strong correlation between the margin of victory in the primaries and the later margin in the general election. But correlation isn’t always causation. Let’s look at the data.”