Nationalization of Races is Challenge for Democrats

Alan Abramowitz notes that in U.S. Senate elections since the 1970s “voting decisions in these contests have become increasingly influenced by opinions of the incumbent president’s performance. This relationship set a new record in 2012.”

This makes it very hard for Democrats to offset predicted gains by Republicans in states like Montana and South Dakota by flipping Senate seats in states like Georgia or Kentucky.

“Between 2000 and 2012, almost 90% of seat switches in Senate elections were in a consistent partisan direction. Moreover, in the four federal elections between 2006 and 2012, this trend has become even stronger. Nearly all of the seat switches in this quartet of elections — 23 of 24, or 96% — have been in a consistent partisan direction.”