The Myth of the Third Term Curse

Despite assertions otherwise, Jeff Greenfield says Americans “are probably pretty OK with giving a party a third term in the White House.”

“Viewed through this prism, the idea of an American electorate ‘reluctant’ to give a third straight White House term to a political party looks far less convincing, and far more the product of highly ‘contingent’ events. Indeed, the only recent example where voters clearly rejected a third term for the incumbent party was 2008–when a collapsing economy and the Iraq misadventure doomed John McCain’s hopes of succeeding George W. Bush. And it’s certainly possible that a continued fall in Obama’s approval ratings will prove a burden to Hillary Clinton or any other Democrat in 2016.”